It’s one of my favorite times of the year. Maybe, my favorite. Between March Madness, MLB, and the hope that spring weather is just around the corner, for a New Yorker like myself, there’s a sense of great things to come. That is, of course, until I see my Madness bracket bust after Week 1 (I lost two Final Four teams already), my preseason MLB division winners get off to slow starts in April, and, more than anything, the weather go from 60 degrees one day to below 40 the next all the way through mid-May.

Today, I’m focused on baseball. It’s preseason prediction time. My goal is to correctly pick all 12 playoff teams for 2026, the pennant winners, and the World Series champion. Honestly, I don’t care how the 12 get into the postseason, as long as they do. Saying that, I’ll take any bonus points for correctly choosing the right order in the standings after last year’s sad showing.

Here’s a quick review of my 2025 picks. You can also check out last year’s article with this link if you’d like.

Here were last year’s predictions. *Anything crossed out means incorrect.

AL East

1. Blue Jays

2. Orioles

3. Red Sox

4. Yankees

5. Rays

AL Central

1. Royals

2. Guardians

3. Tigers

4. Twins

5. White Sox

AL West

1. Astros

2. Rangers

3. Mariners

4. Athletics

5. Angels

NL East

1. Braves

2. Phillies

3. Mets

4. Nationals

5. Marlins

NL Central

1. Cubs

2. Reds

3. Cardinals

4. Pirates

5. Brewers

NL West

1. Dodgers

2. Diamondbacks

3. Padres

4. Giants

5. Rockies

Only one word comes to mind upon reviewing last year’s results. YIKES! What’s worse is that the only teams I correctly predicted by order of finish in the National League were the two most obvious of all. Most people knew that the Dodgers were the cream of the crop, while the Rockies were the laughing stock of the National League. Those were gimmes. In the end, I went 8-for-30. Not a terrible batting average, but certainly a horrible pick average in whatever way you want to twist it.

Now for the playoffs. I only correctly predicted six of 12 postseason teams.

American League

Blue Jays, Royals, Astros, Orioles, Guardians, Rangers

National League

Braves, Cubs, Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, D-backs

World Series

Dodgers over Royals.

Sure, I picked the World Series champ, but my AL pennant winner didn’t even make the postseason. It was a poor all-around year for predictions. Let’s try this again.

My goal for 2026 is to correctly pick at least 12 out of 30 teams in the proper order they will finish in their respective division. Anything under 10 is pathetic. What I have to remember is that if I miss one, then I’m guaranteed to miss at least another for every division where a mistake is made. It’s not easy. Where I truly want to improve is with my playoff teams. I can do better than 50 percent.

Let’s begin. Below you’ll see all 30 clubs, their projected finish in the standings, and some thoughts on each. Following those, I’ll predict the pennant winners and World Series champion.

AL EAST

1st: Red Sox

I’m finally going away from the Blue Jays, the team I have picked to win the AL East three straight years. I need a break from Toronto. Instead, I’m heading to Boston. This is a team that has added to its starting pitching depth with steady arms like Ranger Suarez and Sonny Gray. They have a proven back end of the bullpen with Garrett Whitlock and Aroldis Chapman.

As for the offense, I think it’s going to be good. The addition of catcher turned first baseman, Willson Contreras, and a full year of their potential star, Roman Anthony, should improve a franchise that won 89 games last year. A wild card was nice. A division title is better.

2nd: Yankees

There are a couple of things keeping me from picking the Yankees to win the AL East. First, the question marks around the rotation with Gerrit Cole not due back until May or June (TJ surgery), and the injury-prone Carlos Rodon out for at least the first month of ‘26 (elbow surgery). We’ll see what the staff can do after last year’s 19-game winner, Max Fried. If Cole and Rodon come back at full strength, then there’s no reason New York can’t win this division.

Second is the lineup. They had one of the best offenses in ‘25, led by MVP Aaron Judge. I have my doubts on repeat performances from Trent Grisham (34 homers) and Jazz Chisholm Jr. (31 dingers), but even if they regress, this team should make the postseason.

3rd: Blue Jays

Are they really better than last year’s new World Series championship squad? I’m hearing a lot of noise around Toronto this year. However, I’m looking at the beat-up rotation with Shane Bieber (forearm fatigue), Jose Berrios (stress fracture in right elbow), and Trey Yesavage (right shoulder impingement).

If this pitching staff isn’t at full health by May, then I don’t know if the offense will be able to carry them past the gauntlet that is the AL East. Bo Bichette is gone. It sounds like Toronto and their recently extended manager, John Schneider, will be changing the lineup card frequently. Maybe it works, maybe it doesn’t. They will be good, but playoff good? Find out later in my playoff predictions.

4th: Orioles

Dear Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman,

Prove to me that last year was just a blip on the radar. Bring back that production you both showed pre-2025, and your team, with the addition of sluggers Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward, will be enough to carry this franchise back to the postseason after missing out in ‘25. Thank you.

The pitching staff could be really good if Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish, and Shane Baz stay healthy. I like the addition of veteran Chris Bassitt to the back of the rotation. Adding Ryan Helsley as the closer certainly helps the bullpen.

I could be way off on this finish. Baltimore is talented enough to win the AL East, but so is every other team other than probably my last place finisher…

5th: Rays

I like the top part of the batting order with Yandy Diaz (.300, 25 HR, 83 RBI in ‘25), Jonathan Aranda (.316 batting average over 106 games played), and their 22-year-old slugger, Junior Caminero (45 homers, 110 RBI in his first full season). After those three? Nah, not so much.

The pitching staff could be solid if Shane McClanahan is actually healthy (he hasn’t pitched since 2023, thanks to a variety of injuries). However, I won’t believe that until I see it.

This team will be pesky as always, but lacks the overall talent to compete for a playoff spot.

AL CENTRAL

1st: Tigers

They better not blow a 15.5-game division lead again; otherwise, I give up. With the additions of former Houston aces, Framber Valdez and future HOF’er, Justin Verlander, to a staff with two-time defending American League Cy Young winner, Tarik Skubal, this is hands down the best rotation in the AL Central. If strikeout pitcher Jack Flaherty can get back to his 2024 ways, and Casey Mize wins another 14 games with a sub-4.00 ERA, then, ladies and gentlemen, we may have the best 1 through 5 staff in MLB.

Yes, the bats are questionable, but the offense brings back pretty much the same group that nearly knocked Seattle out of the ALDS last season. If the pitching lives up to its capabilities, then any flaws with the sticks could be manageable.

2nd: Royals

Speaking of pitching staffs. Seth Lugo and Cole Ragans need huge bounceback seasons if Kansas City hopes to compete with Detroit and the rest of the AL Central. You boys made me look really bad with last year’s predicted World Series appearance, and I refuse to make that mistake again this season. Show me that you can stay healthy and pitch consistently, and I’ll gladly pick the Kansas City Royals to make the playoffs.

If the pitching lives up to expectations, then that, added to what should be easily the best offensive team in the division, I see no reason KC will miss out on the ‘26 playoffs. It’s going to be a good race.

3rd: Guardians

Look, it’s a simple situation in Cleveland. As long as Jose Ramirez is healthy and on this team, then they won’t finish lower than third place ever. At least that’s been the case since Ramirez made his debut in 2013. The last time Cleveland finished worse than third in the AL Central was in 2012. Knowing this, choosing Cleveland to finish third is probably unwise, given their ability to outperform what the numbers suggest on paper. Again, they have Ramirez to mostly thank for that. As for the rest of the offense, I’m not sold.

Onto the pitching. For my money, Tanner Bibee is far from a staff ace, but has been considered so for the last two years. After 2025 (12-11, 4.24 ERA), I see Bibee as a solid #3 guy in most rotations. He’s inconsistent, and after their #2 option, Gavin Williams, this starting staff has a lot of question marks. Sadly, their bullpen will be without one of the best arms in the game for probably the end of time, Emmanuel Clase (pitch-rigging scheme). Flamethrower, Cade Smith, will take his spot in the closer role, but losing Clase is a game-changer for me.

A solid team, but I’m not sure if the playoffs are in their future for a third straight season.

4th: Twins

Two straight fourth-place finishes for Minnesota. Why not make it three straight? There was a period from 2017 to 2020 when this franchise was the top dog in the AL Central. Since the beginning of this decade, they’ve made the playoffs once and haven’t finished in the top two in the division since they won it in ‘23.

I say it every year, and I’ll say it again. I don’t expect Byron Buxton to stay healthy enough for a full season. I think he’s a terrific defensive outfielder with some decent bat skills. Do I think he’s a superstar, as a few pundits like to say? I do not. Sure, he can get hot once in a while and carry the team to some wins, but the facts are that Buxton is a career .248 hitter with a better than 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio. That’s terrible.

Without Buxton living up to the hype and staying healthy, and younger players like Royce Lewis following in his path of never being on the field when it matters, then there’s not much else to say about this team right now. After losing their ace, Pablo Lopez, for the season (TJ surgery), I can’t get excited about their pitching options. Fourth place sounds about right. Maybe a last placer is coming if the next team on this list improves from their recent nightmarish campaigns.

5th: White Sox

101, 121, 102. That’s how many losses the Chicago White Sox have tallied in each of the last three seasons. Until they manage a fewer than 100-loss season, I’m not picking this franchise to finish out of the AL Central’s basement. It could come this year with the addition of Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami. He certainly provides some excitement for a team that hasn’t had much to cheer about for three years. The Sox have some good young potential bats in Colson Montgomery, Chase Meidroth, and catcher Kyle Teel (currently out six to eight weeks with a hamstring strain).

Unfortunately for Sox fans, the pitching staff is not even a BIG IF for me. I don’t like it at all until Shane Smith and Sean Burke take the next step in their development. Maybe it all clicks this year and Chicago surprises us. I think a 90-loss season would be a huge improvement and a step in the right direction.

AL WEST

1st: Mariners

Most teams will win a lot of games with a rotation of Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, George Kirby, and 11-game winner Luis Castillo. Add former Cardinals infielder Brendan Donovan as your leadoff hitter ahead of ‘The Big Dumper’, Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, and Josh Naylor…We have a division winner and World Series contender.

There’s very little not to like about this well-rounded team.

2nd: Astros

Pencil this team in for a Top 2 finish until they don’t. Much like the Guardians in the AL Central, the Astros are so predictable that finishing anywhere but first or second would be a head scratcher. Houston hasn’t finished third or worse since 2016.

I don’t know if I like this team enough to get back to the playoffs after missing out in 2025, but as long as DH Yordan Alvarez can stay on the field for 140-plus games, then they are as good as anyone in this division, not named the Mariners.

Houston’s rotation without Framber Valdez will be interesting to follow. Hunter Brown proved to be a true ace last year, and if newly acquired rookie Tatsuya Imai can put up anywhere close to the numbers he did in the NPB over eight seasons, then Houston’s pitching might survive the Valdez loss. I’m also very skeptical of star closer Josh Hader’s biceps injury. Hader missed the end of last season with a shoulder issue, and if he’s not going to be available at full strength in ‘26, Houston’s pen could be in trouble.

3rd: Athletics

If nothing else, the offense should be fun to watch. The A’s are definitely headed in the right direction before their move to Las Vegas in 2028. They’ve locked up a few of their young players to long-term extensions. If they can find a way to sign last year’s AL ROY, Nick Kurtz, to an extension as well, then A’s fans won’t have to worry about the future of this offense. It’s there.

Too bad for the offense that the pitching doesn’t look even questionable. It is unquestionably not very good. Their Opening Day starter this year, Luis Severino, stunk at home in 2025 (2-9, 6.01 ERA). He’ll have to be much better at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento if the A’s have any shot at fighting for a playoff berth. After Severino, I don’t trust anyone in the rotation. This is a team that could win the division if it had a staff as strong as Seattle’s. But it doesn’t. Therefore, no playoff berth this year.

4th: Rangers

Of all the American League teams, this is the one I’m struggling the most with. Some days, I feel like Texas could compete with Seattle and Houston for the division crown, given their solid veteran bats and pitchers. Other days, this team feels like one that could snap in half and finish in dead last if they don’t stay fully healthy. With big names like Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, and Corey Seager always iffy to play a full season, I’m not putting any money down on the Rangers to finish better than third. They could be really good, but they could finish in last place if the three aforementioned names go down with injuries. Too much dependence on the health of oft-injured players doesn’t excite me.

5th: Angels

It’s really simple. The rotation, at best, is middle of the pack, and the offense, at best, is middle of the pack after leading MLB in strikeouts last year. I’m not banking on either area to finish in the middle of the pack. I think you’re looking at a pitching staff and offense that rank in the lower third in most important categories.

I do like the progression of outfielder Jo Adell, who finally broke out last season with 37 long balls and 98 ribbies. Their leadoff man, Zach Neto, looks like he’ll be a solid bat for years to come. As always, the real question with the Halos revolves around Mike Trout. I don’t mean a healthy Mike Trout because let’s face it, if he’s not healthy, he’s not performing. I’m talking about a healthy Mike Trout (apparently, he is healthy right now) and whether he can get anywhere near the numbers we saw last decade. He’s only 34, and most of you know my thoughts on his status as an all-time great. He was on his way early on until he wasn’t.

The bottom line is that if Trout’s planning on having another subpar season with less than 140 games played, then I’m very confident in picking the Angels to finish in this position.

NL EAST

1st: Phillies

I’m okay with this rotation even without a healthy Zack Wheeler to start the season. With Cristopher Sanchez leading the way, followed by lefty Jesus Luzardo, that’s a nice 1-2 punch to begin the year. If Aaron Nola gets back to his ‘24 form, then watch out, National League.

The offense has the same names we always see at the top with Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and Bryce Harper. This is an experienced lineup that shouldn’t have any issues scoring runs.

The Mets and Braves won’t be an easy takedown, but I’m going with the strongest all-around squad this year.

2nd: Mets

Mets for second? Braves for second? It’s a tough call, but if the Mets figure out their infield defense, then I think they are better than Atlanta right now. However, after last year’s second-half collapse, I’m not confident in picking New York for anything. They usually find a way to choke or underperform. Maybe this season will be the same.

I want to see how the new guys, Bichette, Jorge Polanco, and Marcus Semien, fit into a lineup that no longer has Alonso at first base. I have no faith in former White Sox centerfielder Luis Robert Jr. with a bat in his hands. There are a lot of questions that they’ll have time to answer. This offense could be very nice or middle-of-the-pack. I suppose as long as Juan Soto is there, it won’t be too bad.

I like the addition of Freddy Peralta as the staff ace. I don’t like the subtraction of arguably the best closer in the game, Edwin Diaz. My guess is that nothing really changes in New York. They’ll make the playoffs this time, but it’s going to be your typical love/hate relationship for their fans.

3rd: Braves

Two months ago, there was certainly an argument to be made that the Atlanta Braves would be the team to beat in the NL East. But after key pitching losses to Spencer Schwellenbach (elbow surgery), Hursten Waldrep (torn ACL), and now the most recent to the one guy this rotation could ill afford to lose, Spencer Strider (beginning season on IL with an oblique strain), I have my doubts.

Chris Sale is the staff ace, and he was great last year when healthy. Unfortunately, he’s rarely healthy for a full season, and if he goes down in the first half, then the Atlanta offense as a whole had better be ready for a rebound season. I’m not talking about Matt Olson, who was consistently solid once again at first base in ‘25. Rather, the likes of their star Ronald Acuna Jr. and third baseman Austin Riley. If those two are back to their old ways of 2023, then I like this lineup as much as any in the division.

A good lineup or not, I don’t trust the rotation. I think Atlanta will be fortunate to hang in the NL East. If they snatch a wild card spot with the rotation as is, I’ll be impressed.

4th: Marlins

I don’t like the latest news on their breakout star, Kyle Stowers, going down with a hamstring injury. He’ll start the year on the IL for a team that already has a questionable lineup. When Stowers is back, this lineup could be solid, but not scary.

The rotation will rely heavily on a rebound season from former Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara. Their young, talented arm, Eury Perez, is still only 22 but has been injury-prone in his first few seasons at the big-league level. After those two, I don’t know what I’m getting out of Max Meyer, Chris Paddack, and Janson Junk.

Let’s hope that whatever results the arms give the Marlins don’t end with the last word of the prior sentence.

5th: Nationals

I missed this one last year. I thought the Nats would be one of the improved young teams in the NL. It didn’t happen after a 96-loss campaign. They have a couple of intriguing pieces that might be traded in the near future if this team shows no signs of improvement. I’m talking about shortstop CJ Abrams and 2025 All-Star James Wood. After that pair, I have no idea what Washington expects from this lineup.

Then there’s the rotation that no longer has its ace, MacKenzie Gore (traded to Rangers), and will depend on Cade Cavalli, Foster Griffin, Zack Littell, Miles Mikolas, and Jake Irvin to carry the load. That’s not good. A last-place finish seems right.

NL CENTRAL

1st: Pirates

Ughh. I hate this pick. I know the odds are against them, but for every reason I gave last week in FIVE…bold predictions for the 2026 season, I’ll stick with them as my official NL Central winner.

What I don’t like is the Konnor Griffin situation. It was announced a few days ago that he’ll begin the year in Triple-A. I’ve never understood this idea with teams getting an extra year of control if they don’t call up a minor leaguer to start the season. I get it financially, but I wish it would change. Instead, despite the love affair with Griffin and the obvious excitement he would bring at the start of the season to a franchise that has never won this division, fans will have to wait at least a few weeks before the top prospect in baseball makes his debut.

I don’t know if this decision will affect their early-season results or not, but I’m guessing his teammates would rather have Griffin in the lineup on Thursday versus the Mets rather than waiting for that exact time of 171 days (19 days into the season) when he won’t be eligible to qualify for his first year of service time. Anyone who spends 172 days in the majors out of the 190-day season qualifies for a full year of service time.

Anyway, the rest of the team could be okay. Again, this is a bold prediction. A massive improvement from Oneil Cruz would surely make me feel better about this pick. We know what we’re getting from their ace Paul Skenes, but after him, I’m banking on Mitch Keller and Bubba Chandler to deliver some nice outings.

It’s a long shot. It’s probably a lousy pick. I’ll take my chances.

2nd: Cubs

Replacing one former Astro in Kyle Tucker with another former ‘Stros star in Alex Bregman doesn’t excite me. Both of them got rich this offseason with ridiculous contracts that, quite frankly, neither deserved. I don’t see Bregman being any better than last year’s .273/.360/.462 slash line. If he is, will it be enough to help a good but not great offense make the postseason? I don’t know.

The starting staff looks solid on paper, even without the services of southpaw Justin Steele (elbow) for the first half. I can’t say anything negative about it. With Matthew Boyd, Cade Horton, Edward Cabrera, and Shota Imanaga as the top four in the rotation, I kind of like what I’m seeing.

We’ll see how the bullpen holds up with WBC star Daniel Palencia closing out games. I’ll be honest. If I hadn’t made that bold prediction regarding the Buccos last week, the Baby Bears would be my NL Central champion.

3rd: Brewers

Here we go again. I’m underappreciating the Milwaukee Brewers even after a 97-win season. I don’t know what it is anymore with my ignorance toward the Brew Crew. I picked them to finish in last place in ‘25, and they had the best record in MLB. This year, I’m not giving them much hope after losing their ace Freddy Peralta, and yet they’ll probably give me the finger again while winning 90-plus contests in their sleep. Who knows? The only thing I’m sure of is that this franchise is well-run.

I look at this team on paper, and the offense is good at the top. How they do it from spots 5-9 is beyond me. Yet, they find a way. I respect this team, and I am probably unwise to slot them in the three-spot. I’m looking forward to seeing the progression of hitters Jackson Chourio and Brice Turang, as well as Opening Day starter Jacob Misiorowski.

4th: Reds

The loss of ace Hunter Greene (elbow surgery) until at least July is the killer for this team in the long run for me. Greene had to stay healthy to give what should be a solid offense enough opportunities to win. I think the Reds will still be alright for a while, and the return of power-hitter Eugenio Suarez to a lineup that struggled to hit homers last year should be a nice addition.

However, I’m not feeling a playoff berth this year. They snuck in last season as a wild card team thanks to the New York collapse. This feels like a .500ish club again.

5th: Cardinals

This normally would be a weird spot for the Cards. Last-place finishes don’t happen often in St. Louis. But, in 2023, the Redbirds finished fifth in the NL Central for the first time ever. I think it happens again.

The lineup is iffy. I don’t know what to believe anymore with the young bats that many had high hopes for in Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker. Are they going to be good or not? This is the year they need to show something. Their top prospect, JJ Wetherholt, just made the team out of camp. They have high hopes for him as well. Based on recent minor league development results, I’m not excited about anyone coming out of their farm system until they prove something on the big league stage.

The rotation looks about as talented as it has for the last few years. That’s to say, not all that talented. Adding Dustin May (7-11, 4.96 ERA in ‘25) as your #3 option should scare Cardinals fans more than excite them.

NL WEST

1st: Dodgers

Who else? Seriously, who else? As with last season, I expect this to be a gimme pick. I won’t take much pride in picking the overwhelming favorite to win this division. Saying that, LA only won the NL West by three games last year. Their 93 victories were good enough for the third-best record in the National League.

The facts are that, on paper, this squad is better than last year’s. As you read on, you’ll see if I’m a believer in this team making the Fall Classic again. I’ve already said in my five bold predictions last week that I don’t believe they’ll three-peat as World Series champs.

I’m not even going to bother mentioning all the star power that I’m quite sure everyone who has made it this far knows about. They are loaded on both the offensive and defensive sides, and their pitching should be terrific at full strength. If this team starts showing its age, and some of those older bats start declining and landing on the IL, then this club might be more vulnerable come October than it has been in years. Saying that, I can’t pick anyone above Los Angeles over 162 games.

2nd: Padres

If San Diego can get a full, injury-free season from the top three in their rotation (Nick Pivetta, Michael King, and Randy Vasquez), then I see very little reason to doubt their ability to make the postseason for a third straight year. With fireballer Mason Miller closing out games, any lead they have in the ninth should be safe most of the time.

The offense will be good once again. I’d like to see centerfielder Jackson Merrill put 2025 behind him and start to build off his nice rookie campaign from the year before. If Merrill can do that, and Fernando Tatis Jr. can prove that his pre-PED suspension numbers were legit by getting back to something similar, then maybe the Friars will once again have a say in the NL West race. They fell three games short of the Dodgers last year.

3rd: Giants

There is one glaring concern on this roster. The bullpen. I don’t like it. I don’t trust it. I don’t believe in it. Take your pick. This is a pen made up of relatively unknown players and a closer, Ryan Walker, who has been really good at times but fell back a ways in 2025.

If the bullpen figures it out, then there’s something to seriously consider in San Francisco this season. Could they make the playoffs? I love the addition of three-time batting champ Luis Arraez. I think Rafael Devers will be good, maybe not great, but certainly better than what he showed after joining the Giants mid-season last year (.236/.347/.460 slash line in 90 games played). The rest of the lineup has some question marks, but for the most part, it’s serviceable and should score enough runs to keep them in games.

As far as the rotation is concerned, I’ll take Logan Webb on my team any day. Robbie Ray, when healthy, can be one of the best lefties in the game. The Giants have a nice 1-2 punch to start the year. After that, it’s hard to say.

This team is good enough to compete for a wild-card spot. I think they’ll fall short in the end and miss the postseason for the fifth consecutive year.

4th: Diamondbacks

I want to believe that Arizona can get back to what it was in 2023 when it claimed the NL pennant. I want a lot of things in life, but I don’t always get them. Sorry, D-backs, but you’re not winning a pennant, let alone grabbing a playoff berth in ‘26.

The lineup is solid at the top with Geraldo Perdomo (if he can repeat his breakout ‘25 season), Ketel Marte (if he can stay healthy), and Corbin Caroll (if he can hit the way he did in ‘23). A lot of ifs offensively, but not nearly as many as a rotation that re-signed Zac Gallen (13-15, 4.83 ERA in ‘25) and will be waiting on the return of former ace Corbin Burnes (TJ surgery, projected mid-season return).

My feeling is that just about everything will have to go right for Arizona to compete in a good NL West. I think three teams are better at full strength.

5th: Rockies

The only true gimme division pick I’ll be making today happens to be the last one. That’s fitting, because this team will finish no better than last place in the NL West and maybe the entire National League. Do I need to go over the roster to persuade readers of this? I don’t think so, but here’s a glimpse.

The Rockies’ projected Opening Day lineup:

The Rockies’ projected Opening Day rotation:

And that’s all she wrote. Better luck next year.

I’ll make the rest of this quick.

AL POSTSEASON TEAMS

AL East: Red Sox

AL Central: Tigers

AL West: Mariners

AL wild card teams: Yankees, Blue Jays, Royals

NL POSTSEASON TEAMS

NL East: Phillies

NL Central: Pirates

NL West: Dodgers

NL wild card teams: Mets, Cubs, Padres

WORLD SERIES

Phillies over Yankees

I’m going with two teams from the East. They will both be battle-tested by this point in the season. If anyone can take out the Dodgers in October, it’s the Phillies. The Yanks will have to make this run as a wild-card team, according to my predictions, but if Cole is back and at full strength by October, this rotation will be formidable.

At full health, these two rotations are plenty good enough to get to the Fall Classic. The offenses on both sides speak for themselves.

If this is the matchup, it feels like another seven-game World Series in the making. The Phillies find a way to their first WS championship since 2008.

Thanks for sticking around, everyone. Enjoy the first week of the regular season. If you’re interested in an Opening Week preview to get you ready for the new season, I’ll be writing about all 15 series on Pitcher List. Here’s a link to my Pitcher List author page, where you can find all of my articles. The first one will be released on Wednesday around 3 PM Eastern. Don’t forget, the Yankees and Giants begin the new campaign five hours after my article is up.

Have a great week.

