AMERICAN LEAGUE PREDICTIONS 2024
2023 wasn't pretty for Baseball Fan Perspective predictions. However, "some" lessons were learned from those mistakes, and at the very least, it will be difficult to do any worse in 2024.
For about a week now, I’ve been trying to think of a good way to summarize my 2023 predictions. In the end, nothing positive came of it. Simply put…at best, they were crap.
As you’ll see by each division below, there is a strikethrough on any team that didn’t finish in the predicted order I believed they would. I haven’t been in school for 20 years, but I’m assuming an F is still the worst grade a teacher can give. Is there anything below an F? If so, that would be my score for AL predictions last year. My pick average was .200 after correctly placing three teams out of 15 in the proper order in which they finished in the standings.
My goal this year was for less analysis and overthinking. The key is to not make the same mistakes again. The problem is that I don’t really understand what those errors were and, therefore, more likely than not, will repeat them once again in 2024. Let’s try this once more.
AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST
My 2023 predictions *The incorrect team has a strikethrough with the actual squad that finished in that position listed to its right. Bold indicates that I correctly predicted the proper place for that team.
1st: Blue Jays (Orioles)
2nd: Yankees (Rays)
3rd: Orioles (Blue Jays)
4th: Rays (Yankees)
5th: Red Sox
2024 PREDICTIONS
1st: Blue Jays
Like: I just said earlier -the key is to not make the same mistakes again- and if that means not picking a team to win a division after incorrectly doing so in the prior season, then I’m already in trouble. But, I can’t help myself here. I like the Jays starting rotation more than any other by far in this division. With key staff injuries already to each of the other four teams in the AL East, this rotation, led by last year’s AL strikeout leader Kevin Gausman, should be good enough to carry Toronto to the top.
Dislike: The aura in Canada. It could have been great if Shohei Ohtani was actually on that plane in early December headed for Toronto. But, he wasn’t and instead signed with the Dodgers. On paper, the lineup is decent, but the struggles of Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette in three October appearances are concerning. I don’t know if they’re going to be big game players at some point in their careers, but both will need to step it up a notch when it matters to reach that “Star” label they’ve had for a few years now.
A final thought: If Toronto is to win the AL East in ‘24, they will have to improve considerably on their record versus division opponents. The Jays ranked last in the East with a 21-31 mark.
2nd: Orioles
Like: A youthful and talented lineup with good starting pitching. Regardless of losing SP Kyle Bradish (12-7, 2.83 ERA in ‘23) for at least a month to a UCL sprain in his throwing arm, they added former Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes to lead the rotation in ‘24.
Dislike: All the hype and talk about 20-year-old Jackson Holliday earning a spot on the big league club to begin the season went down the drain when he was optioned to Triple-A a few days ago for the start of the new campaign. He didn’t do anything wrong. His spring numbers were good enough to make the team, but according to baseball operations executive Mike Elias, he isn’t ready to face good left-handed pitching and also needs more defensive reps at second base. Whatever the reasons, a lot of the early season anticipation that Orioles fans had for Opening Day is now gone after being told by Elias earlier in the offseason that baseball’s top prospect had a “very strong possibility” of breaking camp with the big league club.
A final thought: Can the O’s live up to the high expectations they created last season by winning the division a year or two earlier than most expected? If they fall back a bit and don’t win 101 games again, but still make the playoffs, then all should be good in Baltimore.
3rd: Yankees
Like: The addition of Juan Soto with a hopefully “healthy” Aaron Judge forms a dynamic duo. If Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton can turn back the clock six years, then this is a formidable lineup. If not, then…
Dislike: Rizzo and Stanton. What are the Yankees going to get? It’s almost a forgone conclusion every season that Stanton and Rizzo will end up on the IL at some point. Add the loss of reigning AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole for at least a month due to right elbow nerve inflation and we’re looking at a team that has no chance to win the division if not fully healthy.
