FIVE...bold predictions for the 2026 season
Bold prediction time at Baseball Fan Perspective. I don't know if any of these will happen, but I see a way for each prediction to come to fruition under the right circumstances.
The offseason’s fourth installment of FIVE begins now. Before I get to that, I hope everyone enjoyed what really was an entertaining World Baseball Classic. The last time we spoke, pool play had finished, and the Quarterfinals were getting underway.
A few thoughts on the WBC and then we’ll get right to my five bold predictions for 2026.
#1 - It was a great tournament for what it was. I remember starting this blog in 2023 with the World Baseball Classic. I didn’t have any expectations because I had never been interested enough in the event, given how few of the USA’s top players were participating at the time. That year, they had a good team, but the pitching staff left a lot to be desired.
This year, that was fixed. I still would have liked to see Tarik Skubal throw another game, whether against the D.R. or in yesterday’s finale versus eventual champs, Venezuela. But, in fairness, we knew before the tourney began that Skubal would only pitch one time.
Saying that, props to Venezuela for winning the WBC for the first time. In my pre-tourney predictions, I had this Finals matchup, but with the U.S. prevailing. I knew they were good on paper. I said they were like silent assassins in my original post. However, let’s be honest. When a team has former NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr., the 2026 WBC MVP, Maikel Garcia, the three-time batting champ, Luis Arraez, and the ultimate hero of Venezuela’s 3-2 win on Tuesday, slugger Eugenio Suarez in the top four of the lineup, you’re not going to be silent for long. They had a good squad, and I was impressed with their starting hurler, Eduardo Rodriguez, and the rest of the bullpen along the way.
#2 - There will always be managerial questions when a team loses as the favorite. USA’s manager, Mark DeRosa, will certainly be remembered for his pool play forgetfulness. I would have also somehow gotten Cal Raleigh an at-bat after his team’s struggles at the plate throughout the entire game, and really the entire tournament, until Bryce Harper’s game-tying two-run bomb in the eighth. Raleigh is too good a hitter not to get an at-bat in both the Semis and Finals. What made little sense to me was that there was nowhere DeRosa could use him as a pinch hitter.
#3 - Saying all that. It’s probably better that the USA lost to Venezuela than in a rematch with Italy. Could you imagine if they faced an Italy squad that burned through their top starting pitchers in the Semis against Venezuela, and would likely have played a bullpen game on Tuesday had they won? If the U.S. managed only two runs in that game and lost, there would legitimately be Hell to pay. I think, overall, they dodged a bullet here because Venezuela is legit, and they proved it. Italy, on the other hand, I think it was a nice story, and one we won’t see from them again anytime soon.
It’s not a perfect tournament. There’s no great time to play a world event like this. I definitely didn’t appreciate teams like the petty Chicago Cubs telling Venezuelan manager Omar Lopez that their closer Daniel Palencia could only be used in the Championship game if it was a save situation. In other words, they aren’t worried that he’ll get injured, or otherwise, they would have told Omar to shut Palencia down completely. But they only wanted him to be used with the game on the line and, specifically, with a save opportunity at hand. That’s BS. Sadly, the Cubs weren’t the only jokers out there calling managers up on the day of the game to give them the thumbs down on bullpen usage. That crap needs to stop the next time this tournament comes around. If you’re dedicated to this event, the MLB teams need to stay out of the way, especially when it comes to petty negotiations before the final game. Such nonsense.
FIVE…bold predictions for the 2026 season
When it comes to being bold with predictions, I think of it like this…
I wouldn’t put any serious money on these predictions. Bold predictions don’t necessarily mean we believe without much doubt that they’ll come true. What it means is that it’s not out of the realm of possibility.
An example of what a bold prediction isn’t: The Colorado Rockies will win the 2026 World Series.
No, no, no. That’s not bold. That’s stupid. It’s not going to happen, no matter how well they play this season. The Rockies are going nowhere, and everyone knows that. If you disagree, read the third sentence of this paragraph again.
With that in mind, the following five predictions I don’t feel overly confident in, but I could see all of them coming true under the right circumstances. One year ago on Pitcher List, I made seven bold predictions. A couple I was close on, one I nailed, and a few made me look foolish. Here they are:
No pitcher will throw 200 innings
-Pretty good prediction considering only three pitchers reached this mark. I’m not going to predict it again this year, but I won’t be surprised if fewer than three hit that number in ‘26.
MLB batting average will be under .240
-Again, close. The league average was .245, up two points from the year before, and only seven players hit .300 or higher. I think that’s the new norm.
