2023 AL EAST PREDICTIONS
Four of the five teams in this division finished with a winning record last season. Could that happen again this year?
Since 2010, the AL East has not been dominated year after year by any one team. Both the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox have won the division four times in that span. The Tampa Bay Rays have three division crowns, while the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays have one apiece.
The Yanks are the defending AL East Champs. Last year they took the division by seven games over the Jays and were led by AL MVP, Aaron Judge, who had a season for the ages. If Judge puts up similar numbers again, and the other Yankees bats around him can produce at a high level, then New York may very well repeat in 2023.
This is the first of six divisions I will be predicting from first place to last before opening day. As my picks were being made, I realized that the AL East will probably be the most difficult of all to predict from top to bottom.
2022 FINAL STANDINGS
PREDICTIONS
1st Place: Toronto Blue Jays
LIKES
Lineup: On the assumption that leadoff man, George Springer, can, at the very least, give the Jays 140 games played this year (2018 was the last time he hit that mark), then I’ll take this lineup over any in the division with Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the rest of the gang hitting behind him.
Starting Staff: With Alek Manoah taking the hill on opening day, and Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt presumed to follow, the top three in the rotation have been about as consistent over the past few seasons as you can ask for. Gausman has proved to be a valuable pitching asset since he turned 30. The main question mark for me is Jose Berrios (See ‘Key Player’ below).
CONCERNS
A lot of right-handed arms: For as good as the starting rotation and fairly deep bullpen are, there is a lack of quality left-handed arms on this team. Yusei Kikuchi will be their #5 starter, but he hasn’t done much in his four-year MLB career. In the pen, the top relievers are all righties.
Speed on the basepaths: Only two players stole more than 10 bags for the Jays last season; Springer (14), and Bichette (13). With the addition of Daulton Varsho, who had 16 last year with the D-backs, perhaps the stolen base numbers rise. If Whit Merrifield, who only had one SB in ‘22 while on the Jays (16 overall), can ever get near 40 again, as he had in 2021 with the Royals, then scratch this issue as being a concern.
KEY PLAYER
Jose Berrios: A 5.23 ERA and 1.42 WHIP are nowhere near good enough for a guy who from 2017-2019, was looking like one of the future top aces in MLB. Since 2020 he’s had some injuries to deal with, but last year threw 172 innings and looked like anything but an ace. If he can get it going, that will help steady this already solid rotation.
FINAL THOUGHTS
2015 was the last time Toronto won the East. As this team stands now, there is very little I don’t like. They’ve been kind of the ‘sexy’ pick for the past few years to make a run at the World Series. I’m not sure yet if that will happen this year (stay tuned on Wednesday, March 29th for my Playoff Predictions), but this feels like the time that the Jays will fly to the top of the crop and make their presence known.
2nd Place: New York Yankees
LIKES
Aaron Judge: Just a reminder that this 30-year-old hit .311 with 62 homers last year. I could give you more standout numbers, but those two alone should automatically label a player in the ‘Great Season’ category.
Rotation: I would have said two days ago, as it looks right now, that despite newly acquired, Carlos Rodon, starting the season on the IL with a forearm strain, this rotation will be a force with Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, and (hard swallow) Luis Severino. However, as of this writing, it looks as if Severino will be joining Rodon on the IL with a low-grade lat strain. On the assumption that Rodon will return at some point in April, and Severino isn’t out for too long, then they will be fine.
CONCERNS
Rotation: The AL East is loaded with offensive talent. If only Cole and Cortes will be healthy for the entire season, then there could be some issues keeping runs off the board. The Yankees pen isn’t 100% healthy right now either, so I think that April will be a very interesting month for the Bronx Bombers.
The Hasbeens: The Yankees’ key offensively is power. They led the league last year with 254 homers and I am sure will be up there again. Despite those gaudy numbers, Anthony Rizzo hit .224 last year (.265 career), DJ LeMahieu his .261 (.297 career), and Josh Donaldson, a one-time MVP hit .222 with just 15 homers in 132 games. If these guys can find their old selves again, then this team could easily win the division despite the pitching concerns.
KEY PLAYER
Carlos Rodon: He was the main off-season acquisition for this team. He’s had an injury-prone career but is very good when on the bump. The early season IL stint wouldn’t be concerning if not for his history. Cole will be Cole, but Rodon will need to be that dominant #2 man once back.
FINAL THOUGHTS
The Severino injury is concerning. He was top-notch in ‘17 and ‘18, but since those years, staying on the field has been the issue. It’s a good thing the Yanks have as consistent an ace as Cole because as much I like Rodon, I don’t trust him to stay healthy. The lineup will carry this team to a lot of wins, and making the playoffs shouldn’t be an issue.
3rd Place: Baltimore Orioles
LIKES
The Youngsters: Catcher, Adley Rutschman, and third baseman, Gunnar Henderson are two players that I am excited to watch this season. With arguably the best farm system in all of baseball, the future is looking good.
Lineup: Between the young lads mentioned above, and the power potential between the Anthony Santander/Ryan Mountcastle duo in the middle of the order, scoring runs should not be too much of an issue.
CONCERNS
Pitching: You’d have to be a foolish fan to feel comfortable with a starting rotation led by Kyle Gibson, Cole Irvin, Dean Kremer, and Kyle Bradish. The kid everyone believes will be the future ace of the staff, Grayson Rodriguez, will likely win the fifth starter position out of camp. There hasn’t been an official word yet. As for the bullpen, I like Felix Bautista closing games (65.2 innings pitched with 88 K’s and a 2.19 ERA), but the depth after him could be an issue.