A final thought: If Cole is back in May and “the other guys” named Carlos Rodon and ‘Nasty’ Nestor Cortes can stay off the IL, then maybe this is a playoff team. But, even with a full year of Judge, this feels like an “everything must go right” situation for New York to have a chance at October baseball. The wiggle room for anything less isn’t there.
4th: Rays
Like: Right where I predicted them last year and, of course, Tampa being Tampa, nearly won the division with 99 wins. Even though I am picking against the Rays for a second time, they always do more with less than any other team in recent baseball memory. Unlike Toronto, this team has an aura of winning about them that is highly respectable.
Dislike: Starting options after Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale. I don’t know where they are going to find enough innings in the rotation to keep the bullpen from getting overused and completely wiped out by August. However, this is the Rays and maybe they will once again find a way.
A final thought: Health isn’t key because they win when unhealthy every year. The key is using whatever pieces they have on the field and playing the Tampa Bay way (which despite being cliche, is fair to use when talking about this franchise). What else is there to say? My best guess is because I am picking against the Rays, they will probably do far better than they should and make the playoffs once again.
5th: Red Sox
Like: It’s the one correct pick I had in this division in ‘23. Since it worked last year, I’ll go with it again this time around. I do like Rafael Devers anchoring the lineup. I do like leadoff hitter Jarren Duran’s potential after batting .295 with 24 stolen bases in 334 at-bats last year, BUT…
Dislike: I don’t like much else. Trevor Story needs to get back to his Coors Field days in Colorado. If he comes close to his pre-Boston production, then that will help, but not enough to salvage the season for the Sox.
The rotation is not very good with or without Lucas Giolito. Why people thought the loss of Giolito was a big deal is kinda funny considering his near 5.00 ERA over the previous two seasons. What was he going to do in a hitter-friendly park like Fenway?
A final thought: This Boston squad doesn’t look much better than the ‘23 version. The key is to win as many games outside of the AL East as possible and hope to hang around until the dog days of summer.
AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL
1st: Guardians (Twins)
2nd: White Sox (Tigers)
3rd: Twins (Guardians)
4th: Royals (White Sox)
5th: Tigers (Royals)
2024 PREDICTIONS
1st: Guardians
Like: Let’s make it 2-for-2 on picking the same incorrect division winner from a year ago. I thought this team was good enough to win the AL Central last season and instead, they finished 11 games back in third place. In 2024, I still believe they are good enough to win the division. Here’s why.
Second-year pitchers Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen are quality options behind No. 1 Shane Bieber, who needs to get back to his dominant self from a few years ago. Emmanuel Clase has been one of the best closers in the game over the last few years and the bullpen should be solid.
The top of the batting order with Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, and Andres Gimenez could be better, but it could be a lot worse. In this division, it will do. All four of the aforementioned players are solid hitters and three of them are threats on the basepaths. It would be an even better lineup if the rest of it was solid as well, but…
Dislike: It seems like Cleveland never signs a big free-agent bat in the offseason. Someone who can be an instant game-changer and hit behind Jose Ramirez would go a long way in improving the team’s offensive potential. Recently, this franchise feels like it’s always one hitter away from not just being good enough to win the AL Central but becoming a true World Series contender as well. It’s the same situation this year.
A final thought: Good enough to win the AL Central, but not a scary team come playoff time unless a big piece or two are added at some point to the lineup during the season.
2nd: Twins
Like: Pablo Lopez as the ace. (11-8, 3.66 ERA, 234 K in 194 innings).
Dislike: The rotation after Lopez. Joe Ryan can be good, Bailey Ober can be good, and maybe the rest of them can be good. But, will they be in 2024?
Let me be clear about the offense. I do not believe at all in outfielder Byron Buxton. His name being mentioned as some sort of superstar in the making is tiring now. All the hype and very little to show for it in nine seasons in Minnesota. If he remains on the field for more than 100 games for the first time since 2017 then we’ll revisit Buxton’s value. Until then, he’s useless and will likely have little impact on how the Twins do in the division.
