2023 AL WEST PREDICTIONS
The West will be wild, and there should be no shortages of interesting storylines to follow from opening day on.
Six straight ALCS appearances by the Astros is a show of pure greatness in Major League Baseball. Last year’s World Series Champs won the West by 16 games and cruised in the playoffs, only losing two games total in three series’ combined. This is not only the team to beat in this division, but in all of baseball, and will continue to be until their amazing run, which started in 2017 with their first World Series win in franchise history, finally comes to an end.
Other teams are lurking in this division that would love nothing more than to end the Astros’ dominance. If it’s going to happen in the AL West this year, then three of the four franchises will have to take advantage of situations such as Houston’s “Face of the Franchise”, Jose Altuve, being out until at least June.
The talent might be there for the Mariners, Angels, and Rangers, but showing up to work every day and being productive will ultimately be the only way Houston is dethroned. As for Oakland, to put it nicely, their focus should be on finding a new home.
2022 FINAL STANDINGS
PREDICTIONS
1st Place: Houston Astros
LIKES
Bats: Despite losing Jose Altuve until at least June as he recovers from thumb surgery after being drilled during the World Baseball Classic by Rockies closer, Daniel Bard, this lineup is still deep enough to score plenty of runs. With the addition of first baseman, Jose Abreu, they’ve added another quality contact hitter in the middle of the order. Abreu is a lifetime .292 hitter and was the lone offensive threat on the White Sox that could be counted on to play close to 160 games every year. Having Jose hit behind Jeremy Peña, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, and Kyle Tucker means a seventh career 100 RBI season is very possible.
Pitching: 2022 AL Cy Young award winner, Justin Verlander, is now on the Mets. Starting pitchers, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, and Luis Garcia are still on the Astros. Add together those three arms with one of the best bullpens in the league, and you start to see why their team ERA was second in the Majors at 2.90 last season. I expect the ‘Stros to once again be at or near the top in most pitching categories in ‘23.
CONCERNS
Jose Altuve out for a while: It’s not that Houston doesn’t have the resources to withstand Altuve’s loss, it’s the fact that they are in a division with three other potential teams that might pose a threat to the AL West Champ. However, everyone deals with injuries, and some in this division are in far worse shape than the Astros if they lose a bat like Jose’s. I’m minimally concerned at this time.
Yordan Alvarez and the “sore” hand issues: I don’t know what it is about his hands, but for the past year, they have both given him enough of a problem that he has had to miss some time. As of now, he is good to go for the start of the regular season. The concern for me is that there hasn’t been a clear answer as to the cause of the soreness. Is this going to be something that Alvarez will have to deal with for the rest of his career?
KEY PLAYER
Yordan Alvarez: I’m going to stay on Yordan here. The slugger is, arguably, the best contact/power combo player in the Majors. In 135 games in 2022, he hit .306 with 37 homers. Astros fans do not want to lose this guy for any length of time.
FINAL THOUGHTS
I would put a good chunk of change down against the Astros winning this division by anywhere near 16 games again as they did in ‘22. That won’t happen this year. I don’t even think they will win this division by a minimum of 10 games. This race is going to be better than some people probably think.
2nd Place: Seattle Mariners
LIKES
Starting Pitching: This is one of my favorite starting pitching staffs in the American League. I love that they all are innings-eaters. Three of the projected five in the rotation threw over 180 innings last season, and if opening-day ace, Luis Castillo, can up his start total from 25 to 30, then watch out AL West. Even their #5 man, George Kirby, threw 130 innings in his ‘22 rookie campaign, which is more than any arm on the entire Detroit Tigers team could handle.
The lineup with Teoscar: The addition of Teoscar Hernandez to a team with four players that hit 20 or more homers last season, should make this lineup that much more dangerous. When Hernandez is at his best, he’ll give you a line similar to 2019: .296, 32 HR, 116 RBIs.
CONCERNS
Not enough quality lefties in the pen: There are plenty of quality right-handed pitchers in the Seattle bullpen. Paul Sewald, Andres Munoz, Diego Castillo, and Penn Murfee can get the outs for this team, but, what happens when a pivotal situation arises similar to the one during last year’s first game of the AL Division Series against the Astros’ big lefty? I don’t think the Mariners will be calling on starting pitcher, Robbie Ray, anymore to get the big outs in relief.
Astros are still in the AL West: If the ‘Stros left this division, then the M’s would be the favorite for sure. Like it or not, Houston isn’t going anywhere, and until they are properly dethroned by Seattle, whether it be in the division or the playoffs, the dominance of that team from the state of Texas will be on their minds.
