2024 MLB PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
It didn't go well in 2023 for Baseball Fan Perspective postseason predictions, but with some added narrative, maybe results will change for the better this year.
Now to Round 3. The preseason playoff predictions, also known by many as the Alston Guessathon. I’ve already made my division picks for spots 1-5 in both the American League and National League. Check them out if you haven’t already. Based on those, here is what we know so far:
Division Winners
AL East: Blue Jays
AL Central: Guardians
AL West: Astros
NL East: Braves
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Dodgers
That leaves six down and six wild card teams to select. For reference, here are last year’s BFP playoff predictions. As you will see, I incorrectly picked four of the six division winners, and only five of my predicted 12 teams qualified for the postseason. 2023 was an awful year for me.
In the end, between my ALCS (Astros over Jays) and NLCS (Braves over Cardinals), only the ‘Stros made the League Championship Series. My World Series prediction of Atlanta over Houston in a rematch of the ‘21 World Series was a bit off the mark.
Let’s try this again. For fun, I’m going to predict the seeding for each team and guess the matchups for each round as well. If I miss those, that’s fine. The most important part for the sake of pride is to successfully have more than five of my playoff teams actually make it to October this season. Here we go.
AMERICAN LEAGUE WILD CARD TEAMS
Wild Card #1 (4th seed overall): Rangers
Wild Card #2 (5th seed): Orioles
Wild Card #3 (6th seed): Mariners
In the hunt but falling short: Yankees and Twins
NATIONAL LEAGUE WILD CARD TEAMS
Wild Card #1 (4th seed overall): Diamondbacks
Wild Card #2 (5th seed): Phillies
Wild Card #3 (6th seed): Giants
In the hunt but falling short: Cardinals, Brewers, Padres
PLAYOFF MATCHUPS AND SEEDINGS
AMERICAN LEAGUE
#1 Houston Astros (AL West winner) *BYE to ALDS
#2 Toronto Blue Jays (AL East winner) *BYE to ALDS
American League Wild Card Series (Best-of-3)
#6 Mariners at #3 Guardians
Prediction: Mariners win 2-0.
Seattle’s starting pitching is too much for the mediocre Guardians offense to handle. Despite fans begging Cleveland ownership to make a huge splash at the Trade Deadline for an elite power bat, they were unable to do so. The Mets nearly traded Pete Alonso to Cleveland after falling out of contention in June. However, the first baseman declines the trade and rumors float around that he’d rather join his old teammates Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom in Texas. That doesn’t happen.
#5 Orioles at #4 Rangers
Prediction: Rangers win 2-1.
It’s a rematch of the 2023 ALDS, only this time Texas has home field for every contest and the series is Best-of-3. The Rangers match up well with the O’s once again as their bats take care of business in a Game 3 blowout victory against Baltimore’s SP Kyle Bradish.
American League Divison Series (Best-of-5)
#1 Astros versus #4 Rangers
Prediction: Astros win 3-2.
The American League matchup everyone is anticipating after the Astros and Rangers battle all season for the AL West crown. In the end, the teams tie for the best record in the division for a second consecutive season. Thanks to commissioner Rob Manfred destroying Tiebreaker Game 163, Rangers manager Bruce Bochy calls him out before the postseason begins, demanding that divisions are once again settled on the field as they should be. Manfred’s response to Bochy, “Maybe after I retire in 2029.”
Back to the series. After last year’s wild seven-game ALCS between these squads that saw the road team win every game, Houston responds with an exciting victory at home in Game 5 thanks to Rangers starting hurler Max Scherzer giving up five runs in two innings and then being removed with back spasms. The Texas bats are unable to respond against the daunting Astros bullpen late in the contest. Houston gets its revenge on the Rangers.
#2 Blue Jays versus #6 Mariners
Prediction: Blue Jays win 3-1.
The Mariners sneak into the playoffs on the last weekend of the season, narrowly holding off the Twins and Yankees for the final wild-card spot. After an impressive road series win in Cleveland, they travel to Toronto and take on starting pitchers Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios in the first two games. The Jays keep the Mariners bats in check and with a 2-0 series lead head to T-Mobile Park where the home crowd wills Seattle to an easy Game 3 win.
In Game 4, one-time Toronto ace Alek Manoah demands the ball despite posting an ERA over five in the regular season. Manoah stuns the Mariners with six shutout frames before Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. bust the game open with big knocks late in the contest and finally end their playoff hitting woes. Canada’s team heads to their first ALCS since 2016.
American League Championship Series (Best-of-7)
#1 Astros versus #2 Blue Jays
Prediction: Astros win 4-2.
Houston takes care of business in the first two contests at home but struggles offensively in Games 3 and 4. Yordan Alvarez is 1-for-14 in the series up to this point and asks manager Joe Espada to move him out of the two-hole and back to hitting where he’s comfortable behind Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman. Espada obliges his star slugger and Alvarez responds with two homers in Game 5 and a 4-for-4 day at the dish in a Game 6 win to lead Houston to its third World Series appearance in four years.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
#1 Atlanta Braves (NL East winner) *BYE to NLDS
#2 Los Angeles Dodgers (NL West winner) *BYE to NLDS
National League Wild Card Series (Best-of-3)
#6 Giants at #3 Cubs
Prediction: Giants win 2-1.
