2023 NL EAST PREDICTIONS
Three teams from this division made it to the postseason in 2022. Will those same three make it again?
It’s been the Atlanta Braves finishing in first place for five consecutive seasons in this division and I don’t see that ending in 2023. Last year, the New York Mets had their opportunity, leading by 10 1/2 games at one point. The Braves stormed back in the second half, sweeping the Mets in the second to last series of the season, and ended up in a 101-win tie, sadly not decided by a ‘Game 163’, but that’s a topic for another day, and one which I covered in my New Rules thoughts last week. Anyway, in the end, Atlanta won the Head-to-Head battle, 10-9, and as a reward, they won their 17th NL East Title.
In the 2022 playoffs, however, the Fightin’ Phils were the franchise that few saw coming. Philadelphia was the last team to qualify for the postseason, and ended up in the World Series, even knocking off the Braves in four games during the NLDS. There are question marks with the Phillies’ health to start the year, and it really comes down to whether or not their boys can hang with the Mets and Braves for a full 162.
The Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals shouldn’t finish anywhere near the Top 3 in the standings, but it would make for an interesting story if one of them can do it.
2022 FINAL STANDINGS
PREDICTIONS
1st Place: Atlanta Braves
LIKES
Lineup 1-9: Maybe the best lineup from top to bottom in all of baseball. If not, it’s close enough to consider this offense a juggernaut. If Ronald Acuna Jr. is fully back from his torn Achilles injury two years ago, and his sidekick, Ozzie Albies, with his foot, pinky, and shoulder issues can remain at second base for the season, then I’ll take this group at the plate over any in Major League Baseball.
CONCERNS
Pitching: A healthy Braves staff is fine. They won the World Series two years ago with a rotation considered to be above league average, but not high-end. Their bullpen for the past few seasons has been very good. The issues might come with durability. Closer, Raisel Iglesias and 21-game winner, Kyle Wright, are both on the shelf to start 2023 with shoulder inflammation. The young fireballer, Spencer Strider, showed how dominant he could be last year, becoming the fastest player in MLB history to 200 strikeouts, but he wasn’t the same by October due to an oblique injury. I’m not worried about the staff right now, but if there’s going to be a weakness on this team, I predict it will come with the arms before the bats.
KEY PLAYER
Ozzie Albies: Acuna is the most talented player on the team, but Albies is the engine that keeps them going. His presence was missed in ‘22, and I think it’s incredible what the Braves have accomplished the past couple of seasons with two of their biggest names not on the field together for a majority of that time.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Atlanta has had to make a second-half comeback in each of the past two campaigns to catch the Mets. The Braves are due for a good start. If they get out in front in April and May and play as well as they have in the mid-summer heat of late, then this division will be won by seven or eight games.
2nd Place: New York Mets
LIKES
Lineup with Starling Marte: If Marte can stay on the field for the entire year, and that usually never happens, then this lineup can hold its own with Atlanta’s. With Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, and Jeff McNeil batting behind Starling for a full six months, good things will most definitely happen. However, Marte has played over 150 games just one time in his 11-year career. He’ll be 35 in October and the last time he didn’t miss 35 games in a season was in 2019 when he played in 132 contests.
CONCERNS
Bullpen without Edwin Diaz: Diaz is out for ‘23 with a ruptured patellar tendon in his right knee after his on-field celebration during the WBC Quarterfinals earlier this month. Edwin’s 2022 numbers were spectacular. In 61 innings pitched he had 118 strikeouts, a 1.31 ERA, and a 0.839 WHIP. Those are difficult, if not impossible, numbers to replace, but David Robertson, Adam Ottavino, and company should be able to hold their own for a while. The question is, come the ninth inning in a big late-season save situation, what walk-on tune from the pen will be playing now that Timmy Trumpet’s ‘Narco’ will be off the board?
KEY PLAYER
Pete Alonso: He's been healthy for all four seasons of his short career. He slugs with the best of them and if he was lost for any significant amount of time, the Metropolitans would be in trouble. Taking out the 60-game 2020 season, his year-to-year home run counts have been 53, 37, and 40. 130 homers and 345 RBIs in three full campaigns. Good luck replacing that.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Many people are confident that the Mets rotation will hold up. Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are all-time great pitchers. When they are out there, I expect that they will be good. Father time is a potential issue with this group. The ages of the projected rotation: Verlander (40), Scherzer (38), Carlos Carrasco (36), Kodai Senga (30), and David Peterson (27). They are all talented but need to stay healthy to win this division.
3rd Place: Philadelphia Phillies
LIKES
Kyle Schwarber out of the Leadoff Spot: Trea Turner has arrived and will be the everyday leadoff hitter for the Phils. He brings a .302 career batting average, and with the new pickoff rules, could steal 50 bags or more. Schwarber last season hit .218, with 46 homers and only 94 RBIs. I say “only 94” because 31 of them were solo shots. First, I don’t understand why players with horrible batting averages lead off nowadays. Second, if Kyle is going to hit around his career average of .233, but crush 40 or more homers, then I want him up with men on base. If he goes deep, wouldn’t the team rather he drive in more than just himself?
CONCERNS
Pitching after Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler: Taijuan Walker is the #3 man in this rotation. He’s thrown 150+ innings in each of the past two seasons. He’s a bit wishy-washy and you never know what you’re going to get from him each game. The projected #4 was Ranger Suarez. He is on the IL to start the year with a forearm issue. The #5 was supposed to be the 19-year-old future ace, Andrew Painter, but he has a UCL sprain in his pitching elbow and won’t be back anytime soon.
