2023 NL WEST PREDICTIONS
It's been the Dodgers' division to lose for the past decade. After this season, it might be one that they will need to reclaim in 2024.
Only one team has won this division since 2013 that isn’t named the Los Angeles Dodgers. It happened only two years ago when the San Francisco Giants shocked everybody and won 107 games, which was barely good enough to end the L.A. streak of eight consecutive NL West Titles. The team in blue won 106 in ‘21, and still defeated the Giants in the Division Series in five games.
The Giants and Dodgers are the two storied franchises of the NL West and always will be. This year, I think that story, at least for one season, will have a chapter added for the San Diego Padres. From the offensive powerhouse that they should be, to the solid rotation and bullpen, I like the Pads more than any other team, including that other franchise from southern California.
There will be a new NL West Champion in 2023. This is the year San Diego should step up and take the crown from the king.
2022 FINAL STANDINGS
PREDICTIONS
1st Place: San Diego Padres
LIKES
Lineup: Without Fernando Tatis Jr. in this lineup to start the season, it’s still top-tier in MLB. With Tatis returning after he serves the rest of his 80-game suspension for PED use, then, in theory, this lineup is as good as any from top to bottom in baseball. Shortstop, Xander Bogaearts, arrives from Boston and can always be penciled in for around a .290 or better batting average. I expect Juan Soto to be better than last season, and his sidekick, Manny Machado to be the same MVP-caliber player he was in ‘22.
Pitching: Overall, between the starting rotation and the bullpen, this is a solid group. I won’t say either area is top of the line, but neither is a weakness. With Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, and eventually, Joe Musgrove (out with a toe injury), atop this staff, there will be plenty of leads handed over to the pen. Closer, Josh Hader, who has been one of the best in baseball for quite some time now, completely lost his stuff in July (12.54 ERA), and August (19.06 ERA) last year. His ERA for the season was 5.22. He found his stuff later and looked like his normal self in September and October.
CONCERNS
Fernando and the shoulder: The Padres have already had to deal with the type of person that Tatis is. In early December 2021, Fernando was in a motorcycle accident and fractured his wrist. He decided not to tell the team until March 2022. Tie it together with the PED suspension later that year and all San Diego fans can do is hope that those shenanigans are over and he will be all about becoming a star on the field again. Don’t forget that, also, in ‘21, he had surgery on a torn labrum in his left shoulder. Add that to the other question marks around his character, and I don’t know what to expect from him in 2023.
KEY PLAYER
Juan Soto: His .242 batting average last season was the lowest of his career by far. He’s a .287 lifetime hitter and an on-base machine (.424 OBP since day one). The Padres traded for him late last year. They made it to the NLCS by defeating both the Mets and Dodgers. Juan didn’t do much to help in the playoffs, hitting .211 in 12 games. I’m not worried about Soto getting back to his career norms unless this current oblique issue he has heading into Opening Day is a cause for concern.
FINAL THOUGHTS
The Dodgers are likely far from a 111-win team again. The Padres have no excuse not to be better than an 89-win team. This race feels like it will go down to the final couple of weeks. I’m banking on everything to click by mid-summer for San Diego. After defeating L.A. in the Division Series last October, this team has to be over any mental barrier it might have had during the past few years while trying to win the NL West.
2nd Place: Los Angeles Dodgers
LIKES
The ‘Should Be’ scary lineup: Give me Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith and I have three of the best players in the league at their positions covered. Throw in a better Max Muncy and J.D. Martinez and this top and middle part of the order could be great. No matter what, it will be good, but to beat the Pads, I think everything will need to click. The huge blow was losing Gavin Lux early in spring training to a torn ACL and sprained LCL in his right knee. Fortunately for L.A. they have a deep farm system and have always been able to find adequate replacements.
Freddie Freeman: It doesn’t matter where he bats in the order. You can put him anywhere, on any field and he will hit for around a .300 average every season. For his career, he’s a .296 hitter at home and .301 on the road. He’s also known to be a pretty good defensive first baseman.
CONCERNS
Rotation: I’ll take Julio Urias any day of the week. He’s 26 years old and has had back-to-back high-quality seasons on the mound. After Urias, the questions start to pile up. Clayton Kershaw, from a distance, had a nice-looking ‘22 season, going 12-3, with a 2.28 ERA and .942 WHIP. That sounds like vintage Kershaw if you only glance at the numbers. The issue, as with many starting pitchers around the league, is that he only pitched 126 1/3 innings. For a guy who used to throw 200 innings easily in his heyday, it’s concerning to think he is your #2 and hasn’t thrown 180 innings or more since 2015.
