2023 NL CENTRAL PREDICTIONS
A division that has seen three teams win it two times apiece in the last six seasons proves how difficult predicting the NL Central is from year to year.
The Cardinals, Brewers, and Cubs have battled hard for division supremacy since 2017, each winning the NL Central twice. St. Louis is the defending champ, winning it by seven games last year over the Brewers. Milwaukee won 86 contests and missed the playoffs by one game in the standings.
The real question I have this year is about the overall quality of the five teams getting set to take off on opening day. Will more than one of these franchises make the postseason in 2023 or not?
Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are the two squads that I see battling it out once again for fourth place. Last season they both had 100 losses. Perhaps a few more wins come for each in ‘23, but it won’t be near enough to compete for anything more than a third-place finish with the Cubs.
It’s the Brewers versus the Cards once again for the top spot. In the end, I like the Redbirds to repeat.
2022 FINAL STANDINGS
PREDICTIONS
1st Place: St. Louis Cardinals
LIKES
The Pitching Staff and Adam Wainwright: Adam Wainwright has won 195 games with the Cardinals, and has a career 3.38 ERA with four top-five finishes for the CY Young Award. He’s been a Cardinal since his first big league game in 2005 and is beloved in St. Louis. Between last season’s farewell tours for two other Missouri legends, Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina, and now Wainwright in 2023, St. Louis fans have had a lot to look forward to recently. The rest of the rotation could be good if Jack Flaherty can pitch as he did in 2019. It sounds like he’s healthy and ready to go. The eighth and ninth-inning arms out of the bullpen, Giovanny Gallegos and Ryan Helsley, should be one of the better late-game duos in the league.
Bats: Jordan Walker, a 20-year-old rookie, who made the team out of camp has never played Triple-A ball. If St. Louis is that confident in someone his age to start him in left field on opening day without playing at the highest level of the Minors, then I can’t argue with that. The Cardinals also added Willson Contreras to replace Molina behind the plate. The former Chicago Cubs backstop brings a solid bat with some power; usually good for 20 homers or more. Then there is everyone from reigning NL MVP, Paul Goldschmidt, to 10-time gold glove winner Nolan Arenado. This is one of the most well-round lineups in the Majors and scoring runs won’t be a problem.
CONCERNS
Pitching, maybe?: Considering the current mediocre level of talent in this division compared to some of the others around the league, the Cardinals match up well in most areas with every team in this division. The rotation and bullpen depth may become an issue, which is why I bring up the next topic….
KEY PLAYER
Jack Flaherty: The Cards need to get Jack Flaherty back to the promising pitcher he was becoming before injuries took over for the last few seasons. If he is back and fully healthy for the entire campaign, then his arm will be huge come playoff time.Â
FINAL THOUGHTS
I don’t think it will happen, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this team wins this division by double digits. My thought is something along the lines of last season; seven or eight games over the Brewers.
2nd Place: Milwaukee Brewers
LIKES
Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta Trio: If Freddy Peralta can actually stay on the field and help the two aces, Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, carry the staff, then this team can make the playoffs. It could be much worse (and is for many other teams in MLB) than to have Eric Lauer and Wade Miley rounding out the rotation in the fourth and fifth slots.
Closer, Devin Williams: Josh Hader was the main man in the Brewers pen from 2018 to 2021. He dominated for most of his time as the team’s closer, except for some hiccups in the summer of ‘22. He was later traded to the Padres at the deadline and then the ball was officially handed over to Devin Williams in the ninth inning. Williams has thrown just over 155 innings in his career and has 250 strikeouts. His 2.03 ERA isn’t bad either.
CONCERNS
Christian Yelich: Where has the '18/'19 Christian Yelich run off to? Over the last three seasons, he has 35 homers combined. In 2019, he had 44 blasts and was one of the young stars of the game. Get him back to where he was and this team might win the division. If not, then mediocrity will only get you so far.
KEY PLAYER
Corbin Burnes: One question for Brewers fans. Does Corbin Burnes stay in Milwaukee for the entire season after his arbitration mess in February? He was seeking a 10.75 million dollar deal for ‘23 but instead got a 10.01 mil payment. He was not happy with that, and rumors have been swirling that he might be traded at some point. I think that would only happen if the Brew Crew falls out of playoff contention. He has been one of the top starting pitchers in baseball for the past two years. He won the CY Young Award in '21. He needs to not only stay in town but be mentally in the right place as well if this team wants any chance at beating St. Louis.
FINAL THOUGHTS
This is going to be a competitive team, but I’m not quite sure if I am comfortable putting them in my top six in the NL, which would guarantee them a playoff spot. It’s close. Check out my playoff predictions before the first game on opening day to find out.
3rd Place: Chicago Cubs
LIKES
Lineup age: The majority of this team is in their mid to late 20s. I don't know if the addition of shortstop, Dansby Swanson, from the Atlanta Braves will help them win many more games than the 74 they had last year, but he does add some pop (back-to-back 25+ homer seasons) and has some always-important big-game experience.