Kyle Tucker wins the MVP
-Whoops. I explained in the article linked above why I thought it was possible, but after a season in which the new Cubs outfielder played 136 games and hit .266 with only 22 homers, that prediction was way off. Yet, go figure, after his pedestrian season, he ends up getting a ridiculous four-year, $240 million contract from the Dodgers. And that right there is one of the biggest problems I have with MLB, and especially the Blue Crew.
Brewers go from first to last
-Double Whoops. How about going from first in the NL Central to the best record in MLB? Sound about right, Justin? What an awful prediction that was. I won’t be doing that again anytime soon.
Blue Jays go from last to first
-This was the only one I picked correctly. It was close. They won the division on a tiebreaker over the Yankees. I’ll take it.
All division races will be tight
-Kind of. Other than the NL East, which saw the Phillies run away with a 13-game advantage over the Mets, every other division was within five games. I said specifically in my prediction that every division will be decided by five or fewer games. If the Mets didn’t have an epic second-half collapse, I would have nailed this.
A World Series rematch between the Diamondbacks and Rangers
-The Rangers finished third in the AL West. The D-backs finished fourth in the NL West. Neither was awful, neither was very good, and neither made the postseason in 2025. Not a great prediction.
With the same idea in mind as I had last year on Pitcher List, I’m giving you five bold predictions for the upcoming year. Let’s begin.
#1 - NEITHER TARIK SKUBAL NOR PAUL SKENES WINS A CY YOUNG AWARD
I think it’s fair to consider this a bold prediction when both are considered the top two arms in baseball at the time of this writing. Skubal has won two straight AL Cy Youngs, while Skenes, in just his second year, won his first in ‘25.
I’m taking the field here. I’m not confident in this pick. I’m not saying that if both are healthy and do what they did last year, that another piece of CY Young hardware won’t land in their trophy cases. What I’m saying is that in this day and age of arm injuries and lack of innings thrown, I won’t be surprised if someone emerges from both leagues to steal this award.
The American League is loaded with good starting pitchers. We can’t forget about Garrett Crochet’s season with Boston last year. Houston’s Hunter Brown, and the AL Wins leader, Max Fried, as well as some of the good up-and-comers like Seattle’s Bryan Woo (fifth in Cy Young voting last year).
As for the National League. I like Skenes, but I need to see him reach 200 innings this year. This is Skenes’ time to shine. He’ll need to if my next prediction is to come true. If we’re going to call him an all-timer in a decade, I’m going to need more than a couple campaigns of 200 dominant innings. Right now, let’s just start with one and see how he does.
On his side, though, is the fact that there’s no one else who throws much more than 200 innings consistently, other than San Fran’s Logan Webb recently. I’m taking the field in the National League. Pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez, last year’s World Series MVP, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the aforementioned Webb, and a few others could certainly take this award from Skenes.
#2 - THE PIRATES WIN THE NL CENTRAL
I know that in last week’s edition of FIVE, I said that the Dodgers, Cubs, Mariners, and Tigers are four of my likely division champs for 2026, while the East divisions will take some time to figure out. I also said that those four teams could change before I get to my preseason picks by Opening Day.
Well, I’m making a change. Do I trust the Pirates to beat out the Brewers, Cubs, Cardinals, and Reds? Heck no. Remember, this is a franchise that has never won the NL Central. The last division title to their name came in 1992 when they were still in the NL East. Pittsburgh hasn’t finished better than third since it won a wild-card spot in 2015. Even as I’m writing this, part of me wants to delete this prediction and come up with a new one. This franchise stinks. I’m still not going to. So, I’ll stick with this for now.
As it stands currently, this is more about the other teams in the NL Central than it is about Pittsburgh. I think the Pirates could be solid, but not great. They’ve got Skenes and a few other rotation pieces that could shine. Their bullpen is okay. I looked, and I’m not unimpressed, but I’m also not impressed. As far as the Buccos’ lineup, let’s just say, if rookie Konnor Griffin and the likes of Oneil Cruz, Brandon Lowe, Ryan O’Hearn, and company can hit for a solid average, then maybe something nice will be cooking this summer at PNC Park.
A lot has to go right. That’s true with every team in this division. Remember, the Reds will be without their ace, Hunter Greene (elbow injury), until at least July. The Cubs got good news, but not great news, on their RBI leader, Seiya Suzuki (injured during WBC with a sprained PCL in his right knee). Suzuki could miss the start of the season. The Cardinals are weird. Maybe their young bats will finally break out this year, but I see a very mediocre ball club right now. Finally, there’s the 97-win team from a year ago, those pesky Milwaukee Brewers. I’m not going to be foolish and pick them to finish last again. However, the offense is good, but doesn’t scare me, and with the loss of their ace from ‘25, Freddy Peralta, their rotation certainly doesn’t scare me.