Tony Gonsolin has an injured ankle and won’t return until, likely, the end of April. He was 16-1 last season. Dustin May can’t be counted on for much of anything with his injury history. Rounding out the rotation is Noah Syndergaard, who has had to reinvent himself after numerous arm injuries. He was decent last year with the Phillies, but not the pitcher many hoped he would become early on with the Mets.
Bullpen: The pen is OK at best. This could be where the real issues occur over a full season. L.A. is resourceful and my guess would be that if it is a problem they will find the pieces to fix it in a hurry.
KEY PLAYER
J.D. Martinez: When an off year for a player is .274, 16 HR, 64 RBIs, it’s a probable sign of a good career. Martinez has had a nice overall go at it, batting .288 since 2011. He’s normally good for 30 homers a year, but for some reason after May of '22, he couldn’t hit for power or average with the Red Sox. I’m thinking it was a fluke run and he’ll bounce back in the Dodger lineup. Kind of lost in all of this is that he did have a career-high 43 doubles last season.
FINAL THOUGHTS
If Martinez is Martinez and Muncy has a season like he generally does, then this lineup could be deadly. What scares me the most about this Dodgers team is pitching depth. When healthy, they should be fine. If not, they will be in trouble. The bats will only be able to do so much.
3rd Place: Arizona Diamondbacks
LIKES
Lineup Potential: If 22-year-old outfielder, Corbin Carroll, turns out to be the player many are believing, then this could be one of the more exciting teams to watch in the NL West. It sounds like the organization is expecting a great all-around hitter with good speed as well. They’re going to need some help from newly acquired, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. His 2021 statistics will probably do the trick. He hit .276 with 21 HR and 86 RBIs for the Blue Jays that year. Ketel Marte will need to stay on the field, and if he can hit the way he did in 2019, then this lineup should be solid.
Farm System: The farm ranks in the Top 5 on most lists. Carroll is #1 and shortstop, Jordan Lawlar (20 years old), and outfielder, Druw Jones (19), the son of former Braves ‘Gold Glove Machine’, Andruw Jones, are both Top 15 prospects in the Majors.
CONCERNS
Closer Situation: Does the name Scott McGough ring a bell? It didn’t for me either. He once pitched for the Marlins in 2015, giving them 6.2 innings of work. He is supposedly in competition with Miguel Castro for the closing duties to start the year. Castro has seven career saves and none since 2020. I’m surprised the D-backs wouldn’t rather have one of the lefties in the pen, Joe Mantiply or Andrew Chafin, take the first shots at closing games. They at least both have some saves since 2021.
Madison Bumgarner: I can’t think of a truly good reason why this one-time great pitcher, especially in the postseason (8-3, 2.11 ERA to go along with an NLCS and World Series MVP in 2014), has fallen so far from what he used to be. Since leaving the Giants after the 2019 season, MadBum has gone 14-25 with an ERA that has to make you wonder about some things. His ERA for the last three seasons: ‘20-6.48, ‘21-4.67, ‘22-4.88. He’s only 33. I’d like to think he has something productive left in that arm, but it would be shocking if he ever has a year close to what he accomplished between 2012-2016. That’s asking a lot, but if he can find a way to put up something similar to his 2019 line, then maybe this rotation will be better than anticipated.
KEY PLAYER
Ketel Marte: The Diamondbacks need this guy on the field. He’s been injured every season for the last three years and has had only one standout campaign. In 2019, Marte was becoming the face of the franchise and hit .329, 32 HR, 92 RBIs, 36 doubles, and added nine triples. The year before, he led the league with 12 three-baggers.
FINAL THOUGHTS
This is one of my hit-or-miss teams in 2023. They won 74 games last year in a division with a 111-win team. The magic number for the sixth and final playoff spot in the NL was 87 wins in ‘22. Philadelphia had the honors and then proceeded to win the National League pennant. I don’t think Arizona is that good, but I could see them surprising a lot of teams by being in the hunt for a postseason berth come September.
4th Place: San Francisco Giants
LIKES
Logan Webb: Over the past two seasons, this ace has come across to me as a guy who is going to be a big game pitcher for this franchise for as long as he remains in a Giants uniform. He showed signs of this in the 2021 postseason. In two games started, he threw 14 innings and had a 0.61 ERA and 0.68 WHIP. I’m not sure what to expect from the rest of the rotation this season. Between Alex Cobb, Alex Wood, Ross Stripling, and Sean Manaea, it’s hard to say who the clear #2 is. They’ve all had their ups and downs. Webb, however, going by his last two years, is a fine choice to lead this rotation.