Share

Subscribe now

Hey, everyone. Who’s excited for the “true” Opening Day of MLB? I know, I know, we had the Tokyo Series last week between the defending champs and the Cubbies, but did anyone really feel like that was the start of the regular season? I, for one, did not. There’s something about starting America’s pastime in Japan at 3 AM Pacific time, which feels wrong. If you want to play a two-game exhibition over there and have some fun, then by all means, do it. But, come on now, we all know on Thursday at 3 PM Eastern, Major League Baseball truly begins.

I tried to stretch this out as long as I could given that seemingly every day, we have a new, relatively substantial injury around the league. Given my history of poor preseason picks (I’ll get to that later), I wanted to take every advantage possible to make the most up-to-date and, hopefully, accurate picks I can before Opening Day.

Some notes

I’ve been busy working with the website PitcherList over the last few weeks. I’ve taken on a role as a feature and morning news writer for the highly popular fantasy baseball site. For the last couple of years, they’ve expanded their page into more than just fantasy-related news, and that’s where writers like myself and others come in handy. As I’m writing, I’ll leave links below, given that much of what will be covered today will go hand in hand with the preseason articles written on that site.

Also, thank you to those who chimed in recently to some of my latest articles on Baseball Fan Perspective. I haven’t posted anything here since mid-February, but the article that obviously brought a lot of you to this site and continues even a month later to receive comments from many readers was the FIVE...MLB franchises that should be cut if the league went to 25 teams.

I didn’t expect that theoretical topic's running conversation and interest level to garner so much attention. Still, I loved reading the variety of comments and different opinions about what five franchises you would cut today if forced to as the league commissioner. The opinions were all over the place, which made it fun. If you haven’t checked out that article or some of the reader comments, I highly recommend it. Some great stuff, and again, thank you to everyone who easily made that article the most popular read by far on BFP in its two-plus years of existence.

Now, let’s get to the hard part of today. Making the always inaccurate preseason predictions. What I do is try to predict the exact finish, 1-5, in all six divisions, followed by my 12 playoff teams, and on and on.

I’m going to start with a little BFP history lesson, and I’ll even leave the links for some of those predictions below to verify how bad I’ve been at this. Click anything that is underlined if you want to see what a disaster looks like.

In 2023, I correctly picked three out of 15 American League teams (20%) in the exact spot they finished in their respective divisions. For the National League, I got five right (33%). Overall, I correctly predicted eight out of 30 spots between the two leagues. Yeah, that stinks.

Fast forward to 2024, I went with the same process of breaking down every team, giving readers what I thought at the time was pretty accurate information backing up my picks, and then, sadly, the results weren’t much better as the previous year. Six of 15 in the AL (40%) and only four of 15 in the NL (27%). Overall, 10 of 30 were correct, which was at least better than ‘23.

Finally, as far as my prediction of the 12 playoff teams each year, I accurately predicted five of 12 in 2023 and did one better last season with six (50%). Yikes! Even sadder, I’ve had Atlanta defeating Houston in the World Series the last two years. So, given that neither has been in the Fall Classic in that time, makes my pennant selections for the previous two seasons at 0-for-4.

All around awfulness by the writer of BFP. Let’s try this again and hope that in Year 3 of division, playoff, and World Series predictions, I’m at least at 50% all-around accuracy with everything posted today.

*I’m going to change this up a bit. In past years, I’ve broken down what I like and dislike about every team. As you know, that didn’t do me any favors. Instead of wasting space and time, I will give one sentence for every team and leave it at that. Maybe, less is more in the end. If you want full breakdowns of my thoughts, I’ll leave you links to my PitcherList predictions further down. Wish me luck. Let’s begin.

AL EAST

1. Blue Jays

   This is the third and final time I am picking Toronto to win this division, and if they fail to do so once again in 2025, I won’t be picking them next year, especially after Bo Bichette bounces back from a lousy ‘24 campaign and the addition of slugger Anthony Santander from Baltimore provides Vlad Guerrero Jr. some legit protection.

2. Orioles

   I do not like this pitching staff as it stands today, nor the early season injury to their star, Gunnar Henderson, but they are still really young and talented and, at worst, shouldn’t finish below third in this division.

3. Red Sox

   I could see the Sox finishing anywhere from first to fifth in the AL East depending on how their starting pitching staff holds up, but it isn’t easy to have them at the top, despite the additions of the talented SP Garrett Crochet and veteran bat Alex Bregman, which combined certainly improves the roster from last year.

4. Yankees

   Way too many losses to their starting rotation (Cole, Gil, Schmidt), and throw in the loss of Juan Soto with the hopes that Paul Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger somehow make up for the production of last year’s AL MVP third-place finisher is wishful thinking.

5. Rays

   The Rays always end up being better than most predict, but their offense is lacking, and with recent news that their hopeful ace Shane McClanahan is injured once again, I’m not seeing a path to 80-plus wins this year.

AL CENTRAL

1. Royals

   I have a feeling that Kansas City will be the talk of the American League, and Bobby Witt Jr. is taking home the AL MVP Award as the veteran rotation holds off the Guardians late in the season for the division crown.

2. Guardians

   A definite division and playoff contender with last year’s phenomenal bullpen still pretty much intact and the most underrated star in the game, Jose Ramirez, battling Witt Jr. for the MVP award.

3. Tigers

   This is a tricky team to figure out because I’m not sure if last year’s final two months of unbelievable baseball is repeatable again for an offense with many question marks, but thankfully, it still has the services of the AL Cy Young winner, Tarik Skubal.

4. Twins

   This franchise is only as good as their health, and already it’s looking like another injury-prone season for the talented Royce Lewis (hamstring), and given that their next best options, arguably, are Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa, I’m not sensing they’ll have any offensive threats on the field by the second half of the season.

5. White Sox

   I have a hard time believing Chicago will be 120-plus losses bad again, but this is the pick in the American League I’m most confident in, given that anything but a last-place finish would be shocking.

AL WEST

1. Astros

   They can lose Bregman and Kyle Tucker (key parts to their past World Series runs) but still manage to win this division once again for the eighth time in nine years, as the overall talent level remains as good as any in the AL West.

2. Rangers

   If it weren’t for the question marks in the starting rotation, I would take this team over any in the American League; however, the reality is that Jacob deGrom must stay healthy for the first time in years, yet the offense is still good enough to carry this team to a division title and, at the very least, make the playoffs.

3. Mariners

   It’s the same old story in Seattle, which is that until they get some legitimate bats in the lineup, the deepest rotation in the AL is going to have to keep the scores low just to give this franchise a chance to probably fall one game short of the playoffs for a third straight season.

4. Athletics

   A new location in Sacramento won’t make the A’s any better than last year, but it will make for an interesting watch, and maybe they’ll improve from 2024 and win 75 games or so.

5. Angels

   Center field, left field, right field, or any other position Mike Trout decides to play won’t change anything in Anaheim this year, as the Angels will be lucky to finish any better than fourth place.

NL EAST

1. Braves

   I was wrong about Atlanta last season as I didn’t foresee the myriad of injuries that would come their way, but “IF” fully healthy by midseason, this team should be as good as anyone in this division, and, maybe, in all of baseball.

2. Phillies

   Until the names Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Bryce Harper, and the rest of the Phillies’ familiar faces begin to decline, I’m not picking against them making the postseason.

3. Mets

   Adding Juan Soto and re-signing Pete Alonso to form one of the most formidable top three in the batting order in all of baseball, along with Francisco Lindor, should automatically keep New York above .500 and competing for both a division title and a wild card spot.

4. Nationals

   I’m looking forward to watching the Nationals steadily improve with a new mix of veterans in the middle of the lineup, along with the emergence of some of their young guns like Dylan Crews and James Wood, but Washington won’t be in the playoff mix come September.

5. Marlins

   The Fish stink and other than the comeback of former Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara (Tommy John surgery), there’s really not much to get excited about in Miami.

NL CENTRAL

1. Cubs

   The addition of right fielder Kyle Tucker to a team that has fallen just short of the playoffs over the last two years gives Cubs fans reason to believe that their four-year postseason drought is ending in ‘25.

2. Reds

   New manager Terry Francona should make Cincy a legitimate threat in the NL Central, but other than star Elly De La Cruz, finding another trustworthy and consistent bat for the entire campaign could be difficult.

3. Cardinals

   I still can’t believe this team won 83 games last year, given that no one mashed more than 22 homers (Goldschmidt led the team) and their young potential stars, Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman, didn’t do squat to help the Redbirds; therefore, I see only improvement in St. Louis.

4. Pirates

   Pitching phenom Paul Skenes could go 30-0 on the bump this year, and it’s still difficult to picture the Buccos winning many games not involving their ace; thus, the questionable rotation arms not named Skenes and an offense that underachieves every season leads me to believe that Pittsburgh is no better than the 2024 version.

5. Brewers

   On PitcherList, I made a bold prediction that Milwaukee would go from first to last in the NL Central, and though I won’t believe it until I see it, part of me thinks it is possible, given the lack of pitching depth and some question marks offensively (is Christian Yelich’s back going to hold up?)

NL WEST

1. Dodgers

   I don’t think it’s as near a guarantee to win the NL West as many pundits believe it to be, but BFP is not picking against the Dodgers this year.

2. Diamondbacks

   The addition of Corbin Burnes to an already talented rotation gives Arizona a shot to repeat its ‘23 success and return to the World Series if Corbin Carroll returns to what made him the unanimous 2023 NL Rookie of the Year.

3. Padres

   There’s no doubt the talent is there, but if they fall out of the playoff race early due to some hangover from last year’s Division Series loss to L.A., then it sounds like some of their best arms could very well be traded, and, therefore, San Diego would have no shot at a playoff berth.

4. Giants

   If a vintage Justin Verlander and Robbie Ray remain on the field and help staff ace Logan Webb keep enough runs off the board to allow a potentially solid offense to score enough runs to win games, then a fight for the postseason is in the mix.

5. Rockies

   They seem to get worse every season, and I’m beginning to think that this is going to be the lousiest franchise in MLB for years to come, given that it’s impossible to convince any highly regarded starting hurler to join a rotation in that hitter’s haven called Coors Field.

AL POSTSEASON TEAMS

AL East: Blue Jays

AL Central: Royals

AL West: Astros

AL wild card teams: Orioles, Guardians, Rangers

NL POSTSEASON TEAMS

NL East: Braves

NL Central: Cubs

NL West: Dodgers

NL wild card teams: Phillies, Mets, Diamondbacks

PLAYOFF RESULTS

*Dare me to pick Atlanta over Houston for a third straight year? Sorry, but I don’t feel it this time.

ALCS

Royals over Rangers

Reason: It’s different. I’m tired of picking Houston and failing. I need to do better and take some risks. I also believe in Kansas City’s veteran-led starting rotation and the young superstar Witt Jr. to lead this team back to the World Series for the first time since they won it in 2015.

NLCS

Dodgers over Braves

Reason: Even if both teams happen to be fully healthy by mid-October (how great a watch that would be for all of us), I have a hard time seeing Atlanta’s pitching depth matching up with the Dodgers. In a perfect world, this series would go seven games and come down to the final inning. It’s possible, but I don’t see how the Braves ultimately knock out L.A. in a seven-game series.

WORLD SERIES

Dodgers over Royals

Reason: Wow, what a story it would make if, in A Battle of the Blues, the major underdog shocked the world by knocking out Goliath. But if this World Series does happen, I predict it will be over in four or five contests. Congrats to the Royals on getting here, but the Dodgers are built to become the first repeat champs since the Yankees won three straight from 1998-2000.

Overall, I feel pretty confident in these picks. My goal is to get better every year and realistically get half of everything written above correct. Given where my pick percentage has been in the first two years of BFP, I’ll take anything around the .500 mark.

For more in-depth reasoning behind my picks, here is a link to my PitcherList author page, where you can find recent stories dealing with predictions and thoughts on why every team could make the playoffs and be left on the outside looking in. I’ll be writing the MLB Morning News for PitcherList on Fridays, so if you’d like, check out the link above this Friday for Opening Day coverage.

Until then, feel free to comment on any of my preseason predictions. I’m curious to know your thoughts on the upcoming season. Who will surprise? Who will see their demise? Let me know.

Thanks for stopping by. Glad to be back. My next post on BFP will be on Monday, and I will share my thoughts on the opening weekend via Impressed or Unimpressed. Until then, enjoy the first weekend of MLB regular season action.

Share

Subscribe now

Now to Round 3. The preseason playoff predictions, also known by many as the Alston Guessathon. I’ve already made my division picks for spots 1-5 in both the American League and National League. Check them out if you haven’t already. Based on those, here is what we know so far:

Division Winners

AL East: Blue Jays

AL Central: Guardians

AL West: Astros

NL East: Braves

NL Central: Cubs

NL West: Dodgers

That leaves six down and six wild card teams to select. For reference, here are last year’s BFP playoff predictions. As you will see, I incorrectly picked four of the six division winners, and only five of my predicted 12 teams qualified for the postseason. 2023 was an awful year for me.

In the end, between my ALCS (Astros over Jays) and NLCS (Braves over Cardinals), only the ‘Stros made the League Championship Series. My World Series prediction of Atlanta over Houston in a rematch of the ‘21 World Series was a bit off the mark.

Let’s try this again. For fun, I’m going to predict the seeding for each team and guess the matchups for each round as well. If I miss those, that’s fine. The most important part for the sake of pride is to successfully have more than five of my playoff teams actually make it to October this season. Here we go.

AMERICAN LEAGUE WILD CARD TEAMS

Wild Card #1 (4th seed overall): Rangers

Wild Card #2 (5th seed): Orioles

Wild Card #3 (6th seed): Mariners

In the hunt but falling short: Yankees and Twins

NATIONAL LEAGUE WILD CARD TEAMS

Wild Card #1 (4th seed overall): Diamondbacks

Wild Card #2 (5th seed): Phillies

Wild Card #3 (6th seed): Giants

In the hunt but falling short: Cardinals, Brewers, Padres

PLAYOFF MATCHUPS AND SEEDINGS

AMERICAN LEAGUE

#1 Houston Astros (AL West winner) *BYE to ALDS

#2 Toronto Blue Jays (AL East winner) *BYE to ALDS

American League Wild Card Series (Best-of-3)

#6 Mariners at #3 Guardians

Prediction: Mariners win 2-0.

Seattle’s starting pitching is too much for the mediocre Guardians offense to handle. Despite fans begging Cleveland ownership to make a huge splash at the Trade Deadline for an elite power bat, they were unable to do so. The Mets nearly traded Pete Alonso to Cleveland after falling out of contention in June. However, the first baseman declines the trade and rumors float around that he’d rather join his old teammates Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom in Texas. That doesn’t happen.

#5 Orioles at #4 Rangers

Prediction: Rangers win 2-1.

It’s a rematch of the 2023 ALDS, only this time Texas has home field for every contest and the series is Best-of-3. The Rangers match up well with the O’s once again as their bats take care of business in a Game 3 blowout victory against Baltimore’s SP Kyle Bradish.

American League Divison Series (Best-of-5)

#1 Astros versus #4 Rangers

Prediction: Astros win 3-2.

The American League matchup everyone is anticipating after the Astros and Rangers battle all season for the AL West crown. In the end, the teams tie for the best record in the division for a second consecutive season. Thanks to commissioner Rob Manfred destroying Tiebreaker Game 163, Rangers manager Bruce Bochy calls him out before the postseason begins, demanding that divisions are once again settled on the field as they should be. Manfred’s response to Bochy, “Maybe after I retire in 2029.”

Back to the series. After last year’s wild seven-game ALCS between these squads that saw the road team win every game, Houston responds with an exciting victory at home in Game 5 thanks to Rangers starting hurler Max Scherzer giving up five runs in two innings and then being removed with back spasms. The Texas bats are unable to respond against the daunting Astros bullpen late in the contest. Houston gets its revenge on the Rangers.

#2 Blue Jays versus #6 Mariners

Prediction: Blue Jays win 3-1.

The Mariners sneak into the playoffs on the last weekend of the season, narrowly holding off the Twins and Yankees for the final wild-card spot. After an impressive road series win in Cleveland, they travel to Toronto and take on starting pitchers Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios in the first two games. The Jays keep the Mariners bats in check and with a 2-0 series lead head to T-Mobile Park where the home crowd wills Seattle to an easy Game 3 win.

In Game 4, one-time Toronto ace Alek Manoah demands the ball despite posting an ERA over five in the regular season. Manoah stuns the Mariners with six shutout frames before Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. bust the game open with big knocks late in the contest and finally end their playoff hitting woes. Canada’s team heads to their first ALCS since 2016.

American League Championship Series (Best-of-7)

#1 Astros versus #2 Blue Jays

Prediction: Astros win 4-2.

Houston takes care of business in the first two contests at home but struggles offensively in Games 3 and 4. Yordan Alvarez is 1-for-14 in the series up to this point and asks manager Joe Espada to move him out of the two-hole and back to hitting where he’s comfortable behind Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman. Espada obliges his star slugger and Alvarez responds with two homers in Game 5 and a 4-for-4 day at the dish in a Game 6 win to lead Houston to its third World Series appearance in four years.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

#1 Atlanta Braves (NL East winner) *BYE to NLDS

#2 Los Angeles Dodgers (NL West winner) *BYE to NLDS

National League Wild Card Series (Best-of-3)

#6 Giants at #3 Cubs

Prediction: Giants win 2-1.

San Fran battles all season long for a wild card berth before pulling away in late September with a 7-2 record in their last nine contests. The Cubbies faithful are rocking in Game 1 at Wrigley Field and Justin Steele shuts down the Giants offense. However, in Games 2 and 3, San Francisco sends their two aces Blake Snell and Logan Webb to the bump. They both claim wins after allowing three runs over 13 innings combined. Kyle Hendricks and Shoto Imanaga battle hard in their starts for Chicago, but take the L’s.

Cody Bellinger announces in the postgame press conference that he will not be opting out of his three-year, $80 million deal and will return to the Cubs in 2025 after going 0-for-12 in the series.

#5 Phillies at #4 Diamondbacks

Prediction: Diamondbacks win 2-0.

For some reason, the Phillies never get over the prior season’s shocking loss to Arizona in the NLCS. Bad memories of leading the series 3-2 before dropping the final two contests at Citizens Banks Park in Philadelphia still haunt Bryce Harper and company to this day. Arizona reminds the Phils who went to the World Series in 2023 and Zac Gallen outduels Zack Wheeler in Game 1 while the late March signing of Jordan Montgomery pays off in a Game 2 blowout win. Montgomery tosses five shutout frames and is removed with his team ahead 4-0 after Phillies ace Aaron Nola deals with control issues.

The key to the series on the offensive side comes down to the battle of the leadoff hitters. Arizona’s Corbin Carroll sets the tone for the series going 6-for-8 with one walk and no strikeouts while Kyle Schwarber fresh off his second straight campaign with a batting average below .200, goes 1-for-6 with two walks and five strikeouts. D-backs move on.

National League Divison Series (Best-of-5)

#1 Braves versus #4 Diamondbacks

Prediction: Braves win 3-0.

Though Chris Sale is unavailable for the series after undergoing Tommy John surgery on his UCL in July, Atlanta’s rotation is still set up how they want it with Spencer Strider, Max Fried, and ‘Old Man Morton’, aka Charlie Morton lined up for the first three contests.

Confidence shines on the faces of all the Braves players as they realize they won’t be facing the Phillies for a third consecutive time in the NLDS. With an unfamiliar playoff opponent arriving at Truist Park, Atlanta dominates the first two games at home by outscoring the D-backs 14-2 in both contests combined.

In Game 3, Arizona sends their ace Gallen to the bump in hopes of making this a series, but Morton ruins Zac’s respectable outing with his best performance in quite some time. Six shutout innings, six hits allowed and six strikeouts. Not bad for a 40-year-old. After the game, GM Alex Anthoupolous offers Morton another $20 million to pitch for the Braves in 2025. Morton accepts the deal. Braves advance to the NLCS.

#2 Dodgers versus #6 Giants

Prediction: Dodgers win 3-2.

It’s not an easy series for the Blue Crew despite owning San Fran during the regular season with a 9-4 head-to-head record. The teams trade blows over the first four contests including in a thrilling 10-9 walk-off win for the Giants in Game 4 on a two-out bases loaded Jung Hoo Lee ant-killer groundball that Dodgers reliever Joe Kelly is unable to field in front of the mound. Thairo Estrada comes around to score the winning run for the home team.

Back in Los Angeles, the pressure is mounting as the Dodgers realize it’s a must-win contest. Rookie Yasamoto Yoshninobu gets the call after a brilliant start in Game 1. The Giants counter with Snell’s experience and hand the ball to the two-time Cy Young winner. After a valiant pitcher’s duel that saw both starters go six innings of one-run ball, the bullpens take over.

Unfortunately, Giants manager Bob Melvin makes a critical error by calling on the wrong Rogers brother out of the pen to face Freddie Freeman with a man on in the ninth inning and the game still tied at one. When Melvin realizes right-hander Tyler Rogers is out there to face the lefty, he pleads with the umps that a mistake was made. He meant to call on the brother, southpaw Taylor Rogers.

With rules being what they are, and the three-batter minimum regulation in effect, Tyler has no choice but to stay in the game. Freeman lines a double to right on the first pitch scoring Mookie Betts for the series-ending run. The Dodgers move onto the NLCS in thrilling fashion.

National League Championship Series (Best-of-7)

#1 Braves versus #2 Dodgers

Prediction: Braves win 4-2.

The pressure is immense for the two heavy preseason National League favorites. Los Angeles stuns Atlanta with a Game 1 blowout at the hands of Strider, but the Braves respond with back-to-back six-run victories to take a 2-1 series lead. In Game 4, Morton, fresh off signing a new $20 million deal to play for Atlanta in 2025, slips on the mound in pregame warmups and tears his Achilles. The postseason ends early once again for ‘Old Man Mort’. Yamamoto holds the Bravos to three runs over six frames for the win and a quality start. Series even 2-2.

Max Fried tosses a Game 5 gem versus Walker Buehler who never finds his stuff in ‘24 after elbow surgery kept him out of commission for all of 2023. Buehler surrenders six runs in three innings and the Braves return to Truist Park ahead in the series 3-2.

In Game 6, Bryce Elder gets a surprise call to start for Atlanta. The Braves said they wanted to save Strider for a potential must-win Game 7 or the first game of the World Series. The Dodgers send SP Tyler Glasnow to the bump following a rocky Game 2 start and he lasts only three frames due to arm fatigue after tossing a career-high 125 innings during the regular season. With Atlanta ahead 4-1 in the fourth, the Dodgers mount a comeback behind a Shohei Ohtani game-tying three-run dinger to right off Elder.

The game remains tied at four into the bottom of the ninth. Manager Dave Roberts can’t decide whether or not to call on future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw out of the pen to keep the contest even. Kershaw has seen very little action in the postseason up to this point and when he returned from the IL in mid-September his mechanics led to a 7.50 ERA over nine innings pitched.

Meanwhile, Ohtani notices the stress on his skipper’s face and volunteers to come out of the bullpen and pitch for the first time in 2024. Roberts waves him off despite Shohei’s latest interpreter telling the manager that his new best friend says, “Remember what I did to Mike Trout in last year’s WBC championship game? You can trust me. I bet on myself in this situation.” After Roberts contemplates the decision for a moment, he goes with his legendary southpaw Mr. Kershaw.

Following a Michael Harris leadoff double to start the frame, panic begins to set in for Kershaw. He’s been here before and with a lifetime record of 13-13 in the postseason, his confidence isn’t high. Next up, catcher Sean Murphy. On a 3-1 slider over the middle of the plate, Murphy drills a walk-off two-run homer to left. Atlanta wins 6-4 and heads back to the Fall Classic for a 2021 rematch with the Astros.

In a tear-jerker moment following the loss, Kershaw announces his retirement after a brilliant 17-year career. The conversation quickly turns to rumors of Ohtani asking Roberts to pitch in the ninth inning. Both Shohei, Roberts and the interpreter deny it ever happened. The press conference ends with Ohtani’s interpreter saying, “Bet on Shohei to pitch on Opening Day in 2025.”

World Series (Best-of-7)

Braves (NL Champ) versus Astros (AL Champ)

Prediction: Braves win 4-2.

Atlanta earns home-field advantage in this ‘21 World Series rematch thanks to winning three more games than the Astros during the regular season. 104 to 101 to be exact. The first two contests are split after Houston shows the world once again how good of a team they are on the road with a dominant 10-3 Game 2 victory.

In a battle of 30-year-old southpaws, Fried gets the nod for Atlanta in Game 3 against Houston’s Framber Valdez. Both have big game experience, but Valdez’s postseason struggles from ‘23 carry over to 2024 and once again he inexplicably gets crushed in the playoffs. Atlanta wins 9-4.

Game 4 is all about the great Justin Verlander, who officially announces before the contest that this would be his last season in the big leagues. Verlander holds the Braves to two runs over six frames in what is likely his last start in the majors. Series tied at two.

Hunter Brown gets the nod in Game 5 for the ‘Stros, but gives up five runs in five innings for the loss. Spencer Strider earns his second win of the series after yielding two runs with 11 strikeouts over 6.2 innings. The Braves head back to Atlanta for Game 6 up 3-2 in the series.

Many anticipate a tight game and for Houston to show some of that road warrior mentality they’ve been known to have over their eight-year prominence, but the Bravos score five runs in the first off Cristian Javier and use six pitchers to get through eight frames before closer Raisel Iglesias enters in the ninth with his team ahead 7-1.

Astros second baseman Altuve leads off the ninth with a double and after a Bregman single drives in the second run of the contest for Houston, they still trail by five with Alvarez up to bat. Iglesias gets Alvarez to fly out to the warning track in right. Next up, Kyle Tucker hits a sac fly to center to bring home Bregman for his sixth RBI of the series.