KEY PLAYER
Julio Rodriguez: April of 2022 is a month that Julio likely will never forget. He started his rookie season on the opening day lineup card for the M’s and by the end of the month, he was hitting .205 with 30 strikeouts. By season’s end, the 21-year-old had a final line of .284 BA, 28 homers, 75 RBIs, and 25 SBs. Jerred Kelenic was supposed to be the other big prospect to help Seattle last season, but it didn’t work out for him. There have been some good signs this spring, that perhaps, Kelenic will find that stroke that made him one of the top prospects in all of baseball just a few years ago. Add that to what Julio brings, and in future writeups like this one, maybe they share the ‘Key Player’ spot.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Seattle won 90 games in ‘22 and ended their 21-year playoff drought by earning a 5-seed in the American League bracket. They defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 2-0 (both games in Toronto), before getting swept by Houston in the ALDS. This should be a playoff-bound team again, and if there is anyone that can take Houston off of their AL West pedestal, it’s the M’s.
3rd Place: Los Angeles Angels
LIKES
Opening Day Lineup: On paper, when healthy, as they appear to be as of this writing, I like this lineup, especially with the additions of first baseman, Brandon Drury, and right fielder, Hunter Renfroe. The idea of those two additions hitting in the middle of the order, driving in Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, and Anthony Rendon would give me plenty of optimism as an Angels fan to start the year. But, we’re talking about the Angels, and with their history of inevitable year-to-year injuries with Trout and Rendon, I’m keeping the title as ‘Opening Day Lineup’ until further notice.
Righty/Lefty arm combos: At 32 years old, lefty, Tyler Anderson had a breakout season with the Dodgers going 15-5 in 28 starts with a 2.53 ERA. He signed with the Angels this offseason and if he can have another quality year to go along with 2-way stud, Ohtani, as well as Patrick Sandoval in the rotation, then this could be a decent overall pitching staff; bullpen included. There’s a good mix of righties and lefties to work with.
CONCERNS
Injuries to the big names: When you think of the Angels for the past couple of seasons, three names stand out as “Stars”. Trout, Ohtani, and Rendon. Shohei has been the most reliable of the three since 2020. He’s played in back-to-back full seasons as both a hitter and starting pitcher. Everyone knows who he is. His main concerns came early in his career when he had a variety of injuries from elbow strains to UCL damage, and even had knee surgery in 2019. He appears to be fine now and hopefully can keep doing two jobs for the price of one as he comes into his final year under contract with the Angels.
As for Trout and Rendon. Get on the field and stay on the field. Trout hasn’t played 140 games in a season since 2016. He’s considered one of the best ever? Maybe on a per-game basis, but I’m a counting numbers guy, and you can throw new-age stats like WAR at me all you want, but if I’m looking at traditional, non-theoretical numbers, Mike has a long way to go before he’s in the category of an all-timer. Then there’s Rendon. He hit .326, with 34 homers, 126 RBIs, and 44 doubles in his last season with Washington before landing in L.A. In the last two campaigns, he’s played 105 games combined and when he has been out there, the numbers have been putrid.
Need for Speed: Only two players in ‘22 had double-digit stolen bases for the Angels. One of them, Andrew Velazquez, has been optioned to the Minors to start the season. He’s a career .192 hitter. The other is Ohtani, who had 11.
KEY PLAYER
Shohei Ohtani: His value at the top of the order and the rotation is irreplaceable. 2022 numbers: .273, 34 HR, 95 RBIs, 30 doubles, and on the mound he had 219 strikeouts in 166 innings pitched, to go along with 15 wins and a 2.33 ERA.
FINAL THOUGHTS
The Angels are a team that has the pieces to be a contender in the AL West but haven’t been to the playoffs since 2014. I believe it goes without saying, but I’ll say it anyway…The only way that they will have a shot at the playoffs is if Trout and Rendon stay relatively healthy for six months. If one of them misses half of the season, then Renfroe and Drury will need to have career years.
4th Place: Texas Rangers
LIKES
The Seager Shift is over: Corey Seager is a lifetime .287 hitter. He hit .245 in ‘22 and the infield shift was used on him more than any other player in the Majors at a 93.4% rate. Even though the shift didn’t hurt his power numbers (career-high 33 home runs), having two men on both sides of second base should help Corey raise that average to where it normally is. In 47 at-bats this spring, he’s hitting .468. I’d say he is ready to go.