A final thought: The Twins won this division easily in 2023 without Buxton and the young ‘Grand Slam King’ Royce Lewis for most of the campaign. Minnesota has as good a chance as any team in the AL Central to finish at the top again with or without two of its biggest names mentioned in the previous sentence. Have I touched upon my thoughts about Buxton yet?
3rd: Tigers
Like: On paper, this is a difficult squad to figure out, but many expect they will be good and possibly compete for a division crown. They finished second last year despite only winning 78 contests.
It all starts with their young hitters Spencer Torkelson (24), Riley Greene (23), Kerry Carpenter (26) and Parker Meadows (24). They are all talented and easy to root for, but how good this young crop can potentially be has to start showing on the field this year. Each of these players has a lot to prove.
Dislike: Pitching as a whole. If starting hurler Tarik Skubal is as good as many believe and is the intended future ace of this staff, then the southpaw will have to toss more than the 80.1 innings he managed in 2023. It’s hard to trust the guys behind him like Kenta Maeda and the oft-injured Jack Flaherty.
A final thought: There is very little I like about this team until the young guys prove themselves. The roster looks mediocre on paper, which in this case, might be good enough to win the worst division in baseball, but I’ll stick with a middle-of-the-pack finish.
4th: Royals
Like: Right where I had them last year despite their record of 56-106 being far worse than envisioned. Surely it will improve in ‘24. If it does, the key reason will be shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. I have very little doubt that Kansas City made the right move by signing this 23-year-old to an 11-year deal in hopes of him being the current and future star of the franchise.
Dislike: Bullpen. Look at these names and you’ll see why. It’s a far cry from the 2015 World Series team with Greg Holland and Wade Davis lurking at the back end.
A final thought: Maybe the additions of Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha make the rotation a bit more respectable than last year, but I must see it to believe it. If not, then there’s little reason to believe the Royals are better than a third-place team.
5th: White Sox
Like: Luis Robert Jr. finally stayed healthy for the first time in his four-year career in ‘23. He only hit .264 but had 38 homers, 36 doubles and 20 stolen bases in 145 games. Now that Robert has proven he can play nearly a full season, can the best player on the White Sox take it to the next level? The MVP kind of level?
Dislike: Yoan Moncada. The infielder has never lived up to the hype of the five-year/$70 million Chicago gifted him and thankfully for the sake of the Sox, there is a $5 million buyout option on his contract after this season. Moncada is rarely healthy and strikes out three times as often as he draws a walk. With 907 career strikeouts to just 301 walks, we’re looking at the second coming of Javier Baez. At least Baez had one good year in 2018 when he finished second for the NL MVP.
Oh yeah. I almost forgot. The South Siders might have the worst pitching staff in baseball and certainly in the AL Central.
A final thought: Saying that the key to the White Sox season is health would be wrong. Health is too simple a word to use here because even if everyone on this team stays on the field for the entire season, they won’t compete for a division crown with their current pitching staff. Picking this team to make the playoffs last year was a mistake. A mistake I don’t intend to repeat for a very long time. My confidence is high that this is right where the Sox belong.
AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST
1st: Astros
2nd: Mariners (Rangers)
3rd: Angels (Mariners)
4th: Rangers (Angels)
5th: Athletics
2024 PREDICTIONS
1st: Astros
Like: Until they lose the AL West or show signs that they are due to surrender it, then I am not changing my pick over a grueling 162-game season.
There are only two teams in MLB that I am high on in all three departments. The other we’ll get to in the National League predictions. The veterans in both the lineup, starting pitching staff and bullpen do not cause much concern. It’s hard to nitpick with a team that has won this division six times in the last seven years.
Dislike: Is Yordan Alvarez really going to be hitting second all season? What are managers thinking these days by putting the best slugger they have in the two-hole? It’s happening far too often around MLB. With Houston specifically, I have one question. Why mess with the usual order atop a veteran lineup that has been this dominant for so long? The good news is that new manager Joe Espada can change it anytime he wants.