Finally, with the bases empty, two outs, and the score 7-3 in favor of the Braves, Houston calls on pinch hitter Michael Brantley (he comes out of retirement in July if you didn’t know) to keep the season alive. After a 12-pitch duel, flurried with foul ball after foul ball, Iglesias finally gets the 16-year vet to ground out softly to Matt Olson at first base to end the season.

The Braves celebrate their World Series championship in style with a massive postgame party. Meanwhile, the Astros answer a few questions after the game about this being the end of an era in Houston and all the other usual banter that has come their way over the last few seasons. The only player to definitively say it’s over is Michael Brantley who announces his retirement for the second time in less than a year.

That concludes my story of the 2024 MLB postseason. At this point, I figure if breaking down each series with a little extra narrative doesn’t produce better results with my predictions, then next season will be nothing but picks for you, which will save everyone from my over-the-top crystal ball view of how the postseason will flow.

I’ll probably be incorrect on most of the gibberish above, but am I the only one who thinks in a must-win game for the Dodgers this season, that it’s possible Ohtani would volunteer to come out of the pen and save the day? We might find out in October. Until then, let’s enjoy the non-fiction version of the upcoming campaign and get ready for Opening Day.

Enjoy the games. I’ll be back tomorrow with an Opening Day Quickcap. Talk to you soon. Thanks for stopping by.

Share

Subscribe now

Onto Round 2. Last year’s National League predictions were a tad better (5-for-15 accuracy) than my AL picks (3-for-15). A .333 average looks much nicer on paper than a .200 mark, but still, 2024 must have better results.

Looking at the National League, there are a few slam dunk picks. Or, maybe a safer way to put it is “should be” slam dunks. The Braves and Dodgers winning their respective divisions ought to be two easy points for me. Another ‘gimme’ is having the Colorado Rockies as the last-place team in the NL West. The challenge came with the other 12 teams.

I feel fairly confident with my 1-5 orders in each division below, but wouldn’t be surprised to see another .333 pick percentage next to my name once again in 2024. Here we go.

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST

My 2023 predictions *The incorrect team has a strikethrough with the actual squad that finished in that position listed to its right. Bold indicates that I correctly predicted the proper place for that team.

1st: Braves

2nd: Mets (Phillies)

3rd: Phillies (Marlins)

4th: Marlins (Mets)

5th: Nationals

2024 PREDICTIONS

1st: Braves

Like: Make it seven consecutive division titles for the Braves. Winning during the regular season has not been much of an issue for this franchise since their first of 14 straight division championships from 1991-2005. Sometimes I forget that Atlanta didn’t win 14 consecutive NL East crowns because their first three to start that incredible run came while still playing in the NL West. Anyway, this is and always has been a team built for pre-October baseball.

As mentioned yesterday in the American League predictions, besides the Astros, there is only one other team in MLB that I’m high on in all three departments. That would be this franchise.

The offense goes without saying. It was historic last season and has pretty much the same group returning.

The starting rotation as of Opening Day is strong. 2023 MLB strikeout leader Spencer Strider leads the way with injury-prone hurlers Max Fried and newly acquired Chris Sale behind him. Fried and Sale will need to stay relatively healthy, but even if they have some bumps along the way, Atlanta has enough resources in the minors to keep the pitching afloat.

The bullpen is deep and has a great mix of talented righties and lefties to keep opponents guessing.

Dislike: October. Just ask the ‘21 Braves (World Series champs) and the current Phillies, Diamondbacks, and Rangers teams about recent success in the playoffs as underdogs. Atlanta has never worn the favorite sleeve well in the postseason and until they prove to the league that having home-field advantage is not a bad thing, then I’m not overly excited about their regular season success.

A final thought: If they can avoid the Phillies for a third consecutive Best-of-5 meeting in the Division Series, that would most likely lead to better results for a team that has had their World Series title hopes crushed in four games by Philadelphia in each of the last two Octobers.

2nd: Phillies

Like: Speaking of the Phillies. It’s hard not to like a team that is bringing back virtually the same starting lineup and rotation as last year’s squad. They can go toe to toe offensively with anyone.

The top of their rotation with Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola has proven recently that they can match up with any other starting pitching duo in a big game.

Dislike: Over the long haul of 162 contests, Philadelphia is still the second-best team on paper in this division. It feels like they are once again destined for a Best-of-3 Wild Card round where anything could go wrong. Philly had no issues in their previous two NLWC matchups against Miami in ‘23 and the Cardinals the year before, but that might not always be the case.

A final thought: The Phils won 90 games last season and finished 14 games back of Atlanta for first place. They should be able to keep it under double digits this season. This is a scary team when everything is clicking. One way or another, Philadelphia ought to be in the postseason.

3rd: Marlins

Like: Luis Arraez. Anyone who wins back-to-back batting titles in two separate leagues has my approval. This will be Arraez’s sixth season in the big leagues and though he doesn’t provide much power, he walks more than he strikes out. Who doesn’t want a career .326 hitter leading off for their team? Maybe the Phillies? *see Kyle Schwarber’s .197 batting average and MLB-worst 215 strikeouts in 2023

Dislike: Starting pitching health. Sandy Alcantara is out for the season after Tommy John Surgery on his UCL, but we already knew that months ago. The problem for the Marlins is that once again 20-year-old flamethrower Eury Perez will be on the IL, while Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera are having some early season health issues of their own.

The lineup isn’t great. I don’t trust Jazz Chisholm Jr. and former White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson to hold up their end of the bargain by not only staying healthy but adding a positive contribution to the middle part of the order even when they are unscathed. Anderson is projected to hit in the five-hole and had a grand total of one dinger last year in 123 games played. Is that the best Miami can provide its fans after earning a playoff berth in ‘23?

A final thought: Not this year. This is a two playoff team division and The Fish aren’t one of them.

4th: Mets

Like: I like that Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are gone. Neither did their part in 2023 to help the Mets succeed with high expectations. Despite New York trading both hurlers away last year and still having to eat just north of $45 million of their combined contracts in 2024, they are good riddances.

Pete Alonso is one of the best power hitters in the game. His .217 batting average last season was well below his career norm and if he can improve on that while also delivering 40 or more homers, then the Mets offense should be solid.

Dislike: The pitching, other than Edwin Diaz in the ninth frame. Diaz is back after missing all of ‘23 with an ankle injury. He was the best closer in 2022 (61 IP, 32 saves, 1.31 ERA, 118 K). However, the rest of the pen leading up to New York’s stud is mediocre at best.

A final thought: This isn’t a playoff team, especially with their staff ace Kodai Senga likely out until sometime in May with a right shoulder strain. The Mets feel like a .500 squad. They could finish in third place ahead of Miami if things go well.

5th: Nationals

Like: They improved by 16 games from 2022 to 2023. This a franchise going through the very definition of a ‘rebuild’ and so far it’s hard to argue that it’s beginning to show promise.

C.J. Abrams and Lane Thomas formed a solid 1-2 punch at the top of the Nationals batting order last season. If center fielder Victor Robles can stay on the field and look like the player he was on his way to becoming in 2019, then maybe Washington will win somewhere between 75 and 78 contests. Is that asking too much?

Dislike: The problem with the Nats since their 2019 World Series title is that they haven’t found an ace to replace the likes of Scherzer and now “unofficially” retired Stephen Strasburg. Many thought the third arm in that championship rotation, Patrick Corbin, was going to be the staff leader going forward. Instead, he’s led the NL in losses for three consecutive seasons.

A final thought: If sooner rather than later the Nats can get a couple of legit starting pitchers, then we may be looking at a playoff contender in a few seasons. However, a lot can happen from now until then. As of this moment, it’s difficult to see Washington finishing anywhere but the basement in the NL East.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL

My 2023 predictions

1st: Cardinals (Brewers)

2nd: Brewers (Cubs)

3rd: Cubs (Reds)

4th: Pirates

5th: Reds (Cardinals)

2024 PREDICTIONS

1st: Cubs

Like: It feels about that time for the Cubbies to win their first division championship since 2020.

Top to bottom, this is the best overall offense in the NL Central. After re-signing Cody Bellinger in the offseason for more than I would have paid him (3-years, $80 million), the middle of the order should be fine.

Chicago probably has the best pitching staff as well with Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks and newly acquired Japanese hurler Shoto Imanaga leading the way. The projected No.4 and No.5, Jordan Wicks and Javier Assad, could be solid.

Dislike: They could be good. They should be good. But, this is the Cubs and they’ve underachieved many times in the past. I would also argue that the acquisition of former Brewers manager Craig Counsell is not necessarily the answer. Counsell is too much of an analytics guy for my liking, and though he did a good job getting the Brewers to five playoff appearances in his nine seasons as the skipper, they only reached the NLCS once. “Only” might be a bit harsh, but he’s been known to overmanage, and that has cost his team on more than one occasion in big moments.

A final thought: If the Cubs fall short of winning the division, they could make the playoffs as a wild-card team. The NL Central could get two squads in the postseason. Anything lower than second place for Chicago will be a failure for a franchise that fell one game short of the third WC spot last year.

2nd: Cardinals

Like: The idea that it’s highly unlikely a franchise such as the Cardinals finishes in last place with 71 wins again in 2024. If they do repeat as the bottom feeders of the NL Central, then there will be major changes coming next year. However, given that their top veterans, Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, are coming off unproductive seasons by their usual standards, I figure bouncebacks are on the way for both.

Keep an eye on the talented youngsters. 23-year-old second baseman Nolan Gorman and 21-year-old outfielder Jordan Walker. Both showed flashes in ‘23 of what the future could hold in St. Louis for years to come.

Dislike: New additions to the starting staff. Sonny Gray is already on the injured list with a hamstring issue. Gray finished second for the AL Cy Young award last season with Minnesota. If the hammy problem lingers all year, then the pitching is in trouble. The addition of the always-unpredictable Lance Lynn cannot possibly excite Cardinals fans (13-11, 5.73 ERA in ‘23). Kyle Gibson also signed in the offseason after winning 15 games with Baltimore, albeit with an undesirable 4.73 ERA.

A final thought: 2023 was the first season the Redbirds finished under .500 since 2007. It’s a rarity and though it seems as if they should be better than last year, I’m not completely sold on it. It’s plausible that St. Louis finishes with more losses than victories for a second straight campaign.

3rd: Brewers

Like: The idea that history says Milwaukee won’t finish below second place. Other than the 2020 COVID-shortened campaign when the Brewers finished fourth in the division, this franchise has been in the Top 2 in the NL Central every year since 2017.

Dislike: The big losses to their pitching. Not only was one of their aces Corbin Burnes traded in the offseason to Baltimore, but they also lost their other ace Brandon Woodruff to season-ending shoulder surgery. Freddy Peralta will be asked to lead the rotation, and though he is a solid hurler, that’s a lot to overcome for the Brew Crew. Another huge story was the injury to closer Devin Williams, the 2023 NL Reliever of the Year winner. Williams suffered stress fractures in his back and isn’t expected to return until the second half at the earliest.

A final thought: There is a part of me that wants to knock Milwaukee even further down this list and move the team I have in fourth place (see below) ahead of them. But, in a similar way many view the Tampa Bay Rays, there is something about the style in which the Brewers operate every season that still gives many fans hope that they will be competitive regardless of the major setbacks. I don’t think this team will finish any higher than third, but could certainly end up in last if the Reds and Pirates build off their improvements from 2023.

4th: Reds

Like: The lineup when healthy. For me, the most painful aspect of making preseason picks in modern-day baseball is that there are so many unforeseen injuries to young players. It’s sad to witness and makes predicting anything before a season begins nearly impossible. It used to be that every franchise had to deal with, at most, maybe one or two serious injuries on average to important players. Now one or two per month seems about right. I bring this up because that is the case with the young and talented, but already injury-riddled Reds squad in ‘24.

22-year-old Noelvi Marte was suspended for PED use for half the season. That’s a big loss, but the wrist fracture to center fielder TJ Friedl, which will keep him out for a while, and the mystery shoulder issues for 2023 NL Rookie of the Year candidate Matt McLain are unsettling. Perhaps, I should have put this in the ‘Dislike’ section below, but if the lineup minus Marte is intact for the majority of the season, then putting runs on the board shouldn’t be a problem for Cincy. This should be their strength.

Dislike: The rotation when unhealthy. The offense is already hurting and the pitching staff has a long history of injury-prone players including third-year hurlers Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene. Projected Opening Day starter Frankie Montas tossed 1.1 innings last season with the Yankees before shoulder surgery ended his campaign.

A final thought: The Reds represent the most glaring issue with MLB right now. Health with its players. This is a team that won 82 contests last year and showed flashes of how good they could be in 2024. Unfortunately, at the start of every campaign nowadays the hopes and excitement of a new season for many fan bases are ruined by their team’s top players landing on the injured list before official games even begin; and often for unforeseen reasons. Cincinnati could easily win this division if the bats and arms stay on the field, but they won’t. It’s inevitable. Therefore, I’m predicting disappointing times in Ohio and fewer than 82 victories.

5th: Pirates

Like: The back end of the bullpen with David Bednar and Aroldis Chapman. Bednar led the NL in saves last season with 39 and posted a 2.00 ERA. Fresh off a World Series title with the Rangers, Chapman provides experience as a setup man, and despite no longer being in the closer role, he is still one of the best strikeout relievers in the league. In 58.1 innings pitched last season, the Cuban Missile fanned 103 batters.

Dislike: The hype around Oneil Cruz’s hard-hit balls. It all began with this off-the-wall single at PNC Park in 2022.

Since that time, MLB has been raving about Cruz’s hard-hit percentages and all that other analytical stuff that bores most fans, especially if it’s not paired with good production. That is the problem. Cruz is like the guy who can win the NBA Slam Dunk Contest every year with extraordinary physical ability, but in the actual games, he comes off the bench and averages three points per contest.

A final thought: I’m not saying that Cruz doesn’t have talent. I’m not saying that he didn’t have an unlucky injury in early April of last season. But, I am saying that we keep hearing about how hard this shortstop hits the ball, and yet through 98 career games, he’s a .237 hitter with a K-to-BB ratio of 138:35. This is Oneil’s age-25 season and he’s best known for hitting the ball hard and having a crappy batting average. If this is the best Pittsburgh has to offer, then a bottom-two finish in the NL Central for a seventh consecutive season seems likely.

NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST

My 2023 predictions

1st: Padres (Dodgers)

2nd: Dodgers (Diamondbacks)

3rd: Diamondbacks (Padres)

4th: Giants

5th: Rockies

2024 PREDICTIONS

1st: Dodgers

Like: A lineup starting with three players who finished in the Top 3 in their respective leagues in MVP voting the prior season. Any squad with Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and newly acquired Shohei Ohtani at the top of their batting order would still possibly be a playoff contender regardless of who is hitting behind them. I’ll put my money on that trio to keep the Dodgers in the hunt without even mentioning the rest of their experienced and talented offensive group.

I still like rookie hurler Yoshinobu Yamamoto despite his lousy first game in Seoul (1 IP, 5 ER). Let’s give him about a month and then we’ll see where the Japanese phenom ranks among MLB starting pitchers.

Dislike: If there’s one area on this Dodgers team that worries me, it’s the starting rotation. I’m going to assume that by the end of the season, Yamamoto’s stats are good. Maybe not as great as some predict, but good enough to be All-Star level. I don’t know what to expect from one of the team’s other big-name pickups Tyler Glasnow. Talented? Yes. An innings eater? No. Glasnow tossed 120 innings for Tampa Bay last year and that was the most he’s ever thrown in a season over a nine-year career.

If Tyler is the Dodgers second best option with pitchers such as Walker Buehler (coming off a second Tommy John surgery and on an innings limit when he returns) and Clayton Kershaw (shoulder surgery, might return at the end of the season), then the younger arms like Bobby Miller are going to have to help carry the load.

A final thought: The Dodgers are going to the playoffs even if their pitching isn’t great during the regular season. The issue could come in a postseason series once again. There’s more pressure on Los Angeles to win in October than on any other franchise in baseball given their offseason spending. I’m not sure if the current rotation as it stands will keep enough runs off the board when it matters most, but as far as the NL West is concerned, they should claim it for a third straight year even if some crazy suspension was handed down to Ohtani for the wire transfer scandal. That remains to be seen.

2nd: Diamondbacks

Like: As I’m writing this, southpaw Jordan Montgomery was signed by the D-backs for a one-year, $25 million deal. I like Montgomery, and he was certainly an integral part of the Rangers postseason success in ‘23. Is a pitcher coming off a career-best 10-11 campaign with a 3.20 ERA worth that much money? Not to me, but for the Diamondbacks, who are already missing recently acquired Eduardo Rodriguez for the beginning of the campaign due to a lat strain, I think it was a nice addition. With the two pitching additions mentioned above added to a rotation with Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, this is the deepest staff in the NL West.

23-year-old phenom Corbin Carroll leading off at the top of the order is about as good as it gets. Arizona’s offense has some holes, but it’s good enough to hang with most teams in the National League.

Dislike: Closer Paul Sewald is heading to the IL with a left oblique strain. I’m not sold on Arizona’s pen even with a healthy Sewald, but for the most part, it did a fantastic job in last year’s postseason run to the World Series. Can they repeat that over a six-month period?

A final thought: It won’t be easy, but if everything clicks for The Snakes, the NL West race with the Dodgers will be tighter than most project. Remember, last season the D-backs and The Blue Crew were tied atop the division at the All-Star break. Even though Los Angeles ran away with it in the second half, Arizona dominated them in the NLDS. This team is legit.

3rd: Giants

Like: The Giants spending some money to improve the offense and rotation.

With the addition of reigning NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell to a rotation led by last year’s runner-up for the award, Logan Webb, potentially, this could be the most productive starting duo in baseball. There are some talented young pitchers behind the Top 2 as well. The bullpen with closer Camilo Doval and the Rogers brothers (Taylor and Tyler) is solid.

San Francisco has some hope on the offensive side thanks to the additions of power-hitting outfielder Jorge Soler, defensive wizz at the hot corner Matt Chapman, and KBO star, rookie Jung Hoo Lee.

Dislike: The question marks with the offense. Will Lee provide numbers in the leadoff spot comparable to his KBO stats that saw him hit well over .300 each season? Can Chapman get back to the 25 or more homer campaigns he’s produced in the past? It’s the uncertainty with the offensive production that could prove worrisome over a full campaign.

A final thought: Best case scenario…The pitching is stellar and the bats show up and lead the Giants to an NL West crown. Worst case scenario…A fourth-place finish in the division and all that money spent on offseason acquisitions fail to pan out. Saying all that, I like this squad today and could easily see San Fran finishing second in the division and snagging a wild-card spot.

4th: Padres

Like: The pressure to win is far less than it was in 2023 with Juan Soto on the squad. With Soto gone, maybe San Diego can get back to the team that won 89 games two seasons ago. If Jake Cronenworth and Fernando Tatis Jr. produce to their capabilities, then the Padres will likely be better than last year’s disappointing 82-80 team.

The addition of 2022 AL Cy Young runner-up Dylan Cease to an experienced rotation led by Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove could make a formidable trio.

Dislike: It’s difficult to believe that the Padres are a better team without Soto. The lower half of the lineup isn’t strong.

A final thought: San Diego might hang around in the first half. However, unlike the three teams ranked above them, I don’t have the same confidence in a best-case scenario situation that this squad can compete for the division. Maybe a wild card at best.

5th: Rockies

Like: This was the easiest and certainly the only ‘gimme’ pick out of all 15 National League franchises. I am 100% certain that the Rockies finish in last place and being that this is the final team I’m writing about, it’s kind of a relief to know that I can’t get this one wrong…Hopefully.

Dislike: There’s nothing positive to build off in Colorado. Players don’t want to spend their entire careers in Denver as former Rockies first baseman and Hall of Famer Todd Helton did. I’ve said it many times in this blog. It’s the only location in MLB that’s not good for hitters or pitchers. If a hitter’s home park is called Coors Field, they are instantly knocked down a level in the minds of many because of the thin air and often inflated statistics. If you’re a pitcher, just keeping your ERA under five is a challenge; with four being a miracle.

A fascinating but ugly tidbit from Rockies pitching in 2023—Of the eight players to make 10 or more starts, Kyle Freeland’s 5.03 ERA was the best. Like I said, there’s nothing to like here.

A final thought: This might be the best overall division in MLB from teams 1-4 (TBD), but because the Rockies are the fifth squad, it’s hard to rank the NL West as #1.

That wraps up the National League Predictions for 2024. Next up will be the playoff picks. As you might remember from last year, and can likely figure out based on my lowly AL and NL guesses from that season, my playoff predictions were way off the mark as well. Stay tuned for those.

Opening Day is coming! Talk soon. Thanks for reading.

Share

Subscribe now

For about a week now, I’ve been trying to think of a good way to summarize my 2023 predictions. In the end, nothing positive came of it. Simply put…at best, they were crap.

As you’ll see by each division below, there is a strikethrough on any team that didn’t finish in the predicted order I believed they would. I haven’t been in school for 20 years, but I’m assuming an F is still the worst grade a teacher can give. Is there anything below an F? If so, that would be my score for AL predictions last year. My pick average was .200 after correctly placing three teams out of 15 in the proper order in which they finished in the standings.

My goal this year was for less analysis and overthinking. The key is to not make the same mistakes again. The problem is that I don’t really understand what those errors were and, therefore, more likely than not, will repeat them once again in 2024. Let’s try this once more.

AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST

My 2023 predictions *The incorrect team has a strikethrough with the actual squad that finished in that position listed to its right. Bold indicates that I correctly predicted the proper place for that team.

1st: Blue Jays (Orioles)

2nd: Yankees (Rays)

3rd: Orioles (Blue Jays)

4th: Rays (Yankees)

5th: Red Sox

2024 PREDICTIONS

1st: Blue Jays

Like: I just said earlier -the key is to not make the same mistakes again- and if that means not picking a team to win a division after incorrectly doing so in the prior season, then I’m already in trouble. But, I can’t help myself here. I like the Jays starting rotation more than any other by far in this division. With key staff injuries already to each of the other four teams in the AL East, this rotation, led by last year’s AL strikeout leader Kevin Gausman, should be good enough to carry Toronto to the top.

Dislike: The aura in Canada. It could have been great if Shohei Ohtani was actually on that plane in early December headed for Toronto. But, he wasn’t and instead signed with the Dodgers. On paper, the lineup is decent, but the struggles of Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette in three October appearances are concerning. I don’t know if they’re going to be big game players at some point in their careers, but both will need to step it up a notch when it matters to reach that “Star” label they’ve had for a few years now.

A final thought: If Toronto is to win the AL East in ‘24, they will have to improve considerably on their record versus division opponents. The Jays ranked last in the East with a 21-31 mark.

2nd: Orioles

Like: A youthful and talented lineup with good starting pitching. Regardless of losing SP Kyle Bradish (12-7, 2.83 ERA in ‘23) for at least a month to a UCL sprain in his throwing arm, they added former Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes to lead the rotation in ‘24.

Dislike: All the hype and talk about 20-year-old Jackson Holliday earning a spot on the big league club to begin the season went down the drain when he was optioned to Triple-A a few days ago for the start of the new campaign. He didn’t do anything wrong. His spring numbers were good enough to make the team, but according to baseball operations executive Mike Elias, he isn’t ready to face good left-handed pitching and also needs more defensive reps at second base. Whatever the reasons, a lot of the early season anticipation that Orioles fans had for Opening Day is now gone after being told by Elias earlier in the offseason that baseball’s top prospect had a “very strong possibility” of breaking camp with the big league club.

A final thought: Can the O’s live up to the high expectations they created last season by winning the division a year or two earlier than most expected? If they fall back a bit and don’t win 101 games again, but still make the playoffs, then all should be good in Baltimore.

3rd: Yankees

Like: The addition of Juan Soto with a hopefully “healthy” Aaron Judge forms a dynamic duo.  If Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton can turn back the clock six years, then this is a formidable lineup. If not, then…

Dislike: Rizzo and Stanton. What are the Yankees going to get? It’s almost a forgone conclusion every season that Stanton and Rizzo will end up on the IL at some point. Add the loss of reigning AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole for at least a month due to right elbow nerve inflation and we’re looking at a team that has no chance to win the division if not fully healthy.

A final thought: If Cole is back in May and “the other guys” named Carlos Rodon and ‘Nasty’ Nestor Cortes can stay off the IL, then maybe this is a playoff team. But, even with a full year of Judge, this feels like an “everything must go right” situation for New York to have a chance at October baseball. The wiggle room for anything less isn’t there.

4th: Rays

Like: Right where I predicted them last year and, of course, Tampa being Tampa, nearly won the division with 99 wins. Even though I am picking against the Rays for a second time, they always do more with less than any other team in recent baseball memory. Unlike Toronto, this team has an aura of winning about them that is highly respectable.

Dislike: Starting options after Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale. I don’t know where they are going to find enough innings in the rotation to keep the bullpen from getting overused and completely wiped out by August. However, this is the Rays and maybe they will once again find a way.

A final thought: Health isn’t key because they win when unhealthy every year. The key is using whatever pieces they have on the field and playing the Tampa Bay way (which despite being cliche, is fair to use when talking about this franchise).  What else is there to say? My best guess is because I am picking against the Rays, they will probably do far better than they should and make the playoffs once again.

5th: Red Sox

Like: It’s the one correct pick I had in this division in ‘23. Since it worked last year, I’ll go with it again this time around. I do like Rafael Devers anchoring the lineup. I do like leadoff hitter Jarren Duran’s potential after batting .295 with 24 stolen bases in 334 at-bats last year, BUT…

Dislike: I don’t like much else. Trevor Story needs to get back to his Coors Field days in Colorado. If he comes close to his pre-Boston production, then that will help, but not enough to salvage the season for the Sox.

The rotation is not very good with or without Lucas Giolito.  Why people thought the loss of Giolito was a big deal is kinda funny considering his near 5.00 ERA over the previous two seasons.  What was he going to do in a hitter-friendly park like Fenway?