The bottom line. If things go right, along with some things going wrong for the rest of the division, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the Pittsburgh Pirates win the NL Central. I’m going with it today. In six months, I’ll probably regret it. And if this prediction does come true, then very likely, my first prediction above won’t come true. It’s hard to see a situation where the Pirates win this division, while at the same time, Paul Skenes doesn’t win his second Cy Young Award. I’m fine with nailing only one of the two predictions.
#3 - NO POSITION PLAYER IN MLB WILL PLAY 160 GAMES
The trend for this prediction is tricky. Last year, 15 players played in at least 160 games. That sounds like a lot, given the current state of MLB and player management. I would think fairly soon, most players won’t even reach 150 games played. Between injuries, scheduled days off, maintenance, paternity leave, and more, the idea of buying a ticket and definitely seeing your favorite guy on the field is far from guaranteed.
Saying that, there’s never been a year in MLB history during a full 162-game season where at least one person hasn’t reached 160 games played. I think that time is coming soon. I think that time is coming this year. Does my prediction qualify as bold? How can it not? It’s never happened.
#4 - OHTANI’S MVP STREAK COMES TO AN END
It’s time for someone else, Shohei. You are great. You’ve won three straight MVP Awards, and I’m taking the National League field this year. Again, is taking the field over one person enough to qualify as bold? For me, when that one person is named Ohtani and is considered by most to be the best player on Earth, much like many felt about Barry Bonds (the only person in history to win an MVP four straight times), then, yes, it’s bold.
If he doesn’t go down by injury this year due to an overload of work between pitching and carrying the Dodgers offense, then I have an odd feeling that he’ll start to wear down at some point, and we’ll see a dip in numbers come the second half of the season. If that happens, then the door should swing open for the rest of the National League MVP contenders.
My pick. It’s Juan Soto time. Look, Soto is a great player. You want to talk about a bold prediction. Whoever predicted that Soto would lead the National League in stolen bases last year before the season began, I hope that person put some serious money on the line with those odds. I still can’t wrap my head around how a player who had never stolen more than 12 bags since his debut season in 2018 suddenly swipes 38 to lead the NL, while finishing fourth overall in MLB. That’s crazy. Also, he has a lifetime OBP of .417. He’s finished in the Top 5 for MVP four times and has never won. He’s due. I’m fairly comfortable taking Soto and the field over Ohtani this year.
#5 - THE DODGERS WILL NOT 3-PEAT
I’m taking the field, and I think this is the only time in baseball history, at least in my lifetime (since 1982), where you would be a moron not to take one team over the field if every franchise was at even odds. In other words, it would be foolish not to take the ‘26 Dodgers with equal odds across the league.
Yes, the Dodgers are the obvious betting favorites heading into 2026, and rightfully so. On paper, they are better than last year, and if that pitching staff stays healthy (always an if with guys like Tyler Glasnow and the already shelved Blake Snell), then they should win close to 100 games.
Remember, last year they “only” won 93 contests and won the NL West by three games over San Diego. They’ve added Tucker via free agency. They signed one of the best ninth-inning arms in the game, Edwin Diaz. Mookie Betts, as far as we know, is at full health. A lot seems right in Dodger land.
So, why am I making this prediction? And why do I consider it bold? Let’s start with the latter. I think the Dodgers are so good on paper that if they are at full health come playoff time, it’s going to be extremely difficult to knock this team out in a five or seven-game series. They are, hands down, the best team in baseball as it stands today. It’s not often in this league that we can say a team is that much more potentially dominant than the next best squad.
To the former question. I’m making this prediction because the key aspect I don’t trust about the Dodgers is their health. I don’t trust Glasnow, Snell, Ohtani, Roki Sasaki, Emmett Sheehan, and all the rest. Every one of them has an injury history. Fortunately for them, they found a way to fight through it last year, but I’m not buying it this time around.
Another reason I’m not picking the Dodgers to three-peat. They are getting older. Freddie Freeman, Betts, Teoscar Hernandez, Max Muncy, and a few others are aging. This is an older team, and I won’t be shocked if some of those aforementioned names go down with an ailment or two at some point, maybe even in October.
I’ll take the field to figure out a way to take down the Dodgers come playoff time. It only takes one hot team to do it. We nearly saw it a year ago in Toronto. Why not in 2026?
Thanks for stopping by. Enjoy the rest of the week and the start of March Madness on Thursday. I’ll be back early next week with my preseason division predictions and postseason picks. See you soon.
Kyle Tucker was, indeed, not all that great last year for my Cubbies. PCA smoked him.
But really: predictions are impossible, unless you just go with conventional wisdom. Teams get hot, teams get cold, and no one knows why.
I'm with you on the Pirates, though I've got them as a wild card team (I think the Brewers' magic continues and somehow they win the division yet again).