San Fran battles all season long for a wild card berth before pulling away in late September with a 7-2 record in their last nine contests. The Cubbies faithful are rocking in Game 1 at Wrigley Field and Justin Steele shuts down the Giants offense. However, in Games 2 and 3, San Francisco sends their two aces Blake Snell and Logan Webb to the bump. They both claim wins after allowing three runs over 13 innings combined. Kyle Hendricks and Shoto Imanaga battle hard in their starts for Chicago, but take the L’s.
Cody Bellinger announces in the postgame press conference that he will not be opting out of his three-year, $80 million deal and will return to the Cubs in 2025 after going 0-for-12 in the series.
#5 Phillies at #4 Diamondbacks
Prediction: Diamondbacks win 2-0.
For some reason, the Phillies never get over the prior season’s shocking loss to Arizona in the NLCS. Bad memories of leading the series 3-2 before dropping the final two contests at Citizens Banks Park in Philadelphia still haunt Bryce Harper and company to this day. Arizona reminds the Phils who went to the World Series in 2023 and Zac Gallen outduels Zack Wheeler in Game 1 while the late March signing of Jordan Montgomery pays off in a Game 2 blowout win. Montgomery tosses five shutout frames and is removed with his team ahead 4-0 after Phillies ace Aaron Nola deals with control issues.
The key to the series on the offensive side comes down to the battle of the leadoff hitters. Arizona’s Corbin Carroll sets the tone for the series going 6-for-8 with one walk and no strikeouts while Kyle Schwarber fresh off his second straight campaign with a batting average below .200, goes 1-for-6 with two walks and five strikeouts. D-backs move on.
National League Divison Series (Best-of-5)
#1 Braves versus #4 Diamondbacks
Prediction: Braves win 3-0.
Though Chris Sale is unavailable for the series after undergoing Tommy John surgery on his UCL in July, Atlanta’s rotation is still set up how they want it with Spencer Strider, Max Fried, and ‘Old Man Morton’, aka Charlie Morton lined up for the first three contests.
Confidence shines on the faces of all the Braves players as they realize they won’t be facing the Phillies for a third consecutive time in the NLDS. With an unfamiliar playoff opponent arriving at Truist Park, Atlanta dominates the first two games at home by outscoring the D-backs 14-2 in both contests combined.
In Game 3, Arizona sends their ace Gallen to the bump in hopes of making this a series, but Morton ruins Zac’s respectable outing with his best performance in quite some time. Six shutout innings, six hits allowed and six strikeouts. Not bad for a 40-year-old. After the game, GM Alex Anthoupolous offers Morton another $20 million to pitch for the Braves in 2025. Morton accepts the deal. Braves advance to the NLCS.
#2 Dodgers versus #6 Giants
Prediction: Dodgers win 3-2.
It’s not an easy series for the Blue Crew despite owning San Fran during the regular season with a 9-4 head-to-head record. The teams trade blows over the first four contests including in a thrilling 10-9 walk-off win for the Giants in Game 4 on a two-out bases loaded Jung Hoo Lee ant-killer groundball that Dodgers reliever Joe Kelly is unable to field in front of the mound. Thairo Estrada comes around to score the winning run for the home team.
Back in Los Angeles, the pressure is mounting as the Dodgers realize it’s a must-win contest. Rookie Yasamoto Yoshninobu gets the call after a brilliant start in Game 1. The Giants counter with Snell’s experience and hand the ball to the two-time Cy Young winner. After a valiant pitcher’s duel that saw both starters go six innings of one-run ball, the bullpens take over.
Unfortunately, Giants manager Bob Melvin makes a critical error by calling on the wrong Rogers brother out of the pen to face Freddie Freeman with a man on in the ninth inning and the game still tied at one. When Melvin realizes right-hander Tyler Rogers is out there to face the lefty, he pleads with the umps that a mistake was made. He meant to call on the brother, southpaw Taylor Rogers.
With rules being what they are, and the three-batter minimum regulation in effect, Tyler has no choice but to stay in the game. Freeman lines a double to right on the first pitch scoring Mookie Betts for the series-ending run. The Dodgers move onto the NLCS in thrilling fashion.
National League Championship Series (Best-of-7)
#1 Braves versus #2 Dodgers
Prediction: Braves win 4-2.
The pressure is immense for the two heavy preseason National League favorites. Los Angeles stuns Atlanta with a Game 1 blowout at the hands of Strider, but the Braves respond with back-to-back six-run victories to take a 2-1 series lead. In Game 4, Morton, fresh off signing a new $20 million deal to play for Atlanta in 2025, slips on the mound in pregame warmups and tears his Achilles. The postseason ends early once again for ‘Old Man Mort’. Yamamoto holds the Bravos to three runs over six frames for the win and a quality start. Series even 2-2.
Max Fried tosses a Game 5 gem versus Walker Buehler who never finds his stuff in ‘24 after elbow surgery kept him out of commission for all of 2023. Buehler surrenders six runs in three innings and the Braves return to Truist Park ahead in the series 3-2.