Injuries to Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins: Harper will be back mid-season after having elbow surgery on his right arm. Rhys won’t be back in ‘23 after tearing his ACL in spring training. These are two huge bats missing for the Phils in the early part of the year. If the other guys in the lineup pick it up and do what they are capable of, such as Nick Castellanos, who had an off 2022 by his standards, then maybe they can withstand Harper’s absence for a while.
KEY PLAYER
Bryce Harper: If he’s healthy when he returns from the IL, and the Phils can stay around .500 until that time, then the playoffs may very well happen for this team. After his showing in last year’s postseason, he has proven himself to be a big-game player to the baseball world. He is the main reason Philadelphia fans should have some hope for another chance at a World Series run.
FINAL THOUGHTS
I have my doubts about this team. Their run to the World Series last season as the #6 seed in the National League was great but shocking. It was a similar surprise journey as that of the Atlanta Braves in their 2021 World Series pursuit after losing Acuna. The difference is that the Braves won the NL East that season and have continued to hold their reign in the division since. Philadelphia only won 87 games last year and I don’t think, even with the addition of Trea Turner, that they are any better than the ‘22 team given the current injury situations with their offense. They’ll be in the hunt for a playoff spot, but won’t last in the race for the East.
4th Place: Miami Marlins
LIKES
Luis Arraez and Jean Segura additions: Arraez and Segura are contact hitters and neither strikes out often. Arraez won the AL Batting Title last year with a .316 average and struck out just 43 times in 144 games. Segura has only had one triple-digit SO stat line by his name over an 11-year career.
CONCERNS
Lineup: Despite the additions of Arraez and Segura, the bats have issues. There’s very little power potential on the Marlins squad, as usual, and the 25-year-old Jazz Chisholm is always a health concern. Jazz is supposed to be the top player on this team, but after already having a stress fracture in his back and a torn meniscus, I don’t know how good he will be long-term. I’m not quite sure why there is hype around him. He was a .256 hitter in the Minors, and so far has a .243 average in 205 MLB contests. Is he going to be one of those .250, maybe .270 max, kind of players with some power when healthy and at his best?
Pitching after Sandy Alcantara: Alcantara is the reigning CY Young in the National League, and for good reason. He led the Majors with 228 2/3 innings pitched, and six complete games. Sandy isn’t the issue. It’s everything else after him. The loss of Pablo Lopez via trade with the Minnesota Twins in the offseason, which brought Arraez to Miami, is tough to justify considering the current rotation. Does Arraez mean more than 69 wins for this team in ‘22? Perhaps the Marlins are banking on the younger arms of Taylor Rogers and Jesus Luzardo to take the next step toward their potential.
KEY PLAYER
Sandy Alcantara: I’ve already discussed some of his numbers from ‘22. Here are a few more: ERA-2.28, WHIP-0.980, SO-207. He’s in the prime of his career at 27 years old. He has 47 Quality Starts over the past two seasons, and could easily win a few CY Young Awards before it’s over.
FINAL THOUGHTS
It’s nice having an ace like Alcantara every fifth game, but in the end, this team is a fourth-place finisher because of their lack of depth. Even a banged-up Phillies team, should finish higher in the standings than The Fish.
5th Place: Washington Nationals
LIKES
Youth: At the very least, it will be interesting to see if a few of the new players coming up for the Nats are going to be good. This team has completely dismantled everything from the 2019 World Series squad. In fact, after Juan Soto’s departure last season, there are no players left from that year’s everyday lineup. 30-year-old Joey Meneses was a rookie in ‘22 and finally got his chance in The Show. He didn’t disappoint, hitting .324 with 13 homers in 222 plate appearances. What’s crazy is that he is the oldest player in the Opening Day lineup in 2023. Has there ever been a second-year player with those honors in the history of the game?
CONCERNS
Lost Talent in exchange Youth: The Nats have said goodbye to a lot of great players since 2018. I don’t take the word “Great” for granted. It’s an overused term in sports. Great is now often substituted for something that is actually good. So when I say they’ve lost “Great” players, I mean it. Max Scherzer and Bryce Harper are both likely going to the Hall-of-Fame someday. Trea Turner, still only in his 20s, is on a trajectory that will at least keep him on the ballot each year I would guess. It’s still early for Juan Soto, but I feel comfortable in saying that when it’s all said and done he will be a Hall-of-Famer. Finally, Anthony Rendon, if you go by his 2019 numbers with the Nats, he had a great season. The hope that all of these young “up-and-coming” players can replace those names, is difficult to see right now.
Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg: Corbin was the third starter behind Scherzer and Strasburg during their 2019 Championship season. One of them doesn't play anymore, Strasburg; only eight starts in three years. Another one, Corbin, was having a nice career up until 2020. In 2019 he was 14-7 with a 3.25 ERA. He also struck out 238 batters in 202 innings of work. Since that season, he is 17-42 with an ERA in 2023 that I needed to count with two hands (6.31). The two arms are making a combined 58 million dollars this season and for what in return?
KEY PLAYER
Keibert Ruiz and Riley Adams: I’m going with two players, both catchers, who will have to call the game when Corbin is on the bump. They are likely going back and forth from home plate to the mound at a frequent rate. Hopefully, by June this process won’t wear them down and cause an injury. Maybe the two young backstops can figure out a way for Patrick to adjust to something close to what he once was.
FINAL THOUGHTS
It would be a huge win for the Nats if they finished in fourth place. They only won 55 games last season. I don’t think they will stay close to the Marlins in the standings, but sometimes teams with young talent and no pressure on them can surprise.
That’s it for the Division-by-Division Predictions. Now that my roster studies are over, and division winners made, it’s time to head to the Playoffs for my final 2023 predictions. Stay tuned.