A final thought: This Boston squad doesn’t look much better than the ‘23 version.  The key is to win as many games outside of the AL East as possible and hope to hang around until the dog days of summer. 

AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL

My 2023 predictions

1st: Guardians (Twins)

2nd: White Sox (Tigers)

3rd: Twins (Guardians)

4th: Royals (White Sox)

5th: Tigers (Royals)

2024 PREDICTIONS

1st: Guardians

Like: Let’s make it 2-for-2 on picking the same incorrect division winner from a year ago. I thought this team was good enough to win the AL Central last season and instead, they finished 11 games back in third place. In 2024, I still believe they are good enough to win the division. Here’s why.

Second-year pitchers Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen are quality options behind No. 1 Shane Bieber, who needs to get back to his dominant self from a few years ago.  Emmanuel Clase has been one of the best closers in the game over the last few years and the bullpen should be solid.

The top of the batting order with Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, and Andres Gimenez could be better, but it could be a lot worse. In this division, it will do. All four of the aforementioned players are solid hitters and three of them are threats on the basepaths. It would be an even better lineup if the rest of it was solid as well, but…

Dislike: It seems like Cleveland never signs a big free-agent bat in the offseason.  Someone who can be an instant game-changer and hit behind Jose Ramirez would go a long way in improving the team’s offensive potential.  Recently, this franchise feels like it’s always one hitter away from not just being good enough to win the AL Central but becoming a true World Series contender as well. It’s the same situation this year.

A final thought: Good enough to win the AL Central, but not a scary team come playoff time unless a big piece or two are added at some point to the lineup during the season.

2nd: Twins

Like: Pablo Lopez as the ace.  (11-8, 3.66 ERA, 234 K in 194 innings). 

Dislike: The rotation after Lopez.  Joe Ryan can be good, Bailey Ober can be good, and maybe the rest of them can be good. But, will they be in 2024?

Let me be clear about the offense. I do not believe at all in outfielder Byron Buxton.  His name being mentioned as some sort of superstar in the making is tiring now.  All the hype and very little to show for it in nine seasons in Minnesota.  If he remains on the field for more than 100 games for the first time since 2017 then we’ll revisit Buxton’s value. Until then, he’s useless and will likely have little impact on how the Twins do in the division.

A final thought: The Twins won this division easily in 2023 without Buxton and the young ‘Grand Slam King’ Royce Lewis for most of the campaign.  Minnesota has as good a chance as any team in the AL Central to finish at the top again with or without two of its biggest names mentioned in the previous sentence.  Have I touched upon my thoughts about Buxton yet?

3rd: Tigers

Like: On paper, this is a difficult squad to figure out, but many expect they will be good and possibly compete for a division crown. They finished second last year despite only winning 78 contests.

It all starts with their young hitters Spencer Torkelson (24), Riley Greene (23), Kerry Carpenter (26) and Parker Meadows (24).  They are all talented and easy to root for, but how good this young crop can potentially be has to start showing on the field this year.  Each of these players has a lot to prove.

Dislike: Pitching as a whole. If starting hurler Tarik Skubal is as good as many believe and is the intended future ace of this staff, then the southpaw will have to toss more than the 80.1 innings he managed in 2023.  It’s hard to trust the guys behind him like Kenta Maeda and the oft-injured Jack Flaherty.

A final thought: There is very little I like about this team until the young guys prove themselves.  The roster looks mediocre on paper, which in this case, might be good enough to win the worst division in baseball, but I’ll stick with a middle-of-the-pack finish.

4th: Royals

Like: Right where I had them last year despite their record of 56-106 being far worse than envisioned. Surely it will improve in ‘24. If it does, the key reason will be shortstop Bobby Witt Jr.  I have very little doubt that Kansas City made the right move by signing this 23-year-old to an 11-year deal in hopes of him being the current and future star of the franchise. 

Dislike: Bullpen.  Look at these names and you’ll see why.  It’s a far cry from the 2015 World Series team with Greg Holland and Wade Davis lurking at the back end.

A final thought: Maybe the additions of Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha make the rotation a bit more respectable than last year, but I must see it to believe it.  If not, then there’s little reason to believe the Royals are better than a third-place team. 

5th: White Sox

Like: Luis Robert Jr. finally stayed healthy for the first time in his four-year career in ‘23. He only hit .264 but had 38 homers, 36 doubles and 20 stolen bases in 145 games. Now that Robert has proven he can play nearly a full season, can the best player on the White Sox take it to the next level? The MVP kind of level?

Dislike: Yoan Moncada.  The infielder has never lived up to the hype of the five-year/$70 million Chicago gifted him and thankfully for the sake of the Sox, there is a $5 million buyout option on his contract after this season.  Moncada is rarely healthy and strikes out three times as often as he draws a walk. With 907 career strikeouts to just 301 walks, we’re looking at the second coming of Javier Baez. At least Baez had one good year in 2018 when he finished second for the NL MVP.

Oh yeah. I almost forgot. The South Siders might have the worst pitching staff in baseball and certainly in the AL Central. 

A final thought: Saying that the key to the White Sox season is health would be wrong. Health is too simple a word to use here because even if everyone on this team stays on the field for the entire season, they won’t compete for a division crown with their current pitching staff. Picking this team to make the playoffs last year was a mistake. A mistake I don’t intend to repeat for a very long time. My confidence is high that this is right where the Sox belong.

AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST

My 2023 predictions

1st: Astros

2nd: Mariners (Rangers)

3rd: Angels (Mariners)

4th: Rangers (Angels)

5th: Athletics

2024 PREDICTIONS

1st: Astros

Like: Until they lose the AL West or show signs that they are due to surrender it, then I am not changing my pick over a grueling 162-game season.

There are only two teams in MLB that I am high on in all three departments. The other we’ll get to in the National League predictions. The veterans in both the lineup, starting pitching staff and bullpen do not cause much concern.  It’s hard to nitpick with a team that has won this division six times in the last seven years.

Dislike:  Is Yordan Alvarez really going to be hitting second all season?  What are managers thinking these days by putting the best slugger they have in the two-hole? It’s happening far too often around MLB. With Houston specifically, I have one question. Why mess with the usual order atop a veteran lineup that has been this dominant for so long? The good news is that new manager Joe Espada can change it anytime he wants.

A final thought: There’s a great chance this franchise wins the AL West again. Even with a few early-season injuries and popular manager Dusty Baker now retired, it’s difficult to envision the ‘Stros being anything worse than the top wild-card team. I am not confident in saying that about any other American League squad.

2nd: Rangers

Like: They tied the Astros atop the division with 90 wins last year and in 2024 the additions of rookies Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter for a full season make this the scariest AL lineup for my money.  There’s not a weak spot anywhere and this team will be going up against the putrid Angels and Athletics pitching staffs 26 times combined.  That’s very nice for them.

Dislike: The starting rotation.  Nathan Eovaldi was fantastic in last year’s postseason, but so was Jordan Montgomery, who is still hanging around in free agency.  If Montgomery were to miraculously re-sign with Texas, then that would help this staff immensely and might even tempt me to pick this team to dethrone Houston for the division.  But, back to reality, that’s not likely going to happen and as it stands right now, there’s not much to get excited about after Nate.  Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney, Dane Dunning…We get it. They are all average to slightly above-average major league pitchers.  Is that good enough to win the AL West?

A final thought: Even if veteran hurler Max Scherzer comes back for a healthy second half, I don’t think he’s good enough anymore to make a huge difference for Texas down the stretch.  The offense is great.  The pitching is not.  They’ll be good overall, but not great. 92 wins and a playoff berth feels about right. 

3rd: Mariners

Like: The starting rotation. This could potentially be the most durable 1-5 in MLB.  As long as I don’t have to hear George Kirby openly complain about going back out for another inning because his manager needs him to, then this will be a pitching staff to believe in.

Dislike: Something has been missing in the Mariners lineup for the last few seasons.  There’s a star named Julio Rodriguez.  Everyone knows that.  But, what else is there to fear? I don’t see anything that indicates this offense will be much of a threat over 162 games.  The lineup is kind of like Cleveland’s with their best hitter Jose Ramirez as the focal point and everyone else is decent.  Seattle’s offense is OK, but can it give the pitching staff enough run support to win 90 or more games?

A final thought:  Last year, I picked the M’s to finish second and they came close.  However, for this season, unless some very serious misfortunes happen to the current Astros and Rangers roster, it’s difficult to see a way the Mariners finish better than third or worse than third in the AL West.  They are a third-place kinda team in this division and much like last year should hang around in the wild card race.

4th: Angels

Like:  I like that Mike Trout is stuck in an awful situation, which in reality, he created.  Why I chose this team last year to finish ahead of the eventual World Series champs is a great question. Probably because I figured a healthy Shohei Ohtani, Trout and Anthony Rendon could make the AL West interesting. Nope.

Dislike: The idea that a healthy Trout and Rendon playing to their capabilities could put the Angels over the top.  We’ve heard this every year in the Trout era and it continues to this day. To the believers out there, it’s not happening. Neither of these guys has earned much of their ridiculous contracts. My belief in Mike and Anthony being the talents they once were left me long ago. They are two of the most overrated players by contract value in MLB history. 

A final thought:  Ohtani at least brought some excitement to the Halos last year and kept the team in the playoff race for a while.  But there’s nothing about this squad that should give Anaheim fans any hope of winning more than 73 games again.  If another Angel on a subpar team wins an MVP award, I’m going to vomit. If Trout wants his fourth Most Valuable Player, then carry this franchise to the playoffs instead of giving false hope to your faithful followers year after year.

5th: Athletics

Like: Hmmm…let me think about this for the next six months.

Dislike: That the A’s may lose more than 112 games in 2024.  Are they any better than 2023’s version of the Green and Gold? It’s close.

A final thought: If Oakland finishes ahead of the Angels, I will be very impressed and it will give me more ammo against Trout and Rendon next year.  If the A’s win 60 games and finish in last place, I will also be impressed. Honestly, I have no idea what would be considered unimpressive given the current state of this franchise.

Round 2 of the predictions continues on Wednesday with the National League. Surely, the above picks will hit at a better clip than last season’s .200 mark. Right? If not, comment below and let me know your thoughts on the predictions. I am very interested in what you think.

Talk soon. Thanks for reading.

Share

Subscribe now

MLB Update

Hey, everyone. It’s been a little while since my last post. Do not worry though as Impressed or Unimpressed will be continuing soon with Episode 5. I’ll share the schedule later.

Right now, I’m getting ready for Opening “Morning” when the Dodgers and Padres battle overseas in the first official game of the season at 6:05 AM ET. Will I be awake? Probably not. But, for the second game on Thursday, I may get up a little earlier to catch some of Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s first start in Dodger Blue against Padres right-hander Joe Musgrove. If I miss Game 2, then at least we have Opening Day for the rest of MLB on March 28.

Some notes before the update. There were more than a few relevant happenings in MLB over the past two weeks. I could write a few thousand words on everything from the Yankees losing their ace Gerrit Cole due to right elbow nerve inflation, to the Brewers getting news that they’ll be without one of the best closers in the game, Devin Williams, for at least half the season due to stress fractures in his back. By now, most of you reading this, probably already know about those injuries. If not, check the links.

Elsewhere, the Reds lost one of their good up-and-comers for 80 games after shortstop Noelvi Marte was suspended for PED use. When are these players going to learn? In 114 at-bats last season with the Reds, Marte hit .316 with three homers and 15 RBI. He was expected to have a big impact on a Cincinnati team hoping to build off their 82-win campaign in ‘23. Now, they’ll have to wait for their youngster to return at some point in the summer.

As far as moves and signings from the past week were concerned, two high-quality pitchers found new homes. The White Sox traded SP Dylan Cease to San Diego for four players; mostly prospects. Cease didn’t have a great season in ‘23 (7-9, 4.58 ERA), but in 2022 he won 14 games with a 2.20 ERA and 227 strikeouts over 184 innings. He certainly provides a boost to a Padres rotation that lost reigning NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell, which brings me to the second hurler who will be playing for a new club in ‘24.

The San Francisco Giants have had a busy offseason and on Monday they signed the former Padres ace to a two-year, $62 million deal with an opt-out.

It looks like agent Scott Boras got what he wanted once again by waiting for most of spring training to get his client signed. We’ve seen Boras do this before. It’s hard to believe that Snell is worth $31 million a year for the next two campaigns. If he matches his career-high 32 starts from last year with San Diego, then the total cost per Blake start on average will be about $1 million. We’ll see how this goes, but for a guy who has never thrown close to 200 innings in a season, I’m not sure why the Giants gave in on this one.

Yes, of course, Snell should immediately help San Fran’s pitching staff, but from a dollar-value standpoint, this seems like an extremely high contract for a player who has only had two healthy full seasons in eight years as a big leaguer. Remember, Cody Bellinger signed with the Cubs a while back, Matt Chapman agreed to a deal with the Giants and now welcomes Snell to the team, which leaves southpaw Jordan Montgomery as the one remaining unsigned player from the ‘Boras Four’ still available.

Baseball Fan Perspective Season Update

Here is the upcoming schedule and plan for the season:

Thursday, March 21: Seoul Series update.

Monday, March 25: American League predictions. Last year went horribly wrong for my preseason picks. I’ll give it another shot and see what happens in ‘24.

Tuesday, March 26: National League predictions.

Wednesday, March 27: Playoff predictions.

Friday, March 29: Recap from Thursday’s Opening Day contests. Always a great day. I don’t know about the rest of you, but I am ready for meaningful baseball to begin. Spring Training gets old after two weeks. Again, I’d prefer to sleep rather than rise early in the morning to watch any sporting event (Seoul Series included), but that itch that all of us baseball fans need to scratch around this time of year when real games begin might get me out of bed for most of this contest on Wednesday.

Monday, April 1: Impressed or Unimpressed Episode 5. A recap of the weekend happenings.

The plan for the regular season is to have two recurring articles per week.

1. Fridays - There will be a discussion about the games and other news from around MLB that occurred from Monday to Thursday. This will be titled something like ‘Friday Quickcap’.

2. Mondays - This is where Impressed or Unimpressed episodes will continue to shine. They will consist of stories from Friday to Sunday. All the worthy weekend action will be covered here.

   ---

Baseball is back. Though players are going down with injuries at a rate I’ve never seen in March, it should once again be a fascinating season ahead. I’m looking forward to interacting with all of you throughout the year. It won’t be on a daily ‘MLB Quickcap’ basis like last season, but sometimes less is more in the mind of the reader.

Last note. If you’re interested in reading about five hitters with their reputations on the line in 2024, then check out my most recent Yardbarker article here. There are some big names with a lot to prove this season.

I’ll be back on Thursday with the Seoul Series recap. Until then, set your alarms early, have the coffee brewing, tune into ESPN for Opening Morning, and then wake me up at its conclusion with a game recap. Thanks. Talk to you soon.

Share

Six divisions have been predicted over the past week. For full recaps, click on the underlined links below.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

AL EAST: Toronto Blue Jays

AL CENTRAL: Cleveland Guardians

AL WEST: Houston Astros

NATIONAL LEAGUE

NL EAST: Atlanta Braves

NL CENTRAL: St. Louis Cardinals

NL WEST: San Diego Padres

The Rest of the Playoff Field

AMERICAN LEAGUE WILD CARD TEAMS

-New York Yankees

-Chicago White Sox

-Seattle Mariners

NATIONAL LEAGUE WILD CARD TEAMS

-New York Mets

-Los Angeles Dodgers

-Milwaukee Brewers

AMERICAN LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES

Houston Astros over Toronto Blue Jays in six games

-Toronto will get out of the ALDS after being crowned the AL East Champ. Unfortunately for the Jays, they will run into an Astros team at full strength in the American League Championship Series, and their rotation and lineup depth will not be able to match Houston’s.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES

Atlanta Braves over St. Louis Cardinals in seven games

-The #1 seed Braves will have to battle their way past either the Mets or the Dodgers in the NLDS. That won’t be easy. The Cards will likely face their division rivals, the Milwaukee Brewers, and despite the Brew Crews’ ability to keep the games low-scoring, St. Louis advances thanks to the better bats. However, Atlanta finds a way to the World Series after a lengthy NLCS.

WORLD SERIES

Atlanta Braves over Houston Astros in seven games

-A 2021 World Series rematch featuring the top two teams from each league. This will be a dandy of a series and one filled with drama throughout. I’ll take the Braves whether at home or on the road in Game 7. Atlanta defeated Houston two years ago with lesser talent. I see no reason why they won’t again in ‘23.

That wraps up all of my 2023 predictions. I appreciate all of you keeping up with some lengthy articles. From here on out, I will be posting Daily Recaps, called QUICKCAPS. Each post will have a brief recap of each game with a few extra tidbits at the end.

Enjoy Opening Day!

Subscribe now

It’s been the Atlanta Braves finishing in first place for five consecutive seasons in this division and I don’t see that ending in 2023. Last year, the New York Mets had their opportunity, leading by 10 1/2 games at one point. The Braves stormed back in the second half, sweeping the Mets in the second to last series of the season, and ended up in a 101-win tie, sadly not decided by a ‘Game 163’, but that’s a topic for another day, and one which I covered in my New Rules thoughts last week. Anyway, in the end, Atlanta won the Head-to-Head battle, 10-9, and as a reward, they won their 17th NL East Title.

In the 2022 playoffs, however, the Fightin’ Phils were the franchise that few saw coming. Philadelphia was the last team to qualify for the postseason, and ended up in the World Series, even knocking off the Braves in four games during the NLDS. There are question marks with the Phillies’ health to start the year, and it really comes down to whether or not their boys can hang with the Mets and Braves for a full 162.

The Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals shouldn’t finish anywhere near the Top 3 in the standings, but it would make for an interesting story if one of them can do it.

2022 FINAL STANDINGS

PREDICTIONS

1st Place: Atlanta Braves

LIKES

• Lineup 1-9: Maybe the best lineup from top to bottom in all of baseball. If not, it’s close enough to consider this offense a juggernaut. If Ronald Acuna Jr. is fully back from his torn Achilles injury two years ago, and his sidekick, Ozzie Albies, with his foot, pinky, and shoulder issues can remain at second base for the season, then I’ll take this group at the plate over any in Major League Baseball.

CONCERNS

• Pitching: A healthy Braves staff is fine. They won the World Series two years ago with a rotation considered to be above league average, but not high-end. Their bullpen for the past few seasons has been very good. The issues might come with durability. Closer, Raisel Iglesias and 21-game winner, Kyle Wright, are both on the shelf to start 2023 with shoulder inflammation. The young fireballer, Spencer Strider, showed how dominant he could be last year, becoming the fastest player in MLB history to 200 strikeouts, but he wasn’t the same by October due to an oblique injury. I’m not worried about the staff right now, but if there’s going to be a weakness on this team, I predict it will come with the arms before the bats.

KEY PLAYER

Ozzie Albies: Acuna is the most talented player on the team, but Albies is the engine that keeps them going. His presence was missed in ‘22, and I think it’s incredible what the Braves have accomplished the past couple of seasons with two of their biggest names not on the field together for a majority of that time.

FINAL THOUGHTS

Atlanta has had to make a second-half comeback in each of the past two campaigns to catch the Mets. The Braves are due for a good start. If they get out in front in April and May and play as well as they have in the mid-summer heat of late, then this division will be won by seven or eight games.

2nd Place: New York Mets

LIKES

• Lineup with Starling Marte: If Marte can stay on the field for the entire year, and that usually never happens, then this lineup can hold its own with Atlanta’s. With Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, and Jeff McNeil batting behind Starling for a full six months, good things will most definitely happen. However, Marte has played over 150 games just one time in his 11-year career. He’ll be 35 in October and the last time he didn’t miss 35 games in a season was in 2019 when he played in 132 contests.

CONCERNS

• Bullpen without Edwin Diaz: Diaz is out for ‘23 with a ruptured patellar tendon in his right knee after his on-field celebration during the WBC Quarterfinals earlier this month. Edwin’s 2022 numbers were spectacular. In 61 innings pitched he had 118 strikeouts, a 1.31 ERA, and a 0.839 WHIP. Those are difficult, if not impossible, numbers to replace, but David Robertson, Adam Ottavino, and company should be able to hold their own for a while. The question is, come the ninth inning in a big late-season save situation, what walk-on tune from the pen will be playing now that Timmy Trumpet’s ‘Narco’ will be off the board?

KEY PLAYER

Pete Alonso: He's been healthy for all four seasons of his short career. He slugs with the best of them and if he was lost for any significant amount of time, the Metropolitans would be in trouble. Taking out the 60-game 2020 season, his year-to-year home run counts have been 53, 37, and 40. 130 homers and 345 RBIs in three full campaigns. Good luck replacing that.

FINAL THOUGHTS

Many people are confident that the Mets rotation will hold up. Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are all-time great pitchers. When they are out there, I expect that they will be good. Father time is a potential issue with this group. The ages of the projected rotation: Verlander (40), Scherzer (38), Carlos Carrasco (36), Kodai Senga (30), and David Peterson (27). They are all talented but need to stay healthy to win this division.

3rd Place: Philadelphia Phillies

LIKES

• Kyle Schwarber out of the Leadoff Spot:  Trea Turner has arrived and will be the everyday leadoff hitter for the Phils. He brings a .302 career batting average, and with the new pickoff rules, could steal 50 bags or more. Schwarber last season hit .218, with 46 homers and only 94 RBIs. I say “only 94” because 31 of them were solo shots.  First, I don’t understand why players with horrible batting averages lead off nowadays. Second, if Kyle is going to hit around his career average of .233, but crush 40 or more homers, then I want him up with men on base. If he goes deep, wouldn’t the team rather he drive in more than just himself?

CONCERNS

• Pitching after Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler: Taijuan Walker is the #3 man in this rotation. He’s thrown 150+ innings in each of the past two seasons. He’s a bit wishy-washy and you never know what you’re going to get from him each game. The projected #4 was Ranger Suarez. He is on the IL to start the year with a forearm issue. The #5 was supposed to be the 19-year-old future ace, Andrew Painter, but he has a UCL sprain in his pitching elbow and won’t be back anytime soon.

• Injuries to Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins: Harper will be back mid-season after having elbow surgery on his right arm. Rhys won’t be back in ‘23 after tearing his ACL in spring training. These are two huge bats missing for the Phils in the early part of the year. If the other guys in the lineup pick it up and do what they are capable of, such as Nick Castellanos, who had an off 2022 by his standards, then maybe they can withstand Harper’s absence for a while.

KEY PLAYER

Bryce Harper: If he’s healthy when he returns from the IL, and the Phils can stay around .500 until that time, then the playoffs may very well happen for this team. After his showing in last year’s postseason, he has proven himself to be a big-game player to the baseball world. He is the main reason Philadelphia fans should have some hope for another chance at a World Series run.

FINAL THOUGHTS

I have my doubts about this team. Their run to the World Series last season as the #6 seed in the National League was great but shocking. It was a similar surprise journey as that of the Atlanta Braves in their 2021 World Series pursuit after losing Acuna. The difference is that the Braves won the NL East that season and have continued to hold their reign in the division since. Philadelphia only won 87 games last year and I don’t think, even with the addition of Trea Turner, that they are any better than the ‘22 team given the current injury situations with their offense. They’ll be in the hunt for a playoff spot, but won’t last in the race for the East.

4th Place: Miami Marlins

LIKES

• Luis Arraez and Jean Segura additions: Arraez and Segura are contact hitters and neither strikes out often. Arraez won the AL Batting Title last year with a .316 average and struck out just 43 times in 144 games. Segura has only had one triple-digit SO stat line by his name over an 11-year career.

CONCERNS

• Lineup: Despite the additions of Arraez and Segura, the bats have issues. There’s very little power potential on the Marlins squad, as usual, and the 25-year-old Jazz Chisholm is always a health concern. Jazz is supposed to be the top player on this team, but after already having a stress fracture in his back and a torn meniscus, I don’t know how good he will be long-term. I’m not quite sure why there is hype around him. He was a .256 hitter in the Minors, and so far has a .243 average in 205 MLB contests.  Is he going to be one of those .250, maybe .270 max, kind of players with some power when healthy and at his best?

• Pitching after Sandy Alcantara: Alcantara is the reigning CY Young in the National League, and for good reason. He led the Majors with 228 2/3 innings pitched, and six complete games. Sandy isn’t the issue. It’s everything else after him. The loss of Pablo Lopez via trade with the Minnesota Twins in the offseason, which brought Arraez to Miami, is tough to justify considering the current rotation. Does Arraez mean more than 69 wins for this team in ‘22? Perhaps the Marlins are banking on the younger arms of Taylor Rogers and Jesus Luzardo to take the next step toward their potential.

KEY PLAYER

Sandy Alcantara: I’ve already discussed some of his numbers from ‘22. Here are a few more: ERA-2.28, WHIP-0.980, SO-207. He’s in the prime of his career at 27 years old. He has 47 Quality Starts over the past two seasons, and could easily win a few CY Young Awards before it’s over.

FINAL THOUGHTS

It’s nice having an ace like Alcantara every fifth game, but in the end, this team is a fourth-place finisher because of their lack of depth. Even a banged-up Phillies team, should finish higher in the standings than The Fish.

5th Place: Washington Nationals

LIKES

• Youth: At the very least, it will be interesting to see if a few of the new players coming up for the Nats are going to be good. This team has completely dismantled everything from the 2019 World Series squad. In fact, after Juan Soto’s departure last season, there are no players left from that year’s everyday lineup. 30-year-old Joey Meneses was a rookie in ‘22 and finally got his chance in The Show. He didn’t disappoint, hitting .324 with 13 homers in 222 plate appearances. What’s crazy is that he is the oldest player in the Opening Day lineup in 2023. Has there ever been a second-year player with those honors in the history of the game?