Low on-base players: The fact that last year’s AL Rookie of the Year, Rutschman, wasn’t called up until May 21st and still led the team in walks, is scary in a not-so-positive way. Adley played 111 games and had 65 walks. Next on the list was Anthony Santander with 55. Their team on-base percentage was just .305.
KEY PLAYER
Cedric Mullins: He’s the table setter, and had an off year in 2022 when compared to his ‘21 campaign.
2021- .291 AVG, .360 OBP, 30 homers, 37 doubles
2022- .258 AVG, .318 OBP, 16 homers, 32 doubles
He’ll probably steal close to 40 bags this season but needs to get on base more frequently if the Orioles want to contend.
FINAL THOUGHTS
The O’s surprised everyone with an 86-win 2022, just one season after going 52-110. Maybe they keep getting better and their rotation is stronger than I’m giving it credit for, but there are the Blue Jays and Yanks, followed by a decent drop to the third-best team in this division in my mind. They can stay ahead of the Rays and Sox and should be in the mix for a Top 6 playoff spot come September.
4th Place: Tampa Bay Rays
LIKES
ERA: Since 2019, the Rays have finished in the Top 5 in MLB in Earned Run Average. They find ways to keep runs off the board every year despite keeping their starting pitchers workload at what seems like the bare minimum a Major League staff could get away with. The last time a player threw anywhere close to 200 innings in a season for this franchise was in 2019 when Charlie Morton hit the 194 2/3 mark.
Bullpen: In 2022, Jason Adam and Pete Fairbanks led this team in Saves with eight apiece. To repeat that one more time…Just eight! Every year this pen seems to have a different closer every month and still finds a way to finish games and make a run at the playoffs with few issues.
CONCERNS
Tyler Glasnow: This time it’s an oblique strain that will likely keep him out for the first two months of the season. I’ve been hearing about Glasnow and how good he is for more than a few years now. The bottom line is that there comes a point when you have to be real and stop thinking that a player is going to be one of the future aces of your team. He’s hurt every year. He’s been in the league since 2016 and has never thrown 100 innings in a season. At age 29, and with a career ERA of exactly 4.00 to go along with just a 20-20 win/loss record, I’m not banking on him to be the player the Rays are hoping for.
Starting Pitching: With Glasnow already out for likely one-third of the season, other than Shane McClanahan, is there anyone in the rotation who will be asked to throw 150+ innings this season? Is there anyone capable of it?
KEY PLAYER
Brandon Lowe: It would be too easy to say Glasnow here, and I’m not wasting my 'Key Player’ spot on a guy who I think will fall short of 100 innings once again this year. Lowe, on the other hand, struggled in 65 games last season after coming back from a stress reaction in his lower back. He hit just .221 in those appearances with eight homers. In 2021, he hit .247 but had the power stats with 39 homers and 99 RBIs. If Lowe and Wander Franco are back to their ‘21 forms, then this team might finish in a higher position than my predicted 4th spot.
FINAL THOUGHTS
This is the year the Rays finally come back down to earth. The last time Tampa was not in the Top 3 in the AL East was in 2016 when they finished in last place. So, maybe, this is a bold prediction having them finish in 4th. When I look at this team, I see too many holes and injury concerns with both the offense and pitching. Then again, this is the Rays, and if there was one team in the division I had to stay away from betting against, this is that franchise.
5th Place: Boston Red Sox
LIKES
The WBC version of Masataka Yoshida: .409 batting average, two homers, and 13 RBI in seven games played in the World Baseball Classic. If the Red Sox get those numbers on average every week or so, then I like their chances to surprise some teams and finish at least third in this division. But, that’s not going to happen. In reality, I do like what I saw from Yoshida and if he is going to be hitting cleanup for the Sox, he should drive in 80 to 100 runs or more.
Rafael Devers: He’s 26, and hits for average and power. The third baseman doesn’t strike out a whole lot, relatively speaking. You know what you’re going to get from him every year. I love consistent players.
CONCERNS
Starting Rotation: If this was a year we could go back in time to maybe, 2017, and bring back to the present the trio of Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, and James Paxton, then I would argue that this team will compete for the 2023 AL East Title. Since that is impossible, we are dealing with the ‘23 versions of all of these pitchers, and not one of them gives me (and I would hope most fans as well) a sense of optimism.
Offensive Question Marks: As good as Yoshida could be, Boston fans won’t know what he really can do until the regular season begins. Justin Turner is a fine hitter, but for how much longer? He’s 38 now and hasn’t exactly been a player you can count on for a full season of work throughout his career. Overall, if this lineup gets banged up with injuries, there are going to be major problems in the depth department.
KEY PLAYER
The Entire Pitching Staff: You would think with the names Sale, Kluber, Paxton, and even their much younger starting pitcher, Garrett Whitlock, that it would be the bullpen that is more concerning for the Sox. The truth is, right now, with Paxton out to start the year (hamstring) as well as Whitlock (recovering from hip surgery), I’m more comfortable with their pen and names like Kenley Jansen, John Schreiber, Chris Martin, and Richard Bleier.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Paxton has never come close to pitching 200 innings in a season (career-high 160 1/3 in 2018). Sale has thrown less than 50 innings combined over the last three seasons for a whopping 90 million dollars. Corey Kluber, was decent last year with the Rays, giving them 164 innings, but even he is prone to being on the shelf of late.
Of all my 1-5 predictions in the AL East, I am most confident in this one.
That wraps up the AL East predictions. Up next is the AL Central. Thanks for reading.