Top 4 in the Lineup: Seeing players post nearly every day is a rarity of late. The projected top four in the Rangers’ batting order all played 150+ games in ‘22, and each of them put up quality numbers. If Seager, Marcus Semien, Nathaniel Lowe, and Adolis Garcia can get some help from the bottom of the order, then this will be another dangerous offensive AL West team.
CONCERNS
Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi: deGrom has thrown 224 innings in the last three seasons combined. In 2019 alone, he had 204 innings pitched. Eovaldi has had only a few seasons in which I’m guessing management was happy with his workload. Since his rookie year in 2011, Nathan has thrown 150+ innings only three times. Both pitchers had “tightness in their sides” this spring. I don’t trust either of them to throw anywhere near the number of innings that the Rangers are going to need from them to compete over a full season.
Bullpen: Any time a team hasn’t officially announced their closer within a few days of the regular season opener, I start to worry. Unless you’re the Tampa Bay Rays, or you have two or three stud relievers that can mix and match for the ninth-inning role, it’s probably a sign that your pen is weak. As of now, it sounds like the battle is between Jose Leclerc and Jonathan Hernandez.
KEY PLAYER
Jacob deGrom: I often think of deGrom as the ‘Mike Trout of pitchers’. They both are considered two of the best players of their time, if not all-time, and yet when you look at their career numbers as far as actual time spent on the field as well as the counting stats, it’s not impressive enough to put them in the same category as some of the greatest players in the history of baseball. deGrom is 34 years old, has 82 career wins, and only 1326 innings pitched in his nine-year MLB career. We all know how great he is when not injured, but once again, as I’ve been choosing my ‘Key Player’ for each franchise, it often comes down to the best player staying healthy.
FINAL THOUGHTS
The offense will be fine and should put up plenty of runs for the Rangers. The obvious question is whether or not Texas has enough pitching to keep runs off the board (even with a healthy deGrom). Last season they scored 707 runs but allowed 743. I think they’ll be better than the 68-win 2022 team, but I don’t know if getting to 80 wins is too much of a stretch? Fourth place feels right.
5th Place: Oakland Athletics
LIKES
Esteury Ruiz: Having a 24-year-old that hit .332 with 85 stolen bases in 114 Minor League games last year, starts to make one think of a former Oakland great, Rickey Henderson. Can he run like Rickey? Sounds like it. However, does that mean he can get on base like him as well? Probably not. In the Minors, he has a career .364 OBP, and in his short MLB stint in ‘22, he was on base less than 20 percent of the time. Henderson’s career OBP was .401. It’s still fun to think about what this kid could do if he gets on base. For the 2023 Oakland A’s, this might be the only story worth getting excited about.
Nothing to lose: When a team wins a measly 60 games and comes back the following season without any eye-opening improvements on the field, all they can do is play hard and take some chances, knowing that anything done better than the opposing team on a given day, is a step in the right direction.
CONCERNS
Lineup top to bottom: Tony Kemp is the projected leadoff hitter for the A’s. He’s been a role player for most of his career and if I were to give you his best year, it would probably end up being last season with this very team. Kemp hit .235 with seven homers and 46 RBIs. That’s a number nine hitter on a lot of teams. The loss of Sean Murphy, via trade with the Atlanta Braves, takes away their second-leading home run hitter in ‘22. The only player with more than 20 homers last season was Seth Brown with 25. Adding first baseman, Jesus Aguilar, won’t help enough in the power department.
Farm System: There can’t be much hope for a franchise with no formidable MLB players and the 22nd-ranked farm in the league according to MLB.com. Usually, we see a team as bad as Oakland was last year with at least a few top prospects waiting for the call-up. Sometimes, I have to remind myself that the A’s are not far removed from being a quality franchise. They won 86 games in 2021 and won the division in 2020. They are the only team in the last six years to win the West not named the Astros. I’m giving them a pass for now. It will be interesting to see where this team is in a half-decade.
KEY PLAYER
Find a Key Player: Maybe this will be the year the A’s find a breakout star that no one saw coming, but given the state of the franchise as a whole, if they were to lose, or not lose any player on their MLB team to a season-ending injury, would it matter in their quest to stay out of the basement in this division? No.
FINAL THOUGHTS
I’m not going to lie. I had no interest in previewing this team. This is the easiest choice for all of my last-place predictions. I knew they were going to be fifth on my list before I even looked at their roster.
Thanks for reading. I’m staying in the West for my next predictions as we head to the National League.