CONCERNS

• Lost Talent in exchange Youth: The Nats have said goodbye to a lot of great players since 2018. I don’t take the word “Great” for granted. It’s an overused term in sports. Great is now often substituted for something that is actually good. So when I say they’ve lost “Great” players, I mean it. Max Scherzer and Bryce Harper are both likely going to the Hall-of-Fame someday. Trea Turner, still only in his 20s, is on a trajectory that will at least keep him on the ballot each year I would guess. It’s still early for Juan Soto, but I feel comfortable in saying that when it’s all said and done he will be a Hall-of-Famer. Finally, Anthony Rendon, if you go by his 2019 numbers with the Nats, he had a great season. The hope that all of these young “up-and-coming” players can replace those names, is difficult to see right now.

• Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg:  Corbin was the third starter behind Scherzer and Strasburg during their 2019 Championship season.   One of them doesn't play anymore, Strasburg; only eight starts in three years.  Another one, Corbin, was having a nice career up until 2020. In 2019 he was 14-7 with a 3.25 ERA. He also struck out 238 batters in 202 innings of work. Since that season, he is 17-42 with an ERA in 2023 that I needed to count with two hands (6.31).  The two arms are making a combined 58 million dollars this season and for what in return?

KEY PLAYER

Keibert Ruiz and Riley Adams: I’m going with two players, both catchers, who will have to call the game when Corbin is on the bump. They are likely going back and forth from home plate to the mound at a frequent rate. Hopefully, by June this process won’t wear them down and cause an injury. Maybe the two young backstops can figure out a way for Patrick to adjust to something close to what he once was.

FINAL THOUGHTS

It would be a huge win for the Nats if they finished in fourth place. They only won 55 games last season. I don’t think they will stay close to the Marlins in the standings, but sometimes teams with young talent and no pressure on them can surprise.

That’s it for the Division-by-Division Predictions. Now that my roster studies are over, and division winners made, it’s time to head to the Playoffs for my final 2023 predictions. Stay tuned.

Subscribe now

The Cardinals, Brewers, and Cubs have battled hard for division supremacy since 2017, each winning the NL Central twice. St. Louis is the defending champ, winning it by seven games last year over the Brewers. Milwaukee won 86 contests and missed the playoffs by one game in the standings.

The real question I have this year is about the overall quality of the five teams getting set to take off on opening day. Will more than one of these franchises make the postseason in 2023 or not?

Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are the two squads that I see battling it out once again for fourth place. Last season they both had 100 losses. Perhaps a few more wins come for each in ‘23, but it won’t be near enough to compete for anything more than a third-place finish with the Cubs.

It’s the Brewers versus the Cards once again for the top spot. In the end, I like the Redbirds to repeat.

2022 FINAL STANDINGS

PREDICTIONS

1st Place: St. Louis Cardinals

LIKES

• The Pitching Staff and Adam Wainwright: Adam Wainwright has won 195 games with the Cardinals, and has a career 3.38 ERA with four top-five finishes for the CY Young Award. He’s been a Cardinal since his first big league game in 2005 and is beloved in St. Louis.  Between last season’s farewell tours for two other Missouri legends, Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina, and now Wainwright in 2023, St. Louis fans have had a lot to look forward to recently. The rest of the rotation could be good if Jack Flaherty can pitch as he did in 2019. It sounds like he’s healthy and ready to go. The eighth and ninth-inning arms out of the bullpen, Giovanny Gallegos and Ryan Helsley, should be one of the better late-game duos in the league.

• Bats: Jordan Walker, a 20-year-old rookie, who made the team out of camp has never played Triple-A ball. If St. Louis is that confident in someone his age to start him in left field on opening day without playing at the highest level of the Minors, then I can’t argue with that. The Cardinals also added Willson Contreras to replace Molina behind the plate. The former Chicago Cubs backstop brings a solid bat with some power; usually good for 20 homers or more. Then there is everyone from reigning NL MVP, Paul Goldschmidt, to 10-time gold glove winner Nolan Arenado. This is one of the most well-round lineups in the Majors and scoring runs won’t be a problem.

CONCERNS

• Pitching, maybe?: Considering the current mediocre level of talent in this division compared to some of the others around the league, the Cardinals match up well in most areas with every team in this division. The rotation and bullpen depth may become an issue, which is why I bring up the next topic….

KEY PLAYER

Jack Flaherty: The Cards need to get Jack Flaherty back to the promising pitcher he was becoming before injuries took over for the last few seasons. If he is back and fully healthy for the entire campaign, then his arm will be huge come playoff time. 

FINAL THOUGHTS

I don’t think it will happen, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this team wins this division by double digits. My thought is something along the lines of last season; seven or eight games over the Brewers.

2nd Place: Milwaukee Brewers

LIKES

• Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta Trio: If Freddy Peralta can actually stay on the field and help the two aces, Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, carry the staff, then this team can make the playoffs. It could be much worse (and is for many other teams in MLB) than to have Eric Lauer and Wade Miley rounding out the rotation in the fourth and fifth slots.

• Closer, Devin Williams: Josh Hader was the main man in the Brewers pen from 2018 to 2021. He dominated for most of his time as the team’s closer, except for some hiccups in the summer of ‘22. He was later traded to the Padres at the deadline and then the ball was officially handed over to Devin Williams in the ninth inning. Williams has thrown just over 155 innings in his career and has 250 strikeouts. His 2.03 ERA isn’t bad either.

CONCERNS

• Christian Yelich: Where has the '18/'19 Christian Yelich run off to? Over the last three seasons, he has 35 homers combined. In 2019, he had 44 blasts and was one of the young stars of the game. Get him back to where he was and this team might win the division. If not, then mediocrity will only get you so far.

KEY PLAYER

• Corbin Burnes: One question for Brewers fans. Does Corbin Burnes stay in Milwaukee for the entire season after his arbitration mess in February? He was seeking a 10.75 million dollar deal for ‘23 but instead got a 10.01 mil payment.  He was not happy with that, and rumors have been swirling that he might be traded at some point. I think that would only happen if the Brew Crew falls out of playoff contention. He has been one of the top starting pitchers in baseball for the past two years. He won the CY Young Award in '21. He needs to not only stay in town but be mentally in the right place as well if this team wants any chance at beating St. Louis.

FINAL THOUGHTS

This is going to be a competitive team, but I’m not quite sure if I am comfortable putting them in my top six in the NL, which would guarantee them a playoff spot. It’s close. Check out my playoff predictions before the first game on opening day to find out.

3rd Place: Chicago Cubs

LIKES

• Lineup age:  The majority of this team is in their mid to late 20s.  I don't know if the addition of shortstop, Dansby Swanson, from the Atlanta Braves will help them win many more games than the 74 they had last year, but he does add some pop (back-to-back 25+ homer seasons) and has some always-important big-game experience.

CONCERNS

• Cody Bellinger: In 2019, Cody was the NL MVP. He hit .305, with 47 homers, and drove in 115 runs. He had a good year, but when you break down that season, it was really just about an all-time great run for the first two months that won the award. He hit .416 with 10 homers and 29 RBIs in April.  He also had a nice May (.319, 6 HR, 15 RBIs).  The rest of the year was solid, but not great. Since 2019 ended, he hasn’t been great or solid. But rather about as lost at the plate as a player of his caliber can be. From 2020-22 he has an average of .239, .165, and .210, respectively. I’d like to say that he and Yelich (the NL MVP runner-up in ‘19) have gone down this same bizarre road into nothingness, but in truth, Yelich has at least shown some signs of bouncing back here and there. As for Bellinger, I could argue that he hasn’t had a good month in the Majors for the past three seasons. A star? I don’t think so. Maybe changing teams will help.

KEY PLAYER

Kyle Hendricks: A capsular tear in the throwing shoulder will keep Hendricks out until May.  He's been the most consistent pitcher for the Cubs over his nine-year career.  Chicago needs him back, healthy, and as good as he was in 2016 when he led the NL with a 2.13 ERA.

FINAL THOUGHTS

Perhaps next season this team moves up the division ladder, but right now I think they are stuck in the middle until further notice. The offense will be OK. I’m probably being too nice in saying the following, but I think that the overall pitching will be OK. Therefore, the Cubs will be OK. Good enough for third place.

4th Place: Pittsburgh Pirates

LIKES

• A Solid Mix of Vets and Young Players in the Lineup: Andrew McCutchen returns to the place where it all started. He was one of the best players in baseball for a short period between 2011 and 2015. He won an MVP in 2013 after leading the Pirates to their first playoff berth in 20 years. Andrew returns to a franchise that looks to be on its way to another double-digit long playoff drought; already seven years and counting. Make no mistake that he and longtime veteran, Carlos Santana were brought here for one reason-Leadership. Show the young kids how to play the game the right way by example. I don’t expect peak Cutch and peak Santana to suddenly show up and carry this team to the next level, but their presence should be valuable to the building process in Pittsburgh.

CONCERNS

• Bryan Reynolds: He didn’t get his way in his offseason negotiations with the Pirates’ front office. Reynolds wanted to be extended, but in the end, was not happy with the offer and then made it known to the Bucs that a trade would be best. Now he claims he doesn’t want to be traded. Who knows? I believe anytime a player is unhappy with a team and wants a trade, then that usually means he will be gone before too long if the price is right for that particular franchise that owns the disgruntled player. This isn’t NBA veteran, Kyrie Irving, trade demand bad, but it might end up that way, especially if the team stinks and Bryan starts talking negatively in public. That’s what Kyrie does, and not many respect him for that.

• Pitching: Mitch Keller and Roansy Contreras each won five games last season. They led the starting rotation in that category.  The most wins on the team was six, by two relievers, Will Crowe and Chase Dejong. Keller and Contreras are being asked to lead the pitching staff in 2023. Need I say more?

KEY PLAYER

Oneil Cruz: I don't think there has ever been a more talked about regular season single in recent memory than last year's 122.4 miles per hour hit off the wall by Oneil Cruz in August against Atlanta.  They make it out to be like it led to something other than a tie for last place in the NL Central. It’s still talked about in the baseball world today.  He may end up being a star at some point, but as a rookie last season he struck out 126 times in 87 games and hit .233.  He certainly has the power and can crush the ball. What else does he have?

FINAL THOUGHTS

The Pirates won’t go anywhere relevant if their current pitching situation remains what it is. That needs work before anything else. Fix the arms issues, get a couple of aces, and a big bat or two, perhaps some good relievers, and then, yes, this team will have something worth talking about next year.

5th Place: Cincinnati Reds

LIKES

• Two Young Power Arms At The Top: By the win/loss record, there was nothing impressive about rookies Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo in 2022. Greene was 5-13. Lodolo was 4-7. Their ERA and WHIP were nothing special. Greene: 4.44, 1.21. Lodolo: 3.66, 1.25. What is impressive? The strikeouts. Greene: 164 K in 125 1/3 IP. Lodolo: 131 K in 103 1/3 IP. I’m not sure how good they are going to be yet, but these two pitchers will at least give Cincy fans something to get excited about in ‘22. Maybe this duo becomes one of the better one-two punches in the game before too long.

CONCERNS

• Bullpen other than Alexis Diaz. Another Reds rookie who stood out last year was Alexis Diaz. He had a 1.84 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 83 K in 62 1/3 IP. He also had 10 saves and has been named the Cincinnati closer to begin the season.

KEY PLAYER

Jonathan India: This is a flip-of-the-coin pick. I’m not sure if there is one true ‘Key Player’ on this team for 2023. I’ll throw India into the spot since he won the Rookie of the Year Award in ‘21 but fell off a bit in ‘22. In his first year, he hit .269, with 21 HR, 98 runs, and 34 two-baggers. In 2022: .249, 10 HR in 103 games. 

FINAL THOUGHTS

Even though I think the Pirates will be slightly better than Cincinnati in 2023, the Reds’ future may be brighter. Both teams have Top 10 farm systems, but for me, having potentially two young aces currently in the making is the tiebreaker.

One division left to cover. The NL East comes next along with my Playoff Predictions before the first game of the new season on Thursday. Thanks for reading.

Subscribe now

Only one team has won this division since 2013 that isn’t named the Los Angeles Dodgers. It happened only two years ago when the San Francisco Giants shocked everybody and won 107 games, which was barely good enough to end the L.A. streak of eight consecutive NL West Titles. The team in blue won 106 in ‘21, and still defeated the Giants in the Division Series in five games.

The Giants and Dodgers are the two storied franchises of the NL West and always will be. This year, I think that story, at least for one season, will have a chapter added for the San Diego Padres. From the offensive powerhouse that they should be, to the solid rotation and bullpen, I like the Pads more than any other team, including that other franchise from southern California.

There will be a new NL West Champion in 2023. This is the year San Diego should step up and take the crown from the king.

2022 FINAL STANDINGS

PREDICTIONS

1st Place: San Diego Padres

LIKES

• Lineup: Without Fernando Tatis Jr. in this lineup to start the season, it’s still top-tier in MLB. With Tatis returning after he serves the rest of his 80-game suspension for PED use, then, in theory, this lineup is as good as any from top to bottom in baseball. Shortstop, Xander Bogaearts, arrives from Boston and can always be penciled in for around a .290 or better batting average. I expect Juan Soto to be better than last season, and his sidekick, Manny Machado to be the same MVP-caliber player he was in ‘22.

• Pitching: Overall, between the starting rotation and the bullpen, this is a solid group. I won’t say either area is top of the line, but neither is a weakness. With Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, and eventually, Joe Musgrove (out with a toe injury), atop this staff, there will be plenty of leads handed over to the pen. Closer, Josh Hader, who has been one of the best in baseball for quite some time now, completely lost his stuff in July (12.54 ERA), and August (19.06 ERA) last year. His ERA for the season was 5.22. He found his stuff later and looked like his normal self in September and October.

CONCERNS

• Fernando and the shoulder: The Padres have already had to deal with the type of person that Tatis is. In early December 2021, Fernando was in a motorcycle accident and fractured his wrist. He decided not to tell the team until March 2022. Tie it together with the PED suspension later that year and all San Diego fans can do is hope that those shenanigans are over and he will be all about becoming a star on the field again. Don’t forget that, also, in ‘21, he had surgery on a torn labrum in his left shoulder. Add that to the other question marks around his character, and I don’t know what to expect from him in 2023.

KEY PLAYER

Juan Soto: His .242 batting average last season was the lowest of his career by far. He’s a .287 lifetime hitter and an on-base machine (.424 OBP since day one). The Padres traded for him late last year. They made it to the NLCS by defeating both the Mets and Dodgers. Juan didn’t do much to help in the playoffs, hitting .211 in 12 games. I’m not worried about Soto getting back to his career norms unless this current oblique issue he has heading into Opening Day is a cause for concern.

FINAL THOUGHTS

The Dodgers are likely far from a 111-win team again. The Padres have no excuse not to be better than an 89-win team. This race feels like it will go down to the final couple of weeks. I’m banking on everything to click by mid-summer for San Diego. After defeating L.A. in the Division Series last October, this team has to be over any mental barrier it might have had during the past few years while trying to win the NL West.

2nd Place: Los Angeles Dodgers

LIKES

• The ‘Should Be’ scary lineup: Give me Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith and I have three of the best players in the league at their positions covered. Throw in a better Max Muncy and J.D. Martinez and this top and middle part of the order could be great. No matter what, it will be good, but to beat the Pads, I think everything will need to click. The huge blow was losing Gavin Lux early in spring training to a torn ACL and sprained LCL in his right knee. Fortunately for L.A. they have a deep farm system and have always been able to find adequate replacements.

• Freddie Freeman: It doesn’t matter where he bats in the order. You can put him anywhere, on any field and he will hit for around a .300 average every season. For his career, he’s a .296 hitter at home and .301 on the road. He’s also known to be a pretty good defensive first baseman.

CONCERNS

• Rotation: I’ll take Julio Urias any day of the week. He’s 26 years old and has had back-to-back high-quality seasons on the mound. After Urias, the questions start to pile up. Clayton Kershaw, from a distance, had a nice-looking ‘22 season, going 12-3, with a 2.28 ERA and .942 WHIP. That sounds like vintage Kershaw if you only glance at the numbers. The issue, as with many starting pitchers around the league, is that he only pitched 126 1/3 innings. For a guy who used to throw 200 innings easily in his heyday, it’s concerning to think he is your #2 and hasn’t thrown 180 innings or more since 2015.

  Tony Gonsolin has an injured ankle and won’t return until, likely, the end of April. He was 16-1 last season. Dustin May can’t be counted on for much of anything with his injury history. Rounding out the rotation is Noah Syndergaard, who has had to reinvent himself after numerous arm injuries. He was decent last year with the Phillies, but not the pitcher many hoped he would become early on with the Mets.

• Bullpen: The pen is OK at best. This could be where the real issues occur over a full season. L.A. is resourceful and my guess would be that if it is a problem they will find the pieces to fix it in a hurry.

KEY PLAYER

J.D. Martinez: When an off year for a player is .274, 16 HR, 64 RBIs, it’s a probable sign of a good career. Martinez has had a nice overall go at it, batting .288 since 2011. He’s normally good for 30 homers a year, but for some reason after May of '22, he couldn’t hit for power or average with the Red Sox. I’m thinking it was a fluke run and he’ll bounce back in the Dodger lineup. Kind of lost in all of this is that he did have a career-high 43 doubles last season.

FINAL THOUGHTS

If Martinez is Martinez and Muncy has a season like he generally does, then this lineup could be deadly. What scares me the most about this Dodgers team is pitching depth. When healthy, they should be fine. If not, they will be in trouble. The bats will only be able to do so much.

3rd Place: Arizona Diamondbacks

LIKES

• Lineup Potential: If 22-year-old outfielder, Corbin Carroll, turns out to be the player many are believing, then this could be one of the more exciting teams to watch in the NL West. It sounds like the organization is expecting a great all-around hitter with good speed as well. They’re going to need some help from newly acquired, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. His 2021 statistics will probably do the trick. He hit .276 with 21 HR and 86 RBIs for the Blue Jays that year. Ketel Marte will need to stay on the field, and if he can hit the way he did in 2019, then this lineup should be solid.

• Farm System: The farm ranks in the Top 5 on most lists. Carroll is #1 and shortstop, Jordan Lawlar (20 years old), and outfielder, Druw Jones (19), the son of former Braves ‘Gold Glove Machine’, Andruw Jones, are both Top 15 prospects in the Majors.

CONCERNS

• Closer Situation: Does the name Scott McGough ring a bell? It didn’t for me either. He once pitched for the Marlins in 2015, giving them 6.2 innings of work. He is supposedly in competition with Miguel Castro for the closing duties to start the year. Castro has seven career saves and none since 2020. I’m surprised the D-backs wouldn’t rather have one of the lefties in the pen, Joe Mantiply or Andrew Chafin, take the first shots at closing games. They at least both have some saves since 2021.

• Madison Bumgarner: I can’t think of a truly good reason why this one-time great pitcher, especially in the postseason (8-3, 2.11 ERA to go along with an NLCS and World Series MVP in 2014), has fallen so far from what he used to be. Since leaving the Giants after the 2019 season, MadBum has gone 14-25 with an ERA that has to make you wonder about some things. His ERA for the last three seasons: ‘20-6.48, ‘21-4.67, ‘22-4.88. He’s only 33. I’d like to think he has something productive left in that arm, but it would be shocking if he ever has a year close to what he accomplished between 2012-2016. That’s asking a lot, but if he can find a way to put up something similar to his 2019 line, then maybe this rotation will be better than anticipated.

KEY PLAYER

Ketel Marte: The Diamondbacks need this guy on the field. He’s been injured every season for the last three years and has had only one standout campaign. In 2019, Marte was becoming the face of the franchise and hit .329, 32 HR, 92 RBIs, 36 doubles, and added nine triples. The year before, he led the league with 12 three-baggers.

FINAL THOUGHTS

This is one of my hit-or-miss teams in 2023. They won 74 games last year in a division with a 111-win team. The magic number for the sixth and final playoff spot in the NL was 87 wins in ‘22. Philadelphia had the honors and then proceeded to win the National League pennant. I don’t think Arizona is that good, but I could see them surprising a lot of teams by being in the hunt for a postseason berth come September.

4th Place: San Francisco Giants

LIKES

• Logan Webb: Over the past two seasons, this ace has come across to me as a guy who is going to be a big game pitcher for this franchise for as long as he remains in a Giants uniform. He showed signs of this in the 2021 postseason. In two games started, he threw 14 innings and had a 0.61 ERA and 0.68 WHIP. I’m not sure what to expect from the rest of the rotation this season. Between Alex Cobb, Alex Wood, Ross Stripling, and Sean Manaea, it’s hard to say who the clear #2 is. They’ve all had their ups and downs. Webb, however, going by his last two years, is a fine choice to lead this rotation.

• Bullpen: Camilo Doval saved 27 games last year and had a respectable 2.66 ERA in the process. The Rogers twins, Taylor and Tyler, have both been solid MLB relievers. As with the entirety of the San Francisco Giants team in 2023, there’s nothing exciting to see, but the relievers will get the job done more often than not.

CONCERNS

• Lineup: There’s not a single player who hit close to .300 last year in the projected lineup. Joc Pederson led the regulars with a .274 batting average. He’s a lifetime .237 hitter. Coming over from the Mariners, the one power threat the Giants have, Mitch Haniger, is starting the season on the IL with an oblique issue. If Brandon Crawford and Michael Conforto don’t show some flashes from their primes, then this team is going to struggle to score runs.

KEY PLAYER

“All for One and One for All”: I’ve never read anything by Alexandre Dumas, but I’ll take the rest of his line and finish my point…“United we stand divided we fall.” This quote exemplifies the Giants organization. No one man has carried this team since, I would argue, the Barry Bonds era. The three World Series wins over the past decade were not won because of one person, but a strong unit with every player knowing his role and doing it well. That is what San Fran is going to rely on this season, and likely many more to come.

FINAL THOUGHTS

The Giants won 107 games in 2021. 81 was quite a dropoff in ‘22. I won’t often count this team out, because they do find ways to win games and generally exceed expectations. If they finish in second place ahead of San Diego or L.A., that would be unbelievable considering what this team looks like on paper.

5th Place: Colorado Rockies

LIKES

• Lineup at Coors: Yesterday I previewed the AL West. The A’s were my obvious fifth-place finisher given the fact that their lineup is one of the worst, if not the worst, in all of MLB. However, it is possible, that even if the lowly-rated Oakland hitters played 81 games at Coors Field their stats would inflate. This is most often, not always, the case with Colorado regulars. I do not like this lineup much, but they’ll still score runs above league average because of their location. On the road, that’s a different story. Read on.

CONCERNS

• Lineup away from Coors: I’ve always admired Charlie Blackmon. He’s played his entire career in Colorado and has been mostly healthy throughout. In 689 games at home, he is a lifetime .334 hitter. On the road-.264 in 715 games. This could be Blackmon’s last year in the big leagues before calling it quits. This offense isn’t like one of the Rockies teams from the late 90s/early 2000s with Larry Walker and Todd Helton, both putting up numbers not only at home but on the road as well. Those were special players. This Rockies team doesn’t have that kind of player.

• Pitching at Coors: Is there anyone who wants to pitch here? Their projected #1 and 2 in the rotation are Kyle Freeland and German Marquez. Put them on a field far from the Mile High City last season and they’ll give you a 3.08 and 3.43 ERA, respectively. At home in ‘22, their ERA was 6.00 and 6.70, again, respectively.

KEY PLAYER

Kris Bryant: I mentioned special players earlier when referring to the greatness of Walker and Helton. Some thought Kris Bryant was on a similar kind of road with the Chicago Cubs. He played over 150 games in each of his first three campaigns and put up some solid numbers, which many believed were only going to get better. That never happened. He’s been good when he’s not injured, but not great. The Rockies’ best chance at being decent is if Bryant reaches that next level at age 31.

FINAL THOUGHTS

I feel bad for any ball player that has had to play the majority of his career in Colorado. That goes for the hitters just as much as the pitchers. Everyone says it’s too much of a hitter-friendly park to take numbers produced there seriously, due mostly to the thin air of where the team plays. The ball travels differently so it is understandable why people say that. You will find that to be true with just about every hitter that has called Coors Field their home. Their stats are better in Denver. What can you do about it, other than not play there for half the season?

Here’s the big problem with Colorado. If you pitch there, you know your stats likely will look worse than if you were pitching in most other parks. So your numbers will never look great. Case in point-Freeland and Marquez. You can’t win.

If you hit there, your stats are considered inflated, therefore, players like Blackmon (mentioned earlier about his home .BA), and even a great like Helton, never get a fair evaluation. You can’t win.

The sad part with Helton is that he was so dominant at home (.345 career average), that people, mainly Hall-of-Fame voters, can’t appreciate how good he was on the road (.287 career average and 271 doubles). To put that in perspective, one of the “all-time greats”, Mr. Mike Trout, has 297 career doubles in 301 more games than Helton played on the road. Anyone that has a .316 career batting average with nearly 600 doubles, darn well better be enshrined someday. I am sure Todd will get into the Hall soon. He was close this year on his fifth try. It’s just sad that voters immediately frown upon and diminish the careers of anyone, pitcher or hitter, who played at Coors Field.

Up next..NL Central predictions.

Subscribe now

Six straight ALCS appearances by the Astros is a show of pure greatness in Major League Baseball. Last year’s World Series Champs won the West by 16 games and cruised in the playoffs, only losing two games total in three series’ combined. This is not only the team to beat in this division, but in all of baseball, and will continue to be until their amazing run, which started in 2017 with their first World Series win in franchise history, finally comes to an end.

Other teams are lurking in this division that would love nothing more than to end the Astros’ dominance. If it’s going to happen in the AL West this year, then three of the four franchises will have to take advantage of situations such as Houston’s “Face of the Franchise”, Jose Altuve, being out until at least June.