Bullpen: Camilo Doval saved 27 games last year and had a respectable 2.66 ERA in the process. The Rogers twins, Taylor and Tyler, have both been solid MLB relievers. As with the entirety of the San Francisco Giants team in 2023, there’s nothing exciting to see, but the relievers will get the job done more often than not.
CONCERNS
Lineup: There’s not a single player who hit close to .300 last year in the projected lineup. Joc Pederson led the regulars with a .274 batting average. He’s a lifetime .237 hitter. Coming over from the Mariners, the one power threat the Giants have, Mitch Haniger, is starting the season on the IL with an oblique issue. If Brandon Crawford and Michael Conforto don’t show some flashes from their primes, then this team is going to struggle to score runs.
KEY PLAYER
“All for One and One for All”: I’ve never read anything by Alexandre Dumas, but I’ll take the rest of his line and finish my point…“United we stand divided we fall.” This quote exemplifies the Giants organization. No one man has carried this team since, I would argue, the Barry Bonds era. The three World Series wins over the past decade were not won because of one person, but a strong unit with every player knowing his role and doing it well. That is what San Fran is going to rely on this season, and likely many more to come.
FINAL THOUGHTS
The Giants won 107 games in 2021. 81 was quite a dropoff in ‘22. I won’t often count this team out, because they do find ways to win games and generally exceed expectations. If they finish in second place ahead of San Diego or L.A., that would be unbelievable considering what this team looks like on paper.
5th Place: Colorado Rockies
LIKES
Lineup at Coors: Yesterday I previewed the AL West. The A’s were my obvious fifth-place finisher given the fact that their lineup is one of the worst, if not the worst, in all of MLB. However, it is possible, that even if the lowly-rated Oakland hitters played 81 games at Coors Field their stats would inflate. This is most often, not always, the case with Colorado regulars. I do not like this lineup much, but they’ll still score runs above league average because of their location. On the road, that’s a different story. Read on.
CONCERNS
Lineup away from Coors: I’ve always admired Charlie Blackmon. He’s played his entire career in Colorado and has been mostly healthy throughout. In 689 games at home, he is a lifetime .334 hitter. On the road-.264 in 715 games. This could be Blackmon’s last year in the big leagues before calling it quits. This offense isn’t like one of the Rockies teams from the late 90s/early 2000s with Larry Walker and Todd Helton, both putting up numbers not only at home but on the road as well. Those were special players. This Rockies team doesn’t have that kind of player.
Pitching at Coors: Is there anyone who wants to pitch here? Their projected #1 and 2 in the rotation are Kyle Freeland and German Marquez. Put them on a field far from the Mile High City last season and they’ll give you a 3.08 and 3.43 ERA, respectively. At home in ‘22, their ERA was 6.00 and 6.70, again, respectively.
KEY PLAYER
Kris Bryant: I mentioned special players earlier when referring to the greatness of Walker and Helton. Some thought Kris Bryant was on a similar kind of road with the Chicago Cubs. He played over 150 games in each of his first three campaigns and put up some solid numbers, which many believed were only going to get better. That never happened. He’s been good when he’s not injured, but not great. The Rockies’ best chance at being decent is if Bryant reaches that next level at age 31.
FINAL THOUGHTS
I feel bad for any ball player that has had to play the majority of his career in Colorado. That goes for the hitters just as much as the pitchers. Everyone says it’s too much of a hitter-friendly park to take numbers produced there seriously, due mostly to the thin air of where the team plays. The ball travels differently so it is understandable why people say that. You will find that to be true with just about every hitter that has called Coors Field their home. Their stats are better in Denver. What can you do about it, other than not play there for half the season?
Here’s the big problem with Colorado. If you pitch there, you know your stats likely will look worse than if you were pitching in most other parks. So your numbers will never look great. Case in point-Freeland and Marquez. You can’t win.
If you hit there, your stats are considered inflated, therefore, players like Blackmon (mentioned earlier about his home .BA), and even a great like Helton, never get a fair evaluation. You can’t win.
The sad part with Helton is that he was so dominant at home (.345 career average), that people, mainly Hall-of-Fame voters, can’t appreciate how good he was on the road (.287 career average and 271 doubles). To put that in perspective, one of the “all-time greats”, Mr. Mike Trout, has 297 career doubles in 301 more games than Helton played on the road. Anyone that has a .316 career batting average with nearly 600 doubles, darn well better be enshrined someday. I am sure Todd will get into the Hall soon. He was close this year on his fifth try. It’s just sad that voters immediately frown upon and diminish the careers of anyone, pitcher or hitter, who played at Coors Field.
Up next..NL Central predictions.