CONCERNS
Cody Bellinger: In 2019, Cody was the NL MVP. He hit .305, with 47 homers, and drove in 115 runs. He had a good year, but when you break down that season, it was really just about an all-time great run for the first two months that won the award. He hit .416 with 10 homers and 29 RBIs in April. He also had a nice May (.319, 6 HR, 15 RBIs). The rest of the year was solid, but not great. Since 2019 ended, he hasn’t been great or solid. But rather about as lost at the plate as a player of his caliber can be. From 2020-22 he has an average of .239, .165, and .210, respectively. I’d like to say that he and Yelich (the NL MVP runner-up in ‘19) have gone down this same bizarre road into nothingness, but in truth, Yelich has at least shown some signs of bouncing back here and there. As for Bellinger, I could argue that he hasn’t had a good month in the Majors for the past three seasons. A star? I don’t think so. Maybe changing teams will help.
KEY PLAYER
Kyle Hendricks: A capsular tear in the throwing shoulder will keep Hendricks out until May. He's been the most consistent pitcher for the Cubs over his nine-year career. Chicago needs him back, healthy, and as good as he was in 2016 when he led the NL with a 2.13 ERA.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Perhaps next season this team moves up the division ladder, but right now I think they are stuck in the middle until further notice. The offense will be OK. I’m probably being too nice in saying the following, but I think that the overall pitching will be OK. Therefore, the Cubs will be OK. Good enough for third place.
4th Place: Pittsburgh Pirates
LIKES
A Solid Mix of Vets and Young Players in the Lineup: Andrew McCutchen returns to the place where it all started. He was one of the best players in baseball for a short period between 2011 and 2015. He won an MVP in 2013 after leading the Pirates to their first playoff berth in 20 years. Andrew returns to a franchise that looks to be on its way to another double-digit long playoff drought; already seven years and counting. Make no mistake that he and longtime veteran, Carlos Santana were brought here for one reason-Leadership. Show the young kids how to play the game the right way by example. I don’t expect peak Cutch and peak Santana to suddenly show up and carry this team to the next level, but their presence should be valuable to the building process in Pittsburgh.
CONCERNS
Bryan Reynolds: He didn’t get his way in his offseason negotiations with the Pirates’ front office. Reynolds wanted to be extended, but in the end, was not happy with the offer and then made it known to the Bucs that a trade would be best. Now he claims he doesn’t want to be traded. Who knows? I believe anytime a player is unhappy with a team and wants a trade, then that usually means he will be gone before too long if the price is right for that particular franchise that owns the disgruntled player. This isn’t NBA veteran, Kyrie Irving, trade demand bad, but it might end up that way, especially if the team stinks and Bryan starts talking negatively in public. That’s what Kyrie does, and not many respect him for that.
Pitching: Mitch Keller and Roansy Contreras each won five games last season. They led the starting rotation in that category. The most wins on the team was six, by two relievers, Will Crowe and Chase Dejong. Keller and Contreras are being asked to lead the pitching staff in 2023. Need I say more?
KEY PLAYER
Oneil Cruz: I don't think there has ever been a more talked about regular season single in recent memory than last year's 122.4 miles per hour hit off the wall by Oneil Cruz in August against Atlanta. They make it out to be like it led to something other than a tie for last place in the NL Central. It’s still talked about in the baseball world today. He may end up being a star at some point, but as a rookie last season he struck out 126 times in 87 games and hit .233. He certainly has the power and can crush the ball. What else does he have?
FINAL THOUGHTS
The Pirates won’t go anywhere relevant if their current pitching situation remains what it is. That needs work before anything else. Fix the arms issues, get a couple of aces, and a big bat or two, perhaps some good relievers, and then, yes, this team will have something worth talking about next year.
5th Place: Cincinnati Reds
LIKES
Two Young Power Arms At The Top: By the win/loss record, there was nothing impressive about rookies Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo in 2022. Greene was 5-13. Lodolo was 4-7. Their ERA and WHIP were nothing special. Greene: 4.44, 1.21. Lodolo: 3.66, 1.25. What is impressive? The strikeouts. Greene: 164 K in 125 1/3 IP. Lodolo: 131 K in 103 1/3 IP. I’m not sure how good they are going to be yet, but these two pitchers will at least give Cincy fans something to get excited about in ‘22. Maybe this duo becomes one of the better one-two punches in the game before too long.
CONCERNS
Bullpen other than Alexis Diaz. Another Reds rookie who stood out last year was Alexis Diaz. He had a 1.84 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 83 K in 62 1/3 IP. He also had 10 saves and has been named the Cincinnati closer to begin the season.
KEY PLAYER
Jonathan India: This is a flip-of-the-coin pick. I’m not sure if there is one true ‘Key Player’ on this team for 2023. I’ll throw India into the spot since he won the Rookie of the Year Award in ‘21 but fell off a bit in ‘22. In his first year, he hit .269, with 21 HR, 98 runs, and 34 two-baggers. In 2022: .249, 10 HR in 103 games.Â
FINAL THOUGHTS
Even though I think the Pirates will be slightly better than Cincinnati in 2023, the Reds’ future may be brighter. Both teams have Top 10 farm systems, but for me, having potentially two young aces currently in the making is the tiebreaker.
One division left to cover. The NL East comes next along with my Playoff Predictions before the first game of the new season on Thursday. Thanks for reading.