The talent might be there for the Mariners, Angels, and Rangers, but showing up to work every day and being productive will ultimately be the only way Houston is dethroned. As for Oakland, to put it nicely, their focus should be on finding a new home.

2022 FINAL STANDINGS

PREDICTIONS

1st Place: Houston Astros

LIKES

• Bats: Despite losing Jose Altuve until at least June as he recovers from thumb surgery after being drilled during the World Baseball Classic by Rockies closer, Daniel Bard, this lineup is still deep enough to score plenty of runs. With the addition of first baseman, Jose Abreu, they’ve added another quality contact hitter in the middle of the order. Abreu is a lifetime .292 hitter and was the lone offensive threat on the White Sox that could be counted on to play close to 160 games every year. Having Jose hit behind Jeremy Peña, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, and Kyle Tucker means a seventh career 100 RBI season is very possible.

• Pitching: 2022 AL Cy Young award winner, Justin Verlander, is now on the Mets. Starting pitchers, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, and Luis Garcia are still on the Astros. Add together those three arms with one of the best bullpens in the league, and you start to see why their team ERA was second in the Majors at 2.90 last season. I expect the ‘Stros to once again be at or near the top in most pitching categories in ‘23.

CONCERNS

• Jose Altuve out for a while: It’s not that Houston doesn’t have the resources to withstand Altuve’s loss, it’s the fact that they are in a division with three other potential teams that might pose a threat to the AL West Champ. However, everyone deals with injuries, and some in this division are in far worse shape than the Astros if they lose a bat like Jose’s. I’m minimally concerned at this time.

• Yordan Alvarez and the “sore” hand issues: I don’t know what it is about his hands, but for the past year, they have both given him enough of a problem that he has had to miss some time. As of now, he is good to go for the start of the regular season. The concern for me is that there hasn’t been a clear answer as to the cause of the soreness. Is this going to be something that Alvarez will have to deal with for the rest of his career?

KEY PLAYER

Yordan Alvarez: I’m going to stay on Yordan here. The slugger is, arguably, the best contact/power combo player in the Majors. In 135 games in 2022, he hit .306 with 37 homers. Astros fans do not want to lose this guy for any length of time.

FINAL THOUGHTS

I would put a good chunk of change down against the Astros winning this division by anywhere near 16 games again as they did in ‘22. That won’t happen this year. I don’t even think they will win this division by a minimum of 10 games. This race is going to be better than some people probably think.

2nd Place: Seattle Mariners

LIKES

• Starting Pitching: This is one of my favorite starting pitching staffs in the American League. I love that they all are innings-eaters. Three of the projected five in the rotation threw over 180 innings last season, and if opening-day ace, Luis Castillo, can up his start total from 25 to 30, then watch out AL West. Even their #5 man, George Kirby, threw 130 innings in his ‘22 rookie campaign, which is more than any arm on the entire Detroit Tigers team could handle.

• The lineup with Teoscar: The addition of Teoscar Hernandez to a team with four players that hit 20 or more homers last season, should make this lineup that much more dangerous. When Hernandez is at his best, he’ll give you a line similar to 2019: .296, 32 HR, 116 RBIs.

CONCERNS

• Not enough quality lefties in the pen: There are plenty of quality right-handed pitchers in the Seattle bullpen. Paul Sewald, Andres Munoz, Diego Castillo, and Penn Murfee can get the outs for this team, but, what happens when a pivotal situation arises similar to the one during last year’s first game of the AL Division Series against the Astros’ big lefty? I don’t think the Mariners will be calling on starting pitcher, Robbie Ray, anymore to get the big outs in relief.

• Astros are still in the AL West: If the ‘Stros left this division, then the M’s would be the favorite for sure. Like it or not, Houston isn’t going anywhere, and until they are properly dethroned by Seattle, whether it be in the division or the playoffs, the dominance of that team from the state of Texas will be on their minds.

KEY PLAYER

Julio Rodriguez: April of 2022 is a month that Julio likely will never forget. He started his rookie season on the opening day lineup card for the M’s and by the end of the month, he was hitting .205 with 30 strikeouts. By season’s end, the 21-year-old had a final line of .284 BA, 28 homers, 75 RBIs, and 25 SBs. Jerred Kelenic was supposed to be the other big prospect to help Seattle last season, but it didn’t work out for him. There have been some good signs this spring, that perhaps, Kelenic will find that stroke that made him one of the top prospects in all of baseball just a few years ago. Add that to what Julio brings, and in future writeups like this one, maybe they share the ‘Key Player’ spot.

FINAL THOUGHTS

Seattle won 90 games in ‘22 and ended their 21-year playoff drought by earning a 5-seed in the American League bracket. They defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 2-0 (both games in Toronto), before getting swept by Houston in the ALDS. This should be a playoff-bound team again, and if there is anyone that can take Houston off of their AL West pedestal, it’s the M’s.

3rd Place: Los Angeles Angels

LIKES

• Opening Day Lineup: On paper, when healthy, as they appear to be as of this writing, I like this lineup, especially with the additions of first baseman, Brandon Drury, and right fielder, Hunter Renfroe. The idea of those two additions hitting in the middle of the order, driving in Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, and Anthony Rendon would give me plenty of optimism as an Angels fan to start the year. But, we’re talking about the Angels, and with their history of inevitable year-to-year injuries with Trout and Rendon, I’m keeping the title as ‘Opening Day Lineup’ until further notice.

• Righty/Lefty arm combos: At 32 years old, lefty, Tyler Anderson had a breakout season with the Dodgers going 15-5 in 28 starts with a 2.53 ERA. He signed with the Angels this offseason and if he can have another quality year to go along with 2-way stud, Ohtani, as well as Patrick Sandoval in the rotation, then this could be a decent overall pitching staff; bullpen included. There’s a good mix of righties and lefties to work with.

CONCERNS

• Injuries to the big names: When you think of the Angels for the past couple of seasons, three names stand out as “Stars”. Trout, Ohtani, and Rendon. Shohei has been the most reliable of the three since 2020. He’s played in back-to-back full seasons as both a hitter and starting pitcher. Everyone knows who he is. His main concerns came early in his career when he had a variety of injuries from elbow strains to UCL damage, and even had knee surgery in 2019. He appears to be fine now and hopefully can keep doing two jobs for the price of one as he comes into his final year under contract with the Angels.

  As for Trout and Rendon. Get on the field and stay on the field. Trout hasn’t played 140 games in a season since 2016. He’s considered one of the best ever? Maybe on a per-game basis, but I’m a counting numbers guy, and you can throw new-age stats like WAR at me all you want, but if I’m looking at traditional, non-theoretical numbers, Mike has a long way to go before he’s in the category of an all-timer. Then there’s Rendon. He hit .326, with 34 homers, 126 RBIs, and 44 doubles in his last season with Washington before landing in L.A. In the last two campaigns, he’s played 105 games combined and when he has been out there, the numbers have been putrid.

• Need for Speed: Only two players in ‘22 had double-digit stolen bases for the Angels. One of them, Andrew Velazquez, has been optioned to the Minors to start the season. He’s a career .192 hitter. The other is Ohtani, who had 11.

KEY PLAYER

Shohei Ohtani: His value at the top of the order and the rotation is irreplaceable. 2022 numbers: .273, 34 HR, 95 RBIs, 30 doubles, and on the mound he had 219 strikeouts in 166 innings pitched, to go along with 15 wins and a 2.33 ERA.

FINAL THOUGHTS

The Angels are a team that has the pieces to be a contender in the AL West but haven’t been to the playoffs since 2014. I believe it goes without saying, but I’ll say it anyway…The only way that they will have a shot at the playoffs is if Trout and Rendon stay relatively healthy for six months. If one of them misses half of the season, then Renfroe and Drury will need to have career years.

4th Place: Texas Rangers

LIKES

• The Seager Shift is over: Corey Seager is a lifetime .287 hitter. He hit .245 in ‘22 and the infield shift was used on him more than any other player in the Majors at a 93.4% rate. Even though the shift didn’t hurt his power numbers (career-high 33 home runs), having two men on both sides of second base should help Corey raise that average to where it normally is. In 47 at-bats this spring, he’s hitting .468. I’d say he is ready to go.

• Top 4 in the Lineup: Seeing players post nearly every day is a rarity of late. The projected top four in the Rangers’ batting order all played 150+ games in ‘22, and each of them put up quality numbers. If Seager, Marcus Semien, Nathaniel Lowe, and Adolis Garcia can get some help from the bottom of the order, then this will be another dangerous offensive AL West team.

CONCERNS

• Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi: deGrom has thrown 224 innings in the last three seasons combined. In 2019 alone, he had 204 innings pitched. Eovaldi has had only a few seasons in which I’m guessing management was happy with his workload. Since his rookie year in 2011, Nathan has thrown 150+ innings only three times. Both pitchers had “tightness in their sides” this spring. I don’t trust either of them to throw anywhere near the number of innings that the Rangers are going to need from them to compete over a full season.

• Bullpen: Any time a team hasn’t officially announced their closer within a few days of the regular season opener, I start to worry. Unless you’re the Tampa Bay Rays, or you have two or three stud relievers that can mix and match for the ninth-inning role, it’s probably a sign that your pen is weak. As of now, it sounds like the battle is between Jose Leclerc and Jonathan Hernandez.

KEY PLAYER

Jacob deGrom: I often think of deGrom as the ‘Mike Trout of pitchers’. They both are considered two of the best players of their time, if not all-time, and yet when you look at their career numbers as far as actual time spent on the field as well as the counting stats, it’s not impressive enough to put them in the same category as some of the greatest players in the history of baseball. deGrom is 34 years old, has 82 career wins, and only 1326 innings pitched in his nine-year MLB career. We all know how great he is when not injured, but once again, as I’ve been choosing my ‘Key Player’ for each franchise, it often comes down to the best player staying healthy.

FINAL THOUGHTS

The offense will be fine and should put up plenty of runs for the Rangers. The obvious question is whether or not Texas has enough pitching to keep runs off the board (even with a healthy deGrom). Last season they scored 707 runs but allowed 743. I think they’ll be better than the 68-win 2022 team, but I don’t know if getting to 80 wins is too much of a stretch? Fourth place feels right.

5th Place: Oakland Athletics

LIKES

• Esteury Ruiz: Having a 24-year-old that hit .332 with 85 stolen bases in 114 Minor League games last year, starts to make one think of a former Oakland great, Rickey Henderson. Can he run like Rickey? Sounds like it. However, does that mean he can get on base like him as well? Probably not. In the Minors, he has a career .364 OBP, and in his short MLB stint in ‘22, he was on base less than 20 percent of the time. Henderson’s career OBP was .401. It’s still fun to think about what this kid could do if he gets on base. For the 2023 Oakland A’s, this might be the only story worth getting excited about.

• Nothing to lose: When a team wins a measly 60 games and comes back the following season without any eye-opening improvements on the field, all they can do is play hard and take some chances, knowing that anything done better than the opposing team on a given day, is a step in the right direction.

CONCERNS

• Lineup top to bottom: Tony Kemp is the projected leadoff hitter for the A’s. He’s been a role player for most of his career and if I were to give you his best year, it would probably end up being last season with this very team. Kemp hit .235 with seven homers and 46 RBIs. That’s a number nine hitter on a lot of teams. The loss of Sean Murphy, via trade with the Atlanta Braves, takes away their second-leading home run hitter in ‘22. The only player with more than 20 homers last season was Seth Brown with 25. Adding first baseman, Jesus Aguilar, won’t help enough in the power department.

• Farm System: There can’t be much hope for a franchise with no formidable MLB players and the 22nd-ranked farm in the league according to MLB.com. Usually, we see a team as bad as Oakland was last year with at least a few top prospects waiting for the call-up. Sometimes, I have to remind myself that the A’s are not far removed from being a quality franchise. They won 86 games in 2021 and won the division in 2020. They are the only team in the last six years to win the West not named the Astros. I’m giving them a pass for now. It will be interesting to see where this team is in a half-decade.

KEY PLAYER

Find a Key Player: Maybe this will be the year the A’s find a breakout star that no one saw coming, but given the state of the franchise as a whole, if they were to lose, or not lose any player on their MLB team to a season-ending injury, would it matter in their quest to stay out of the basement in this division? No.

FINAL THOUGHTS

I’m not going to lie. I had no interest in previewing this team. This is the easiest choice for all of my last-place predictions. I knew they were going to be fifth on my list before I even looked at their roster.

Thanks for reading. I’m staying in the West for my next predictions as we head to the National League.

Subscribe now

Very few people saw it coming when the Cleveland Guardians ran away with the AL Central in 2022. The Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins were considered by many to be the front runners for the Division Title going into last season, but that didn’t come close to happening for either team in the end.

One of the reasons why the Sox and Twins both fell out of the race was because of major injuries to key players, something neither has been able to avoid for quite some time. In 2023, if both squads can keep their players away from long stints on the IL, then this division may be a three-way race to the end.

The Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers have some players to build around going forward, but when it is all said and done, I project that the order in the standings we saw last year in this division will be very similar, if not the same.

2022 FINAL STANDINGS

PREDICTIONS

1st Place: Cleveland Guardians

LIKES

• Pitching in all areas: The starting rotation’s top three with Shane Bieber, Triston Mckenzie, and Cal Quantrill present a nice trio of pitchers for sure. More impressive is probably the Guardians bullpen, which is loaded with efficient strikeout pitchers, led by arguably by the best closer in baseball right now, Emmanuel Clase. The craziest part about this pitching staff is that the entire rotation and the majority of the bullpen are all still in their 20s. Youth is on their side.

• Contact Hitters with some speed: Last season, five players on Cleveland had 18 or more stolen bases, which was good enough to finish third overall in the Majors with 119 total. They also struck out the least of any team with only three players striking out more than 100 times.

CONCERNS

• Lack of power: The Guardians finished second to last in home runs in 2022 with 127. To put that in perspective, the Yankees led the league with 254 dingers. The addition of Josh Bell should help in that department. If he plays a full year, Bell should be good for 25 or more homers.

• The back end of the rotation: After the top three, numbers four and five are iffy. Aaron Civale was 12-5 with a 3.84 ERA in 2021, but last year had just a 5-6 record to go along with a 4.92 ERA. Zach Plesac was 3-12 with a 4.31 ERA, but more concerning is that he has never been a good pitcher on the road. In ‘21 his road ERA was 5.18 and last season it was 4.83.

KEY PLAYER

Jose Ramirez: When thinking of who to select as the key player for each team, I try to think of someone less obvious than the star. However, no matter where you look, there is no one more valuable to the Guardians than Ramirez. He is their Do-It-All man. If they lost him for any serious length of time, their season would likely be lost as well. I can’t say that about anyone else on the team, therefore, Jose is the best choice for this spot.

FINAL THOUGHTS

This was the youngest team in the Majors last year. Not only did they win the AL Central by 11 games, but they also defeated the Rays 2-1 in the Wild Card Series and pushed the Yankees to the brink of elimination in the Division Series, losing in five. They make contact, avoid strikeouts, run the bases well, and their pitching staff as a whole is about as good as any in the Majors. The Guardians will find a way to win the Central for a second consecutive season.

2nd Place: Chicago White Sox

LIKES

• Rotation: I’m going to say this with caution. I like this rotation if Lucas Giolito’s 2022 season was more of an aberration than the new norm. The pre-’22 Lucas was twice in the top 10 in Cy Young voting, but last year couldn’t find any consistency on the mound. He finished with a 4.90 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. If he’s back on his game, and the Sox can get some good things out of the Mikes (Clevinger and Kopech) at the back end of their rotation, then this staff, led by last year’s breakout pitcher, Dylan Cease, should win a lot of games.

• Lineup IF HEALTHY: The lineup will make or break this team. It could be one of the scariest in all of baseball or just another constantly changing, daily lineup card for the manager to fill out. Jose Abreu is gone, but if you told me today that Luis Robert, Eloy Jiminez, Tim Anderson, and even Yoan Moncada (still wondering if he’ll become the hitter some think he could be) are going to play a full season with minimal injuries, then put me down as a believer. But, believing is seeing, and in this case, I haven’t seen it yet.

CONCERNS

• Injury-prone players: Tying this in with the LIKES note earlier about being healthy, it’s worth mentioning that only Abreu (now with the Astros) played more than 140 games last year for Chicago. He was also 35 at the time. These young, and gifted players that the Sox have must, at some point in their careers, play most of the season if they want any chance at an American League Championship.

  2022 Games Played numbers-Anderson(79), Jiminez (84), Robert (98), Moncada (104). This isn’t just a one-year fluky occurrence. This is every season for these guys. It’s time to stay healthy.

• Bullpen: My guess is that this will be a closer-by-committee approach as some teams do nowadays. Kendall Graveman is the presumed closer. His career high in Saves was 10 in 2021. The rest of the pen as it stands today is nothing opposing teams will be worried about.

KEY PLAYER

Luis Robert: He’s 25. His first year was in the Covid-shortened 2020 season and he struggled. In 2021 he broke out with a .338 BA, 13 HR, 43 RBIs, 22 doubles, and 42 runs scored in a 68-game injury-plagued season. Between ‘21 and ‘22 he played only a total of 164 games (a full season’s worth in two years). Combine those numbers for an idea of what you might get out of Robert for a full 162 and there leaves little doubt about how good he is when healthy. 201 hits in 655 at-bats gave him a .306 BA, 25 HR, 99 RBIs, 40 doubles, and 96 runs scored in that span.

FINAL THOUGHTS

Stay healthy Chicago and you can win this division and more. If just half the guys who haven’t been healthy for the past few seasons are on the field for the entire year, this team could still make the playoffs. The talent is there. Unfortunately, I don’t trust young players to stay healthy when they have had an injury history for as long as some of these Sox players have.

3rd Place: Minnesota Twins

LIKES

• Lineup Potential: It seems to be the storyline for so many teams now… ‘What if Everyone Stay Healthy?’ The Twins’ offense is already down second baseman, Jorge Polanco (knee), and first baseman, Alex Kiriloff (wrist) to start the season. It sounds like both IL stints will be short, but the point is, as with the White Sox, keeping your best players on the field of late, seems to be a major hurdle to overcome. Despite the AL batting champ, Luis Arraez, being traded away to the Marlins, this lineup has a lot of potential with Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa batting at the top.

• Pitching Potential: Arraez was traded for Pablo Lopez in the offseason. The Lopez addition to a rotation with Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maida, might not exhilarate Twins fans. The flip side to that, however, is that if they get the best from each of the aforementioned names based on what they’ve all accomplished at certain points in their careers, then there could be some hope in the clubhouse for 2023.

CONCERNS

• Joey Gallo: “He can hit the ball to the moon,” some fans like to say about Gallo. That’s great, but can he hit over .200 once in a while? For three consecutive seasons, Gallo has hit below the Mendoza Line. In fact, his career batting average is below the Mendoza Line at .199. The infield shift is now gone to help players like Joey raise their hit total. If his 37 at-bats this spring are a sign of things to come, then there will at least be some who can finally admit that he is an awful Major League hitter. He has a .216 batting average this spring. I didn’t even mention the ridiculous amount of strikeouts.

• Game Played: Out of the current Twins players from last year’s squad, Carlos Correa played the most games with 136. This is the same player who was passed on this offseason by both the Giants and Mets because of “medical concerns” over surgery he had on his lower right leg as a teenager. Usually, it’s his back that is a problem. Any way you look at this team, the best players need to be on the field more often. This leads me to their ‘Key Player’, Mr. Byron Buxton.

KEY PLAYER

Byron Buxton: With so many young players today, it seems to all come down to one word, ‘Potential’. In Buxton’s case, we’ve been hearing about this “potential” for almost a decade. He certainly has shown flashes of it when he has been on the field. The problem is that he is now 29 years old and in his eight-year MLB career has only played more than 100 games once (2017, 140 GP). He’s a .244 career hitter and if he’s as good as many pundits say, then this is the year Twins fans need to see it. This team can hang around in the division race, but he will be the one who has to make that happen.

FINAL THOUGHTS

My feeling is that the Twins will end the season with a similar record as they had in 2022. Maybe they’ll reach 81 wins, but they are going to need everyone to step up a notch and stay off of the IL.

4th Place: Kansas City Royals

LIKES

• Bullpen: The Royals’ 4.70 team ERA last season was 27th in baseball. I’m not sold on their rotation (see ‘Concerns’), but I can see this bullpen being solid if newly acquired, Aroldis Chapman, can keep his head on straight and focus on baseball. Scott Barlow and Dylan Coleman were very good in ‘22. Even, Amir Garrett, who hasn’t had a good season in a few years, perhaps can show some flashes from his ‘19 and ‘20 campaigns. I don’t love the pen, but I like it if the four players just mentioned pitch the way they are capable of for the entire season.

• First four in the batting order: In whatever order they end up batting each day, I do like the young sophomores, Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino. MJ Melendez is another second-year player who has some potential and we’ll see if he can hit for a decent average. So far, in his 541 games played between the Majors and Minors, he has just a .232 batting average. He’s going to have to do better if he wants to bat near or at the top of the lineup in the future. Hitting cleanup should be veteran catcher, Salvador Perez, who has had a nice career behind the plate and swings for the fences about as well as any backstop in the league.

CONCERNS

• Starting Pitching: This is not a strikeout-oriented staff by any measure. Not one of the projected five rotation players averaged at least one strikeout per inning pitched last season. In other words, there are going to be a lot of balls in play. The defense won’t have many breaks and will have to be on its toes every game.

• Bottom of the order: Kyle Isbel, Nate Eaton, Edward Olivares, Michael Massey, and six-year vet, Hunter Dozier, look like the top candidates to fill out 5-9 in the batting order. At least a couple of them will need to have a breakout year with the sticks if the Royals want any chance to compete for the Central.

KEY PLAYER

Bobby Witt Jr.: The 22-year-old hit .254 in his rookie campaign last year. That’s not great, but I think he will improve considering he’s a lifetime .283 hitter in the Minors. The rest of his stat line was impressive-20 homers, 80 RBIs, 31 doubles, and 30 stolen bases in 150 games played. This is the Royals’ future star and is already the most important player in the Kansas City franchise after just one season in the Show.

FINAL THOUGHTS

The starting pitching is about as questionable as it gets. The bullpen could be good, but that’s only if they all do what they’re capable of. There are also a lot of question marks in the lineup, and though I think the Royals are heading in the right direction long-term, this team is at least two or three years away in my mind from being a real threat in this division.

5th Place: Detroit Tigers

LIKES

• The Bats, IF, some things happen: If Javier Baez, and Austin Meadows both hit the way that they are capable of and the two young potential future stars, Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson, improve this season, then this lineup could be dangerous. You’re not likely getting much out of surefire Hall-of-Famer Miguel Cabrera except for a lot of waves to the crowd after long applauses and celebrations everywhere he goes in his last MLB season. The majority of Tigers runs are going to be produced by the four players noted at the start of this section, or it’s going to be an even longer season for Detroit fans than already anticipated.

• Miguel Cabrera: This does not mean that I like the 39-year-old version of Miggy and believe that he will be productive, but you have to love the career he has had. What Cabrera has accomplished at the plate for the last two decades is about as good as it gets. Hopefully, he goes out in style and gets another hit in his last at-bat of the year to put an exclamation on some incredible numbers that I don’t think will ever be touched again by any up-and-coming players in the future.

CONCERNS

• Starting Pitching: My eyes were looking for any good signs in the pitching department. The rotation led by Eduardo Rodriguez is as unpromising as it gets. Not one of their projected starting pitchers to begin the season threw more than 100 innings last year.

• Bullpen: It’s filled with a bunch of unknowns. Without a few starting pitchers to give the Tigers some innings, at the very least, these relievers will get a lot of opportunities to prove me wrong.

KEY PLAYER

Austin Meadows: It was just two years ago with Tampa Bay when Meadows hit 27 homers and drove in 106 runs. In 2019, he hit .289 with 33 homers and 89 RBIs in 138 games. I’m not sure if he will ever be the kind of player who plays in more than 140 games, but as long as he is out there and productive, that can mean a few more wins for the Tigers and maybe, just maybe, not a last-place finish.

FINAL THOUGHTS

It might be a battle between the Tigers and Royals down to the last week of the season for fourth place in the Central, but I have a bit more faith in K.C. to finish ahead in the standings. I would not only be surprised, but I would also applaud either team if they finish in third place or better.

Up next: Predictions for the, potentially, crazy AL WEST, which won’t be lacking in storylines this season.

Subscribe now

Since 2010, the AL East has not been dominated year after year by any one team. Both the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox have won the division four times in that span. The Tampa Bay Rays have three division crowns, while the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays have one apiece.

The Yanks are the defending AL East Champs. Last year they took the division by seven games over the Jays and were led by AL MVP, Aaron Judge, who had a season for the ages. If Judge puts up similar numbers again, and the other Yankees bats around him can produce at a high level, then New York may very well repeat in 2023.

This is the first of six divisions I will be predicting from first place to last before opening day. As my picks were being made, I realized that the AL East will probably be the most difficult of all to predict from top to bottom.

2022 FINAL STANDINGS

PREDICTIONS

1st Place: Toronto Blue Jays

LIKES

• Lineup: On the assumption that leadoff man, George Springer, can, at the very least, give the Jays 140 games played this year (2018 was the last time he hit that mark), then I’ll take this lineup over any in the division with Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the rest of the gang hitting behind him.

• Starting Staff: With Alek Manoah taking the hill on opening day, and Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt presumed to follow, the top three in the rotation have been about as consistent over the past few seasons as you can ask for. Gausman has proved to be a valuable pitching asset since he turned 30. The main question mark for me is Jose Berrios (See ‘Key Player’ below).

CONCERNS

• A lot of right-handed arms: For as good as the starting rotation and fairly deep bullpen are, there is a lack of quality left-handed arms on this team. Yusei Kikuchi will be their #5 starter, but he hasn’t done much in his four-year MLB career. In the pen, the top relievers are all righties.