In Game 6, Bryce Elder gets a surprise call to start for Atlanta. The Braves said they wanted to save Strider for a potential must-win Game 7 or the first game of the World Series. The Dodgers send SP Tyler Glasnow to the bump following a rocky Game 2 start and he lasts only three frames due to arm fatigue after tossing a career-high 125 innings during the regular season. With Atlanta ahead 4-1 in the fourth, the Dodgers mount a comeback behind a Shohei Ohtani game-tying three-run dinger to right off Elder.
The game remains tied at four into the bottom of the ninth. Manager Dave Roberts can’t decide whether or not to call on future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw out of the pen to keep the contest even. Kershaw has seen very little action in the postseason up to this point and when he returned from the IL in mid-September his mechanics led to a 7.50 ERA over nine innings pitched.
Meanwhile, Ohtani notices the stress on his skipper’s face and volunteers to come out of the bullpen and pitch for the first time in 2024. Roberts waves him off despite Shohei’s latest interpreter telling the manager that his new best friend says, “Remember what I did to Mike Trout in last year’s WBC championship game? You can trust me. I bet on myself in this situation.” After Roberts contemplates the decision for a moment, he goes with his legendary southpaw Mr. Kershaw.
Following a Michael Harris leadoff double to start the frame, panic begins to set in for Kershaw. He’s been here before and with a lifetime record of 13-13 in the postseason, his confidence isn’t high. Next up, catcher Sean Murphy. On a 3-1 slider over the middle of the plate, Murphy drills a walk-off two-run homer to left. Atlanta wins 6-4 and heads back to the Fall Classic for a 2021 rematch with the Astros.
In a tear-jerker moment following the loss, Kershaw announces his retirement after a brilliant 17-year career. The conversation quickly turns to rumors of Ohtani asking Roberts to pitch in the ninth inning. Both Shohei, Roberts and the interpreter deny it ever happened. The press conference ends with Ohtani’s interpreter saying, “Bet on Shohei to pitch on Opening Day in 2025.”
World Series (Best-of-7)
Braves (NL Champ) versus Astros (AL Champ)
Prediction: Braves win 4-2.
Atlanta earns home-field advantage in this ‘21 World Series rematch thanks to winning three more games than the Astros during the regular season. 104 to 101 to be exact. The first two contests are split after Houston shows the world once again how good of a team they are on the road with a dominant 10-3 Game 2 victory.
In a battle of 30-year-old southpaws, Fried gets the nod for Atlanta in Game 3 against Houston’s Framber Valdez. Both have big game experience, but Valdez’s postseason struggles from ‘23 carry over to 2024 and once again he inexplicably gets crushed in the playoffs. Atlanta wins 9-4.
Game 4 is all about the great Justin Verlander, who officially announces before the contest that this would be his last season in the big leagues. Verlander holds the Braves to two runs over six frames in what is likely his last start in the majors. Series tied at two.
Hunter Brown gets the nod in Game 5 for the ‘Stros, but gives up five runs in five innings for the loss. Spencer Strider earns his second win of the series after yielding two runs with 11 strikeouts over 6.2 innings. The Braves head back to Atlanta for Game 6 up 3-2 in the series.
Many anticipate a tight game and for Houston to show some of that road warrior mentality they’ve been known to have over their eight-year prominence, but the Bravos score five runs in the first off Cristian Javier and use six pitchers to get through eight frames before closer Raisel Iglesias enters in the ninth with his team ahead 7-1.
Astros second baseman Altuve leads off the ninth with a double and after a Bregman single drives in the second run of the contest for Houston, they still trail by five with Alvarez up to bat. Iglesias gets Alvarez to fly out to the warning track in right. Next up, Kyle Tucker hits a sac fly to center to bring home Bregman for his sixth RBI of the series.
Finally, with the bases empty, two outs, and the score 7-3 in favor of the Braves, Houston calls on pinch hitter Michael Brantley (he comes out of retirement in July if you didn’t know) to keep the season alive. After a 12-pitch duel, flurried with foul ball after foul ball, Iglesias finally gets the 16-year vet to ground out softly to Matt Olson at first base to end the season.
The Braves celebrate their World Series championship in style with a massive postgame party. Meanwhile, the Astros answer a few questions after the game about this being the end of an era in Houston and all the other usual banter that has come their way over the last few seasons. The only player to definitively say it’s over is Michael Brantley who announces his retirement for the second time in less than a year.
That concludes my story of the 2024 MLB postseason. At this point, I figure if breaking down each series with a little extra narrative doesn’t produce better results with my predictions, then next season will be nothing but picks for you, which will save everyone from my over-the-top crystal ball view of how the postseason will flow.
I’ll probably be incorrect on most of the gibberish above, but am I the only one who thinks in a must-win game for the Dodgers this season, that it’s possible Ohtani would volunteer to come out of the pen and save the day? We might find out in October. Until then, let’s enjoy the non-fiction version of the upcoming campaign and get ready for Opening Day.
Enjoy the games. I’ll be back tomorrow with an Opening Day Quickcap. Talk to you soon. Thanks for stopping by.