A final thought: There’s a great chance this franchise wins the AL West again. Even with a few early-season injuries and popular manager Dusty Baker now retired, it’s difficult to envision the ‘Stros being anything worse than the top wild-card team. I am not confident in saying that about any other American League squad.
2nd: Rangers
Like: They tied the Astros atop the division with 90 wins last year and in 2024 the additions of rookies Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter for a full season make this the scariest AL lineup for my money. There’s not a weak spot anywhere and this team will be going up against the putrid Angels and Athletics pitching staffs 26 times combined. That’s very nice for them.
Dislike: The starting rotation. Nathan Eovaldi was fantastic in last year’s postseason, but so was Jordan Montgomery, who is still hanging around in free agency. If Montgomery were to miraculously re-sign with Texas, then that would help this staff immensely and might even tempt me to pick this team to dethrone Houston for the division. But, back to reality, that’s not likely going to happen and as it stands right now, there’s not much to get excited about after Nate. Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney, Dane Dunning…We get it. They are all average to slightly above-average major league pitchers. Is that good enough to win the AL West?
A final thought: Even if veteran hurler Max Scherzer comes back for a healthy second half, I don’t think he’s good enough anymore to make a huge difference for Texas down the stretch. The offense is great. The pitching is not. They’ll be good overall, but not great. 92 wins and a playoff berth feels about right.
3rd: Mariners
Like: The starting rotation. This could potentially be the most durable 1-5 in MLB. As long as I don’t have to hear George Kirby openly complain about going back out for another inning because his manager needs him to, then this will be a pitching staff to believe in.
Dislike: Something has been missing in the Mariners lineup for the last few seasons. There’s a star named Julio Rodriguez. Everyone knows that. But, what else is there to fear? I don’t see anything that indicates this offense will be much of a threat over 162 games. The lineup is kind of like Cleveland’s with their best hitter Jose Ramirez as the focal point and everyone else is decent. Seattle’s offense is OK, but can it give the pitching staff enough run support to win 90 or more games?
A final thought: Last year, I picked the M’s to finish second and they came close. However, for this season, unless some very serious misfortunes happen to the current Astros and Rangers roster, it’s difficult to see a way the Mariners finish better than third or worse than third in the AL West. They are a third-place kinda team in this division and much like last year should hang around in the wild card race.
4th: Angels
Like: I like that Mike Trout is stuck in an awful situation, which in reality, he created. Why I chose this team last year to finish ahead of the eventual World Series champs is a great question. Probably because I figured a healthy Shohei Ohtani, Trout and Anthony Rendon could make the AL West interesting. Nope.
Dislike: The idea that a healthy Trout and Rendon playing to their capabilities could put the Angels over the top. We’ve heard this every year in the Trout era and it continues to this day. To the believers out there, it’s not happening. Neither of these guys has earned much of their ridiculous contracts. My belief in Mike and Anthony being the talents they once were left me long ago. They are two of the most overrated players by contract value in MLB history.
A final thought: Ohtani at least brought some excitement to the Halos last year and kept the team in the playoff race for a while. But there’s nothing about this squad that should give Anaheim fans any hope of winning more than 73 games again. If another Angel on a subpar team wins an MVP award, I’m going to vomit. If Trout wants his fourth Most Valuable Player, then carry this franchise to the playoffs instead of giving false hope to your faithful followers year after year.
5th: Athletics
Like: Hmmm…let me think about this for the next six months.
Dislike: That the A’s may lose more than 112 games in 2024. Are they any better than 2023’s version of the Green and Gold? It’s close.
A final thought: If Oakland finishes ahead of the Angels, I will be very impressed and it will give me more ammo against Trout and Rendon next year. If the A’s win 60 games and finish in last place, I will also be impressed. Honestly, I have no idea what would be considered unimpressive given the current state of this franchise.
Round 2 of the predictions continues on Wednesday with the National League. Surely, the above picks will hit at a better clip than last season’s .200 mark. Right? If not, comment below and let me know your thoughts on the predictions. I am very interested in what you think.
Talk soon. Thanks for reading.