• Speed on the basepaths: Only two players stole more than 10 bags for the Jays last season; Springer (14), and Bichette (13). With the addition of Daulton Varsho, who had 16 last year with the D-backs, perhaps the stolen base numbers rise. If Whit Merrifield, who only had one SB in ‘22 while on the Jays (16 overall), can ever get near 40 again, as he had in 2021 with the Royals, then scratch this issue as being a concern.

KEY PLAYER

Jose Berrios: A 5.23 ERA and 1.42 WHIP are nowhere near good enough for a guy who from 2017-2019, was looking like one of the future top aces in MLB. Since 2020 he’s had some injuries to deal with, but last year threw 172 innings and looked like anything but an ace. If he can get it going, that will help steady this already solid rotation.

FINAL THOUGHTS

2015 was the last time Toronto won the East. As this team stands now, there is very little I don’t like. They’ve been kind of the ‘sexy’ pick for the past few years to make a run at the World Series. I’m not sure yet if that will happen this year (stay tuned on Wednesday, March 29th for my Playoff Predictions), but this feels like the time that the Jays will fly to the top of the crop and make their presence known.

2nd Place: New York Yankees

LIKES

• Aaron Judge: Just a reminder that this 30-year-old hit .311 with 62 homers last year. I could give you more standout numbers, but those two alone should automatically label a player in the ‘Great Season’ category.

• Rotation: I would have said two days ago, as it looks right now, that despite newly acquired, Carlos Rodon, starting the season on the IL with a forearm strain, this rotation will be a force with Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, and (hard swallow) Luis Severino. However, as of this writing, it looks as if Severino will be joining Rodon on the IL with a low-grade lat strain. On the assumption that Rodon will return at some point in April, and Severino isn’t out for too long, then they will be fine.

CONCERNS

• Rotation: The AL East is loaded with offensive talent. If only Cole and Cortes will be healthy for the entire season, then there could be some issues keeping runs off the board. The Yankees pen isn’t 100% healthy right now either, so I think that April will be a very interesting month for the Bronx Bombers.

• The Hasbeens: The Yankees’ key offensively is power. They led the league last year with 254 homers and I am sure will be up there again. Despite those gaudy numbers, Anthony Rizzo hit .224 last year (.265 career), DJ LeMahieu his .261 (.297 career), and Josh Donaldson, a one-time MVP hit .222 with just 15 homers in 132 games. If these guys can find their old selves again, then this team could easily win the division despite the pitching concerns.

KEY PLAYER

Carlos Rodon: He was the main off-season acquisition for this team. He’s had an injury-prone career but is very good when on the bump. The early season IL stint wouldn’t be concerning if not for his history. Cole will be Cole, but Rodon will need to be that dominant #2 man once back.

FINAL THOUGHTS

The Severino injury is concerning. He was top-notch in ‘17 and ‘18, but since those years, staying on the field has been the issue. It’s a good thing the Yanks have as consistent an ace as Cole because as much I like Rodon, I don’t trust him to stay healthy. The lineup will carry this team to a lot of wins, and making the playoffs shouldn’t be an issue.

3rd Place: Baltimore Orioles

LIKES

• The Youngsters: Catcher, Adley Rutschman, and third baseman, Gunnar Henderson are two players that I am excited to watch this season. With arguably the best farm system in all of baseball, the future is looking good.

• Lineup: Between the young lads mentioned above, and the power potential between the Anthony Santander/Ryan Mountcastle duo in the middle of the order, scoring runs should not be too much of an issue.

CONCERNS

• Pitching: You’d have to be a foolish fan to feel comfortable with a starting rotation led by Kyle Gibson, Cole Irvin, Dean Kremer, and Kyle Bradish. The kid everyone believes will be the future ace of the staff, Grayson Rodriguez, will likely win the fifth starter position out of camp. There hasn’t been an official word yet. As for the bullpen, I like Felix Bautista closing games (65.2 innings pitched with 88 K’s and a 2.19 ERA), but the depth after him could be an issue.

• Low on-base players: The fact that last year’s AL Rookie of the Year, Rutschman, wasn’t called up until May 21st and still led the team in walks, is scary in a not-so-positive way. Adley played 111 games and had 65 walks. Next on the list was Anthony Santander with 55. Their team on-base percentage was just .305.

KEY PLAYER

Cedric Mullins: He’s the table setter, and had an off year in 2022 when compared to his ‘21 campaign.

2021- .291 AVG, .360 OBP, 30 homers, 37 doubles

2022- .258 AVG, .318 OBP, 16 homers, 32 doubles

He’ll probably steal close to 40 bags this season but needs to get on base more frequently if the Orioles want to contend.

FINAL THOUGHTS

The O’s surprised everyone with an 86-win 2022, just one season after going 52-110. Maybe they keep getting better and their rotation is stronger than I’m giving it credit for, but there are the Blue Jays and Yanks, followed by a decent drop to the third-best team in this division in my mind. They can stay ahead of the Rays and Sox and should be in the mix for a Top 6 playoff spot come September.

4th Place: Tampa Bay Rays

LIKES

• ERA: Since 2019, the Rays have finished in the Top 5 in MLB in Earned Run Average. They find ways to keep runs off the board every year despite keeping their starting pitchers workload at what seems like the bare minimum a Major League staff could get away with. The last time a player threw anywhere close to 200 innings in a season for this franchise was in 2019 when Charlie Morton hit the 194 2/3 mark.

• Bullpen: In 2022, Jason Adam and Pete Fairbanks led this team in Saves with eight apiece. To repeat that one more time…Just eight! Every year this pen seems to have a different closer every month and still finds a way to finish games and make a run at the playoffs with few issues.

CONCERNS

• Tyler Glasnow: This time it’s an oblique strain that will likely keep him out for the first two months of the season. I’ve been hearing about Glasnow and how good he is for more than a few years now. The bottom line is that there comes a point when you have to be real and stop thinking that a player is going to be one of the future aces of your team. He’s hurt every year. He’s been in the league since 2016 and has never thrown 100 innings in a season. At age 29, and with a career ERA of exactly 4.00 to go along with just a 20-20 win/loss record, I’m not banking on him to be the player the Rays are hoping for.

• Starting Pitching: With Glasnow already out for likely one-third of the season, other than Shane McClanahan, is there anyone in the rotation who will be asked to throw 150+ innings this season? Is there anyone capable of it?

KEY PLAYER

Brandon Lowe: It would be too easy to say Glasnow here, and I’m not wasting my 'Key Player’ spot on a guy who I think will fall short of 100 innings once again this year. Lowe, on the other hand, struggled in 65 games last season after coming back from a stress reaction in his lower back. He hit just .221 in those appearances with eight homers. In 2021, he hit .247 but had the power stats with 39 homers and 99 RBIs. If Lowe and Wander Franco are back to their ‘21 forms, then this team might finish in a higher position than my predicted 4th spot.

FINAL THOUGHTS

This is the year the Rays finally come back down to earth. The last time Tampa was not in the Top 3 in the AL East was in 2016 when they finished in last place. So, maybe, this is a bold prediction having them finish in 4th. When I look at this team, I see too many holes and injury concerns with both the offense and pitching. Then again, this is the Rays, and if there was one team in the division I had to stay away from betting against, this is that franchise.

5th Place: Boston Red Sox

LIKES

• The WBC version of Masataka Yoshida: .409 batting average, two homers, and 13 RBI in seven games played in the World Baseball Classic. If the Red Sox get those numbers on average every week or so, then I like their chances to surprise some teams and finish at least third in this division. But, that’s not going to happen. In reality, I do like what I saw from Yoshida and if he is going to be hitting cleanup for the Sox, he should drive in 80 to 100 runs or more.

• Rafael Devers: He’s 26, and hits for average and power. The third baseman doesn’t strike out a whole lot, relatively speaking. You know what you’re going to get from him every year. I love consistent players.

CONCERNS

• Starting Rotation: If this was a year we could go back in time to maybe, 2017, and bring back to the present the trio of Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, and James Paxton, then I would argue that this team will compete for the 2023 AL East Title. Since that is impossible, we are dealing with the ‘23 versions of all of these pitchers, and not one of them gives me (and I would hope most fans as well) a sense of optimism.

• Offensive Question Marks: As good as Yoshida could be, Boston fans won’t know what he really can do until the regular season begins. Justin Turner is a fine hitter, but for how much longer? He’s 38 now and hasn’t exactly been a player you can count on for a full season of work throughout his career. Overall, if this lineup gets banged up with injuries, there are going to be major problems in the depth department.

KEY PLAYER

The Entire Pitching Staff: You would think with the names Sale, Kluber, Paxton, and even their much younger starting pitcher, Garrett Whitlock, that it would be the bullpen that is more concerning for the Sox. The truth is, right now, with Paxton out to start the year (hamstring) as well as Whitlock (recovering from hip surgery), I’m more comfortable with their pen and names like Kenley Jansen, John Schreiber, Chris Martin, and Richard Bleier.

FINAL THOUGHTS

Paxton has never come close to pitching 200 innings in a season (career-high 160 1/3 in 2018). Sale has thrown less than 50 innings combined over the last three seasons for a whopping 90 million dollars. Corey Kluber, was decent last year with the Rays, giving them 164 innings, but even he is prone to being on the shelf of late.

Of all my 1-5 predictions in the AL East, I am most confident in this one.

That wraps up the AL East predictions. Up next is the AL Central. Thanks for reading.

Subscribe now

Major League Baseball can change this game however many times it wants. It could be completely unrecognizable to the older baseball fan, just to make the youngins happier. BUT (Reality Check), in the end, even if it’s the most exciting baseball experience of their young lives playing out right in front of them, many will still be on their cell phones for three-quarters of the time thinking about anything but the game itself.  Not all of them, but many. I ask that MLB stops trying to overhaul so many good things about the game when there are only a few moderate adjustments needed to be made here and there to appease both sides.

There are six main changes since 2020 that I want to talk about and, technically, one of them is off the field. A few of them deal with what initially started as COVID health protocols to “keep the players safe” by spending fewer hours at the park. Understandable at the time. However, I remember saying to a few of my friends when some of these rules were put into place that this was MLB’s excuse to try out these new regulations in hopes that they become permanent.

Below is my list from the ‘Most Aggravating’ to ‘Least Aggravating’ changes that have been made and are staying for 2023 and beyond. I am using a scale of 0-10. 0 being not aggravating at all. 10 meaning completely unnecessary.

TIEBREAKER ‘GAME 163’ IS FINISHED

Aggravation Scale: 10

This is technically my “Off-Field Aggravation” because it’s no longer something that will happen on the field, and it’s a damn shame. I was thinking about this one as I was making my Rules Aggravation Ratings and at first, I had this as a 9, meaning, Ridiculous, but I’ll live with it. But, in reality, I can’t be that dishonest with myself. This is the most unnecessary change that Major League Baseball has put in its rulebook.

Let’s start with the great Tiebreaker ‘Game 163’ moments we’ve had in history. Some of the most memorable games of all time took place during these extra contests, and now, MLB is going to use a computer to decide all standings tiebreakers, no matter if they are for a division crown or a wild card spot, as they did last year with the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets in the NL East. Both teams won 101 games. I know that the Braves stormed back from 10 1/2 behind in June to capture this division, and swept the Mets in the second to last series of the season, but there is just something wrong with the system if they can’t play an extra match to decide the ultimate champion after 162 games.

This isn’t the NFL where you play less than 20 contests in the regular season. If you tie for a division or wild card spot after 162 matches, then settle it where it should be settled…On the field. It’s never been an issue in the past, so why is it one now?

Worth noting: The winner of last year’s NL East division also received a BYE to the NLDS. New York ended up finishing second to Atlanta because the Braves had the better Head-to-Head record (10-9). The Mets lost the Best-of-3 Wild Card Series to the Padres.

I understand that baseball wanted to expand its playoff field to 12 teams and make the Wild Card Round a Best-of-3 instead of a one-game, winner-moves-on situation as they have had since 2012. I was all for that, but can’t wrap my mind around why it is such an issue now for two teams tied for an important playoff spot, to play just one more time the day after the season ends. The playoffs never start on the Monday after the regular season ends. Have the game then.

It’s about memories. There apparently will be no more Bucky Dent moments, like we had in 1978 with the AL East Tiebreaker between the Yankees and Red Sox, or the Colorado Rockies’, Matt Holliday, sliding home on a close call at the plate to win the 2007 wild card tiebreaker game, 9-8, over the San Diego Padres. MLB is telling us that those things don’t matter anymore. That somehow fans don’t want to see a game 163? Nonsense, and about as aggravating as it gets for me.

‘THE MANFRED MAN’ STAYS FOR EXTRAS

Aggravation Scale: 9

Maybe I’m being a little too harsh in my rating and too old school in my thinking, but for Rob Manfred to say that this rule and others were not going to be permanent in 2021, and then, suddenly, they stayed put in 2022 because of the season starting late over labor disputes, and now in 2023 staying indefinitely, is sad to see. The lame theory that games could become never-ending marathons, is the main reason that the league has decided to keep the rule that a baserunner will start on second base in extra innings during the regular season.

Sure, Rob.

I don’t want to spend too long on this because the thought of it reminds me that the season is about to start and every game over the last few years that has gone to extra innings during the regular season, has made me cringe because it’s a flat out unnecessary prop by MLB to create action unnaturally so that the players and fans aren’t at the park for hours on end. I thought the pitch clock was going to help with that this year, but I guess that is not enough. Read on for more on the pitch clock later.

Here is a breakdown from 2019 about extra innings games courtesy of fangraphs.com. I’m going to give the main numbers and you decide if these pre-2020 games were such a big deal that they needed to change the system.

2019:

Regular Season Games Played: 2,429

Extra Innings Games: 208 (8.6% of all games played)

Extra Innings Games ending in the 10th inning: 95

Extra Innings Games ending in the 11th inning or later: 113, with 57 of those ending in the 11th. This leaves 56 games that went to the 12th inning or longer.

Final Extra Innings Number to think about: 97.7% of all games in Major League Baseball ended in the 11th inning or earlier.

New York Yankees TV play-by-play announcer, Michael Kay, visited the ‘First Take’ set on ESPN earlier this month and was asked about the new rules. I agree with him completely on his first take. Just watch the first minute and he explains why the extra-inning rule is not needed.

It goes back to what you as a fan will remember after watching the game. If it goes 20 innings, you will never forget it, because that is rare air. With the new rules, I don’t ever see us talking about that classic extra-inning game again, unless it’s in the playoffs. I still remember vividly last year’s two classic postseason extra-inning games.

There was the Cleveland versus Tampa Bay Game 2, 15th inning walk-off homer by Oscar Gonzalez to win the series for the Guardians, followed by the Houston and Seattle classic Game 3, settled by a Jeremy Pena solo homer in the 18th. Both games were memorable and won naturally without the gimmicks we now see during the regular season.

In fairness, this is just one fan’s opinion. Many like the current extra-inning rule and that is fine. Personally, I would have settled for somewhere in the middle. Maybe let the game play out for 12 innings and then starting in the 13th, go with a runner starting on second base.

PITCH CLOCK

Aggravation Scale: 5

The ‘Game 163’ and ‘Manfred Man’ aggravations were the two I needed to rant about. I apologize for going on and on about them, but for the next four lesser aggravations, I’ll keep them as short as I can.

I’m on the fence with the pitch clock rule until we get to see it in action during meaningful moments for a few months. It could end up being great or it could ruin a lot of close game endings. What we know for sure is that as of Sunday, March 19th, the average spring training game this season has been 26 minutes less than the average spring contest in 2022. The main purpose of the clock seems to be doing its job, which is to keep the game moving. Give it a good pace without all the in-between stuff we’ve always dealt with. I get that part of it.

The pitch clock rule in its most basic form is as follows: Pitchers have 15 seconds to make a pitch with the bases empty and 20 seconds if men are on. If they fail to do so, there will be an automatic ball added to the count. As for the batters, they will need to be in the box by the eight-second mark or there will be an automatic strike added to the count.

It sounds straightforward, but if I’m an umpire, I’m taking all the migraine meds I can before and after each game, because I think, especially once games become meaningful in the regular season, they are going to be using their discretion quite often to decide many of these penalties. It’s not going to be an obvious call all the time. The pitcher has to begin his motion before the clock runs out and the umpires have to be watching. Being tenths of a second late could lead to a penalty as we’ve seen in spring training. Players, managers, umps, and fans are going to get upset. At the very least, it will be entertaining to watch.

There is a whole lot more to the clock and when it begins, who gets breaks, including catchers and fielders if they have to run a long way to make a play. Umps will have to keep track of how many timeouts each batter has used. As an example of how complicated this is, just read the following rule. I think your head will spin. At least mine did on the first read-through.

That is my overall point with the clock. If the rules are that complicated on paper, then they probably will be for the players and umps trying to follow them on the field of play. Make it simple. Unfortunately, that is not what MLB is choosing to do. From everything I have read, all of these on-field rules can be tweaked during the season. We’ll see what happens. I’m sticking in the middle with a 5 on the scale right now with this one, but the number could and probably will fluctuate throughout the season.

SHIFT BANS

Aggravation Scale: 2

This is a simple-sounding rule: At the time a pitch is thrown, all four infielders are required to be on the infield dirt or infield grass with two on each side of second base.

In other words, the game is going to look more aesthetically pleasing to the eye. There will be more knocks from the left side of the plate by pull hitters and this should create a lot of action around the bases with more non-homer hits.

Of course, there have been teams already trying the left fielder to center field spot while the center fielder moves into shallow right field, literally leaving the entire left side of the outfield open for business. Look, it’s already bad enough that most players don’t know how to bunt properly. It’s pretty lame that certain lefties weren’t able to adjust to the crazy shifts we have been seeing for years now, by going oppo.

In the end, if this rule doesn’t help those players who struggle to hit the ball the other way, and if some teams place their center fielder in shallow right, I’m not going to whine if that batter can’t figure out how to bloop it over the third baseman’s head for an easy double at the minimum. The only reason this is a 2 on my scale and not a 0 is that it never should have come to the point where a professional player can’t hit to the other side of the field once in a while.

PICKOFF LIMITS

Aggravation Scale: 1

According to this rule, pitchers can only disengage from the pitching rubber to attempt a pickoff throw or for a timeout. The pitcher will get a maximum of two disengagements per plate appearance unless the third disengagement is a successful pickoff move. If not, it’s an automatic balk.

I like this rule. If it creates more excitement on the base paths, I’m all for it. This could be a fun cat-and-mouse game to watch between even a below-average runner and the pitcher. What television broadcasts could do now, is always have a camera showing first base on the top right of your screen, so that you can watch the large leads that many baserunners are bound to take. They’ll show it once in a while in a big situation or when there’s high potential for some action, but if there was ever a time to keep that camera rolling for the viewing audience at all times with a man on first, this would be it.

LARGER BASES

Aggravation Scale: 0

Bases are going from 15 to 18 inches. That’s a big difference in a game of inches. It doesn’t bother me one bit if it means more stolen base attempts and fewer injuries. I will say that if more baserunners chose not to slide head first, then there would be far fewer jammed fingers and other upper-body injuries, and this likely would never have happened. I guess that is why I saw Mookie Betts wearing his Jordan brand oven mitt during the WBC Championship. He used it with the Dodgers last season as well.

BONUS SEVENTH RULE: POSITION PLAYERS AND PITCHING

Aggravation Level: 0

The new rule only allows position players to pitch in these scenarios:

• Extra-innings

• In the 9th inning, if the leading team is winning by 10 or more runs

• In any inning, if the losing team is behind by eight or more runs

The only part of this rule that stuck out to me, and also caused a bit of a nauseous feeling in my stomach, was the two words “Extra-Innings” because it reminded me about Rule #2 on my ‘Aggravation List’. I don’t want to go to bed aggravated, which is why I am ending this now.

If you got this far, thanks for reading. Tomorrow: AL EAST PREDICTIONS.

Subscribe now

FROM THIS BASEBALL FAN’S PERSPECTIVE, THE WBC WAS MORE EXCITING THAN I THOUGHT IT WOULD BE

Anyone who has been following my WBC updates knows that going in I had never taken the event seriously. I told you that I would be watching as much of this tournament as possible and would give it a fair shake. Overall, I felt I saw enough of it to understand that from an on-field excitement level, this was a fantastic Classic from start to finish.

I was contemplating writing my final WBC update immediately after the Championship game between Japan and the U.S. last night. Instead, I decided to let the result and all that I have witnessed, marinate overnight and into today. I went for a drive this afternoon, with the windows down (beautiful day), and thought about last night’s game, while listening to a variety of opinions on the radio from around the baseball world.

The general consensus that I have heard is that it was the best WBC yet, filled with drama, packed stadiums, and pretty solid worldwide TV ratings for some of the games. From just the Quarterfinals on, we saw three great conclusions, including last night with Shohei Ohtani striking out Mike Trout to end the game and give Japan another Classic Championship.

I’m sure most of you who have been following the tournament already have seen the clips below. However, since I haven’t posted an update in a week, I’ll share the three big late-game moments from the single-elimination rounds.

QUARTERFINALS-USA VS. VENEZUELA. Trea Turner’s grand slam in the eighth to give the U.S. a two-run lead and eventual victory.

SEMIFINALS-JAPAN VS. MEXICO. Munetaka Murakami’s walk-off two-run double carried Japan into the Finals.

CHAMPIONSHIP-JAPAN VS. USA. You’ve probably seen it at least 10 times today, but here it is again. Ohtani vs. Trout. The Angels teammates squaring off with the game on the line. This was the “What if this matchup happens?” talk before the tournament even began. The fans got what they wanted.

What impressed me the most with Ohtani was something I think we all understand as nothing short of remarkable. Watching him run back and forth between the dugout and bullpen so he could warm up as a relief pitcher, but also be ready to hit before his relief appearance in the ninth inning, was cool to witness, and probably something we’ll only watch a handful of times in our lives.

In the end, Japan’s manager, Hideki Kuriyama, made all of the right choices, including not starting Yu Darvish, the man many thought would begin this game on the mound. He instead went with Shoto Imanaga, who didn’t pitch great, giving up four hits and a run over two innings, but it all led to a bullpen that the U.S. hitters couldn’t touch until, go figure, Yu Darvish came on in relief and gave up a solo shot to Kyle Schwarber in the top of the eighth. Then ‘Shotime’ came in to close the game in the ninth and the rest is history.

A SCORING QUESTION TO THINK ABOUT

Back to Imanaga for a moment. Seeing the official boxscore after the game, reminded me again, as it has this entire tournament, of one interesting statistic that I want to touch on. I’ve never understood in both the WBC and MLB spring training, why a starting pitcher can qualify for a Win without pitching for a minimum of five innings, which is the MLB regular season and postseason rule. I can guess why, but I don’t like it, because it’s silly to think that if I saw that a starting pitcher in spring training or the WBC was 5-0 in five starts, I would instinctually assume he pitched at least five innings, and likely threw well in most of those games. Why then is it different for this and the exhibition season?

I understand that in this tournament and preseason baseball, with the pitch count restrictions and the time of year that it is, the likelihood of a starter getting five innings of work in until, maybe, the last week of camp, is minuscule. But why not just give the Win to the relief pitcher, who by official MLB rules, should get the Win when the SP doesn’t go five?

Anyway, I got off track here, but if someone reading this knows the actual MLB rulebook reasoning behind why a starting pitcher, to qualify for a Win, is scored differently depending on the time of year and the event, let me know.

PRAISE FOR JAPAN

At the end of this post, I’ll go over my final “broken bracket” prediction breakdown if you want to call it that. I told you in my predictions that I had Japan losing to the D.R., but I was back and forth between them, finally going with the team in the Dominican, which I thought was the strongest overall squad. Considering they didn’t even make it to the Quarterfinals, I can’t say that I’m an expert predictor of the WBC yet. However, there is still 2026 and according to Commissioner Rob, the tourney will be back again.

To Japan. I want to say thank you for showing up every game and playing hard, fundamentally sound baseball for all the world to see. Not only do most of the Japanese players seem to have quick hands when they swing and fast legs when they run, but they hustle on every play, slide feet first, and do it efficiently…Oh, and God forbid if we see this in Major League Baseball, but they know how to lay down a bunt in a big situation.

Case in point, in the Semifinals versus Mexico, in the top of the eighth, down 5-3 with two men on and no outs, Sosuke Genda, laid down a two-strike sacrifice bunt, moving runners to second and third. That bunt led to a run to make it 5-4, and then the eventual walk-off hit by Murakami in the ninth won the game 6-5. If you watched that entire at-bat, Genda was showing bunt the whole time, and despite fouling off a couple of balls, he stuck to what he does well and delivered when the team needed it. He has 115 sac bunts in his six-year NPB career.

CALLOUT TO THE USA

I want to give you a list of 11 names in no particular order. After reading the names, I think you will figure out where I’m going with this.

1. Corbin Burnes *Bakersfield, California

2. Gerrit Cole *Newport Beach, California

3. Brandon Woodruff *Tupelo, Mississippi

4. Max Scherzer *St. Louis, Missouri

5. Justin Verlander *Manakin Sabot, Virginia

6. Zack Wheeler *Smyrna, Georgia

7. Aaron Nola *Baton Rouge, Louisiana

8. Shane Bieber *Orange, California

9. Max Fried *Santa Monica, California

10. Jacob deGrom *DeLand, Florida

11. Carlos Rodon *Miami, Florida

Did you figure it out?

If not, here’s the final answer to solving the puzzle: The above names are all United States-born players considered over the past few years to be Top 20 starting pitchers in Major League Baseball at one point or another. Going into this season, all of them are on most Top 20 lists. Not one of them pitched in the WBC. Why?

For me, this goes back to my initial thoughts about this tournament before I started watching. It’s a nice preseason event for all fans worldwide to enjoy a good mix of high-caliber players competing for the ultimate goal of winning the WBC Championship as Japan did last night against the USA. In fairness, scratch the bottom two names off the list (deGrom and Rodon) since one of them hasn’t pitched more than 100 innings in a season in three years and is, realistically, the best chance the Texas Rangers have at staying in any kind of playoff race. Jacob has to be healthy, and we all know that for the rest of his career, health is probably going to be a question mark every single season. As for Rodon, he’s hurt and gets a break.

Take those two out, and you still have nine of the best starting pitchers in Major League Baseball not representing the U.S. I highly doubt that any of them were not asked if they wanted to play. I am sure some of their MLB affiliates were against them going to the WBC, but come on, how is it that for the Championship match, the best the USA can throw out there to start a game, is Merrill Kelly of the Arizona Diamondbacks?

Kelly is a solid pitcher. He threw 200 innings last year and went 13-8 with a 3.37 ERA and a respectable 1.13 WHIP, but he’s not on the same level as the players mentioned above. The entire game could have gone differently if there was an upper-tier ace going for the U.S. at the beginning.

Somehow in the next WBC (and I have no doubts that there will be a different starting pitcher list to choose from by then) the USA has to get at least two legit MLB aces to help them win this event. Even if they win without true aces, what is that saying to us as fans who are trying to take this event at face value? I want to believe that all of the teams are putting out their best or at least, close to the best, teams they can assemble for a two-week tournament every four years. I don’t think it is asking too much of the players to give a hoot in March twice a decade.

I understand Clayton Kershaw and Nestor Cortes were late scratches for two different reasons, but why can’t they be replaced with a Gerrit Cole and a younger pitcher like Corbin Burnes? I’ll leave it at that.

QUARTERFINALS TO CHAMPIONSHIP PREDICTIONS

WHERE I WAS RIGHT

This is a stretch, but I’m looking for any positive note from my predictions that I can bring to the 2026 WBC when I try to guess who advances and who goes home in four years. I was correct about Japan beating the USA, but it was in the wrong round. I had Japan winning in the Semis and, as mentioned earlier, losing to the Dominican Republic in the Championship game. However, I called Japan getting to the Finals, so I’ll take one measly point for that.

WHERE I WAS WRONG

Just about everywhere else. Despite having the U.S. and Japan making the Semis, it was Korea and the Dominican Republic that destroyed all of my WBC bracket pride. Neither got to the Quarters and both were “supposed to be” in the Semis.

I said in my previous WBC update the following: “I’m going to predict that my college hoops bracket is a little better than what I’ve shown in the World Baseball Classic. If not, this is going to be the worst March of my life.” Folks, this turned out to be the worst March of my life.

I can at least tell people that I correctly predicted two of the Final Four teams on my first attempt with the WBC Bracket Challenge…if there is such a thing. I cannot, unfortunately, say that about my 30th or so try at filling out a March Madness bracket. After two rounds, I lost three Final Four teams (Arizona, Kansas, Purdue), including my two finalists (Kansas and Purdue). In the end, I was wrong about my prediction of being better. I was much worse.

UP NEXT

With the WBC now over, my focus is fully on the MLB season starting next week. March 30th is coming fast, and starting today (Wednesday, March 22nd), I should be writing most days from this point forward to the end of the MLB season. For the next week, the plan is:

Thursday, March 23rd: MLB Rule Changes Discussion. I will be listing six new rule changes, some of which we’ve already had since 2020, but they are now permanent for the foreseeable future. I am going to list them in order from most aggravating to least aggravating and give you all of the reasons why.

Friday, March 24th: More predictions begin. I know what you’re thinking, “If this guy predicts as poorly as he has with the WBC and March Madness, then what’s the point?” I think if I were in your shoes reading what I’ve written so far, I’d ask the same thing. Nonetheless, I will give it a shot and go division-by-division and predict 1-5 where each team will finish and the reasons. We’re starting with the AL EAST PREDICTIONS on this day.

Saturday, March 25th: From the AL East, we start our travels westward for the AL CENTRAL PREDICTIONS.

Sunday, March 26th: AL WEST PREDICTIONS.

Monday, March 27th: Staying in the West before heading back east. NL WEST PREDICTIONS.

Tuesday, March 28th: NL CENTRAL PREDICTIONS and NL EAST PREDICTIONS. Two for one deal.

Wednesday, March 29th: PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS. Finally, after I spend hours digesting these teams and predicting where they’ll finish in each division, I will then give you my 12 playoff teams, my AL and NL Championship predictions, as well as the World Series winner.

I’ll be bold one more time and say, “I predict my third set of predictions in March will be better than the previous two.” In other words, maybe I actually will correctly predict who is standing at the end of the World Series. Unfortunately, my confidence has been shaken thanks to the WBC and March Madness.

I will talk to you all tomorrow. Enjoy the rest of the day.

Subscribe now

PREDICTION FALLOUT

There goes my Champ. I was tuned in last night to the Dominican Republic vs. Puerto Rico game, with the winner moving on and the loser going home. Puerto Rico scored four runs in the third inning and never looked back, taking it by a final score of 5-2. The D.R. has all but destroyed my bracket going forward.

However, with big wins, sometimes there is a cost. I watched the Mets’ dominant closer, Edwin Díaz, jog in with his usual swag from the bullpen to close the game in the ninth for Puerto Rico, with Timmy Trumpet’s ‘Narco’ blaring in the background. He looked as dominant as he did in 2022, striking out, in succession, Ketel Marte, Jean Segura, and Teoscar Hernandez. As I was about to flip to the USA/Columbia game, I saw players gathered around someone sitting on the grass. Sure enough, it was Díaz.

Apparently, there was too much bunny hopping going on in celebration and he came down awkwardly and hurt his knee. He was helped off of the field by teammates before being placed in a wheelchair. For his sake, and the Mets’ sake, hopefully, it looked worse than it is, but I am going to guess that he will be out for a while. There is no official word yet on the severity of his injury.

POOLS C AND D. WHERE I WAS RIGHT AND WHERE I WAS WRONG

POOL C PREDICTION:

1st: USA (Wrong) 2nd: Mexico (Wrong)

WHERE I WAS RIGHT

If fewer points were awarded for predicting the correct two teams to advance to the Quarterfinals, but in the incorrect order, then I’d have something here. The USA and Mexico both advanced with 3-1 records, but because Mexico defeated the U.S. in their lone matchup, Tiebreaker #1 (Head-to-Head record) went in their favor and they officially won Pool C. The way my picks are going, I’ll take whatever I can get.

WHERE I WAS WRONG

Basically, copy and paste what I wrote under ‘WHERE I WAS RIGHT’. Right teams, but wrong order.

POOL D PREDICTION:

1st: Dominican Republic (Way wrong) 2nd: Venezuela (Wrong)

WHERE I WAS RIGHT

I’ll take half a point for predicting Venezuela to move on to the next round. I’ll take another 1/2 point for saying that the USA will play Venezuela in the Quarters, despite their finishing order being the opposite of my guess. As seen, I had the U.S. as the Pool C winner and Venezuela as the Pool D runner-up.

WHERE I WAS WRONG

Now to the Dominican team. Give me anything from 0 to -100 for a score. It doesn’t really matter at this point. My bracket is officially busted. The D.R. finished Pool D in third place with a 2-2 record. In their must-win game against Puerto Rico last night, they had only six hits. This just goes to show how similar this tournament is to March Madness. Anything can happen and pretty much everything I didn’t predict, has happened.

To think that the Men’s NCAA Tournament starts today, and the WBC was supposed to be my “easy” warmup round before it gets difficult. I’m going to predict that my college hoops bracket is a little better than what I’ve shown in the World Baseball Classic. If not, this is going to be the worst March of my life.

UP NEXT FOR POOLS C AND D

Friday: Mexico (Pool C winner) versus Puerto Rico (Pool D runner-up)

Saturday: Venezuela (Pool D winner) versus USA (Pool C runner-up)

I don’t think I’m worthy enough to pick these games at this point. One of the matchups I can still, technically, score points with, seeing as I had the U.S. defeating Venezuela. I won’t cheat and change that one. The U.S. wins. As far as Mexico and Puerto Rico? Give me Mexico.

QUARTERFINALS UPDATE

We have two teams advancing to the Semifinals. Yesterday, Cuba defeated Australia, 4-3, in their Quarterfinal match. I didn’t have either team going to the Semis, but even when I picked again for fun, I missed that one as well. I said in my last update, that I would take Australia. Wrong again.

The only team left that I feel good about is Japan. As I am writing this, their game against Italy is on in the background. It just ended with another dominant performance by the Pool B winner. Japan won 9-3 and moves on to the Semifinals.

I’ll do a final WBC update on Wednesday. The Championship game is on Tuesday. Since the only teams I have left in my Final Four are Japan and the U.S., I will make one last prediction….Japan over the USA in the Finals.

Next week I will also be focused on the upcoming MLB season. I have some thoughts on the rule changes. Also coming will be my division-by-division preseason predictions. Stay tuned for all that and more. Until then, enjoy the rest of the WBC, and if you’re a college hoops fan, good luck with your March Madness bracket.

FIRST REACTIONS

Pools A and B of the World Baseball Classic are complete. Last Tuesday I posted my predictions and mentioned that I haven’t taken the tournament seriously in the past for various reasons, but that this year I would tune in when I could and watch the action unfold. I admit that I haven’t been disappointed as far as the entertainment value goes. The intensity levels are higher than I expected, both in the stands and on the field, which has made watching the games that much more enjoyable, although sometimes too much of a good thing, can be a tad annoying.

Get loud, play your horns, dance, and celebrate, but please, if I had one request going forward for the crowds it would be…Pick your spots better. The consistent, nonstop noise and passion from the stands taking place during just about every moment in some of these games, I find to be a bit too much. When there has been a big play, I felt no difference in crowd energy at times between that and a routine pop-up to short in the first inning. Plus the fact that those ridiculous horns never stop and remind me too much of being stuck in city traffic during rush hour. If this was going on in the big leagues for an entire season, I’d probably have to watch with the mute button on in much the same way that I do when Bill Walton is commentating during a Pac-12 college basketball game. It can be a very pleasant experience to go silent after a few minutes of listening to the ‘Big Red-Head’.

Taichung certainly knows how to throw a party. Just look at the clip below of the Chinese Taipei cheerleaders doing all they can to keep the fans excited for the entire game. It seemed to never stop.

As far as the intensity level of the players, that for me is a different story than the fans. You can feel the urgency throughout the games in each dugout after every double play, single up the middle, and always after a run is scored. Knowing the stakes, I can respect that. One of my favorite moments so far was during Day 1 of Pool D play in a very exciting matchup between Venezuela and the Dominican Republic. Both teams knew the stakes and understood that they were the pre-tournament favorites to advance to the next round. This was the game that finally made me realize how important this event is to the participants.

In the top of the eighth, José Quijada of Venezuela, who was having issues for the entire inning keeping his jersey buttoned up, faced Francisco Mejía with two men on and a 4-1 lead. The clip speaks for itself.

The importance of each game is high. Just ask Panama, Chinese Taipei, and the underachieving Netherlands how the total amount of runs allowed can hurt your team. Pool A ended in a five-way tie with all teams going 2-2. Tiebreaker #1 (Head-to-Head record) could not be used and, therefore, Tiebreaker #2 (fewest runs allowed, divided by the number of defensive outs recorded) decided it. Cuba and Italy are thankful for that mathematical equation, as they moved on to the Quarterfinals.

POOLS A AND B. WHERE I WAS RIGHT AND WHERE I WAS WRONG

Now to the dreaded prediction update. Out of the four teams that have advanced, only two of them helped my bracket.

POOL A PREDICTION:

1st: Cuba (Correct *thanks to Tiebreaker #2) 2nd: Netherlands (Wrong)

WHERE I WAS RIGHT

Picking Cuba to finish in first place felt good until their opening loss to the Netherlands, 4-2. When they followed that game up with another L at the hands of Italy, 6-3, I thought they were done and going home. They won their next two games and found a way to advance thanks to Tiebreaker #2. I got lucky here.

WHERE I WAS WRONG

Well, so much for saying that ‘The Dark Knight’ won’t be carrying his Italy squad far. Matt Harvey pitched seven innings total in two games and allowed just one earned run. If he pitched like that in 2021 for the Orioles, he’d still, likely, have a job in the majors. Maybe he will get some calls if he keeps going like this. Italy, like Cuba, had a good enough ‘runs allowed per defensive outs recorded percentage’ (.157), to advance with the second tiebreaker and finish as the runner-up.

I also said that whoever wins the Netherlands versus Cuba opening game would win this group. I felt confident that both teams would get to the Semis. The Netherlands won the game and didn’t even finish in second place. They are out. I was wrong.

POOL B PREDICTION:

1st: Japan (Correct) 2nd: Korea (Wrong)

WHERE I WAS RIGHT

With home-field advantage, a fantastic pitching staff, and a high-quality lineup all working in their favor, Japan did what many thought they would and finished 4-0 in pool play. My confidence in Japan has gone up after recording (Side note: 6 a.m. is a bit early for me to start watching baseball) and watching their game in full against Korea on Friday. I went back and forth and predicted that they will lose in the Championship game to the D.R. knowing full well their capability to beat any team handily. If I had to do it over, I might have picked Japan in that matchup after watching them play.

WHERE I WAS WRONG

Korea hurt me. My dark horse team to win the WBC is out of the tournament. Their opening surprise loss to Australia, 8-7, put a lot of pressure on a team with high expectations. Despite scoring the first three runs of the game the following day against Japan, they were still defeated 13-4 in the end. That put Korea at 0-2. They did win their next two games, including a 22-2 rout over China, even with the knowledge that they were officially eliminated from moving on before the game began. The ‘Mercy Rule’ was put in place after the fifth inning. I give the Korean team credit for still playing hard when many teams would have given a half-hearted effort in that same situation.

UP NEXT FOR POOLS A AND B

Wednesday: Cuba (Pool A winner) versus Australia (Pool B runner-up)

Thursday: Japan (Pool B winner) versus Italy (Pool A runner-up)

It’s all single-elimination from here on out for these four teams. My bracket had Korea beating Cuba in the Wednesday game. Therefore, no points will be available for me in that one. For fun, I’ll ride the Australian momentum and predict they move on to the Semifinals with Japan.

POOLS C AND D STILL GOING

I will be back with an update on Thursday. By that point, Pools C and D will have concluded and the Semi-finalists for A and B will be determined. As of now, I could still get all four of my C and D predictions correct, but if I learned anything at all from the first part of this tournament, it would be to avoid putting money on my picks.

Enjoy the next few days of games.

A BRIEF BRIEFING ABOUT MARCH IN THE NORTHEAST

Those who know me well, understand that I consider March to be a very special time of the year.  Friends and family realize that despite baseball being my favorite year-round sport, it is one event, the Men’s College Basketball Championship Tournament, aka ‘March Madness’, that gets me the most excited.  The anticipation of Selection Sunday, followed by filling out a bracket and entering a few pools, and then that first Thursday with 16 games, followed by another 16 on Friday.  There is nothing like it, whether you love college basketball or not.  Usually, anyone who enters an office pool instantly becomes captivated by the event, at least in my experience.

March is also about spring training and generally, from year to year, I’ll watch a few exhibition games just to get that sense of what is to come on opening day.  I find March Madness is a perfect segue into baseball and by the time opening day rolls around, the Final Four is generally all that is left to be decided.  Those of us that live in the northeast also know that the MLB season marks the true beginning of spring in our hearts, despite the fact that the weather around here usually doesn’t begin to change until mid-April at the earliest.

In 2006, the World Baseball Classic was added to the mix of March sporting events.  The truth is, I’ve never really been very interested in the tournament.  I’ve always felt that in comparison to other similarly styled events with Pool Play formats, such as the World Cup in soccer and many sporting events in the Olympics, those tend to bring the best of the best from each country to compete.  There is a genuine pride factor in the World Baseball Classic I’ve assumed is missing because a lot of the big-name MLB players do not always participate in the event, usually because they were more concerned about spring training and getting ready for the six-month regular season ahead.  Some MLB teams have also preferred that certain players not participate due to the potential injury risk.  Although, in this day and age, a player can walk down the clubhouse steps and be out until the All-Star break.  I don’t buy into the “risk factor” anymore.

Whatever the reasons are, until this year, I’ve placed the WBC on a level somewhere slightly above one of America’s four major sports’ All-Star games and quite a few levels below tournaments such as the World Cup.  I’ll admit, after seeing highlights of the most recent NBA All-Star joke of a game, I will put the WBC on a level much higher than that and the NFL’s Pro Bowl flag football shenanigans.  

This year, I plan to put my predispositions about this event aside until it’s over. I’m going to give it an honest go and save my hot takes for after the event when I can at least say that I gave it a shot.   I’ll be following games closely and watching when I can. The Classic starts tonight at 11 p.m. eastern and I’ve psyched myself up to watch.

BASICS TO KNOW ABOUT THE WORLD BASEBALL CLASSIC

PAST CHAMPIONS

2006: Japan

2009: Japan

2013: Dominican Republic

2017: United States

WHAT’S NEW THIS YEAR

The Classic is now a 20-team event, up from 16 in previous years.  The Czech Republic, Great Britain, Nicaragua, and Panama are the four new additions.

THE FORMAT

-There are four pools with five teams in each.  

-Every team plays each other one time within their respective pool.  

-The top two teams by record in each pool move onto the single-elimination rounds beginning with the Quarterfinals.  If teams have the same record after four games, then Tiebreaker #1 will be Head-to-Head results.  For complete details on the WBC format and where and when to watch the games, click here.

THE POOLS

POOL A

Chinese Taipei

Cuba

Italy

Netherlands

Panama

POOL B

Australia

China

Czech Republic

Japan

South Korea

POOL C

Canada

Columbia

Great Britain

Mexico

USA

POOL D

Dominican Republic

Israel

Nicaragua

Puerto Rico

Venezuela

FIRST-TIME WBC PREDICTIONS

Since this is March and the bracket-picking season begins in just over a week, I figure why not warm up with some 2023 World Baseball Classic predictions?  As I mentioned, I’m more in tune with the tournament this time around and I did my due diligence and spent a couple of hours going through the rosters and checking the latest updates, trying to get a feel for some of the lesser-known teams.  As interesting as that was, for me it’s pretty cut-and-dry as far as which two teams “should” come out of each pool.  I found the more difficult part was predicting which teams move forward in the single-elimination tourney.  

Part of me wanted to wait until the Quarterfinals to make my next predictions, but then I realized that the real challenge would be filling in the winners for the entire tournament before it begins.  If my Champion doesn’t get out of pool play, then so be it.  Trust me, if it’s going to be anything like my March Madness brackets of late, then I’m likely in trouble here.  Below are my picks and reasons behind each.  

POOL A

1st: Cuba

2nd: Netherlands

Picking the two Pool A representatives for the next round was pretty easy.  Both teams have some good offensive players and despite neither having what I consider a dominant pitching staff, they should have enough overall talent to take advantage of the other three teams in this region.  I mean, c’mon now, Italy has a couple of solid MLB hitters and also the young up-and-coming, Vinnie Pasquantino of the Royals, but has anyone looked at who is leading their pitching staff?  If you have, then you know it’s ‘The Dark Knight’, the one-time, hopeful savior of the New York Metropolitans, Matt Harvey.   It didn’t work for the Mets then and it sure as hell isn’t working for Italy now.  Bye-bye Italy and the other two hopefuls in this pool as well.

I will say, the most difficult decision I had to make in this pool was trying to decide who finishes #1 between Cuba and the Netherlands.  The opening game of the Classic is between these two teams tonight.  I predict the winner of tonight’s matchup wins the group.  

POOL B

1st: Japan

2nd: Korea

I didn’t have to do much research here to know that China, the Czech Republic, and Australia are considered three of the lowest-ranked teams in this event, while Japan and Korea are both capable of winning the Championship.  Therefore, those two teams get the auto-bid to the next round in my book.  If I’m wrong on this, I’ll be shocked.  However, it is March and I don’t feel confident about many predictions I make this time of year.

Where I did spend some time thinking was once again, as with Pool A, trying to decide who ultimately is #1 after four games.  Both teams should advance, but which gets the higher seed in the next round?  It came down to overall balance for me.  

Japan has good hitting, a great starting pitching staff (Four legit aces) and bullpen (By NPB standards this is about as good as it gets).  The team that Japan is fielding is an All-Star squad.  

Korea has some fun players to watch, including soon to be posted for MLB teams after the 2023 season, Jung-Hoo Lee, aka, ‘The Grandson of the Wind’.  They also have MLB players Tommy Edman and Ha-Seong Kim in the lineup.

Overall, Japan has the depth of the pitching staff combined with the offensive talent (Shohei Ohtani and the new NPB single-season homerun king, Munetaka Murakami), as well as having home-field advantage in this round. They are playing in Tokyo and that ought to be enough to come out on top.

POOL C

1st: USA

2nd: Mexico

I love me some Freddie Freeman.  He could have joined forces with the already stacked United States team, but instead decided to play for Canada. Props to him for trying.  In the end, he won’t be enough to bring Canada to the next round.  The same I will say for Columbia.  Yes, they have a few solid MLB players and a pitching staff led by Jose Quintana and Julio Teheran, but that’s not scaring any opposing offenses.

 As I was making my picks, I kept noticing the same thing.  The teams without at least one true ace on the mound, could be in trouble.  Even team USA, despite having an incredibly deep offensive club that they will be mixing and matching with throughout this tournament, has a mediocre starting pitching staff at best.  I think not having Clayton Kershaw (Insurance Claim issue) and Nestor Cortes (Hamstring issue) will ultimately come back to bite this team, but not in pool play.  Their bullpen is plenty capable and will be needed to pitch well and often.

Mexico has some good bats at the top of the order and their staff is led by Julio Urías, followed by a few other capable starting pitchers behind him.  With Cardinals closer, Giovanny Gallegos closing games, this team should advance to the next round. 

POOL D

1st: Dominican Republic

2nd: Venezuela

Of the four pools, this was the only one that I went back and forth between with the second-place finishers.  Obviously, the Dominican Republic team is heavily favored and their lineup, much like the United States, is loaded top to bottom.  Add to that their pitching depth, with Cy Young award winner, Sandy Alcantara, and a bullpen deep with talent, I don’t think they lose a game in this round.  

The bigger question for me was who gets the #2 spot between Venezuela and Puerto Rico.  Ultimately, I chose Venezuela because their lineup on paper is deeper with Jose Altuve, Ronald Acuńa, and Luis Arraez leading the charge.  Puerto Rico is led by Francisco Lindor.  There are some capable bats in this lineup to support him, but not enough.  

Pitching-wise; advantage Venezuela as well.  Marcus Stroman may have won the MVP for the U.S. team in 2017, but he won’t be doing the same this time around with Puerto Rico.  

SINGLE-ELIMINATION ROUNDS

Based on the pool picks I made and the single-elimination format, the following would be the Quarterfinals matchups if all of my picks are accurate.  I will put my confidence meter at about a 7 of a possible 10 that the winner and runner-ups finish in my predicted order.  The meter goes up to a 9 as far as my confidence level in the eight teams I picked getting to the Quarterfinals, even if they end up being in the wrong order.  These clubs seem to me to be the best equipped for a run at the WBC Title.

Quarterfinals Game 1

Pool A winner: Cuba vs. Pool B runner-up: Korea

I just have one of those good feelings about Korea.  Picking Korea for me is kind of like picking that talented 5 or 6 seed in March Madness to make a run at the Final Four.  They are solid in all departments and in one game I like their chances.

Winner: Korea

Quarterfinals Game 2

Pool B winner: Japan vs. Pool A runner-up: Netherlands

Yes, the Netherlands has Xander Bogaerts.  However, after him, there isn’t anyone who I’d be overly worried about if I was managing Japan.  Add to this that their pitching staff as a whole is not very strong.  I don’t like this matchup at all for the Netherlands and I am going to confidently predict that one of Japan’s four aces (either Ohtani, Yu Darvish, Roki Sasaki, or Yoshinobu Yamamoto) will take care of business.

Winner: Japan

Quarterfinals Game 3

Pool D winner: Dominican Republic vs. Pool C runner-up: Mexico

You might think I am confident with this pick, but Mexico, if the matchup is right, could have the pitching advantage in this one.  I would guess that if Mexico does advance this far, Julío Urías will be taking the hill to start this one.  He has as good a chance as any pitcher in this event to carry a team deep into the tournament.  In the end, however, when your lineup top to bottom consists of players like Julio Rodriguez, Juan Soto, Rafael Devers, Manny Machado, and many more imposing bats, I don’t even think Urías will make easy work of them.  The Dominican Republic also has too much firepower and depth in the pen. 

Winner: Dominican Republic

Quarterfinals Game 4

Pool C winner: USA vs. Pool D runner-up: Venezuela

This should be fun.  I am very much looking forward to this potential matchup.  The Venezuelan lineup is good, in fact, I would say it is great at the top.  The problem for Venezuela is that the USA lineup is great from top to bottom.  Advantage USA with the bats.  

Venezuela definitely has the edge with starting pitching.  I don’t know who they would use to start in this game, but with seven capable options to choose from (Pablo López, Martín Pérez, Jesús Luzardo, Eduardo Rodriguez, Luis Garcia, Germán Márquez, Ranger Suárez), I would guess that they have a huge advantage at the beginning of this battle.

I have no idea who the U.S. is planning to use as their #1 SP once this round begins.  As mentioned earlier, with Kershaw and Cortes out, the options are looking thin.  Sure, you have a St. Louis legend in 41-year-old Adam Wainwright or you could go to Lance Lynn (age 35), but with either choice, I don’t like how this lines up for a potential three-game winning streak en route to a Championship.  The U.S. will need to score some runs early and then go to that high-quality bullpen to finish this game.  

With home-field advantage on their side in Phoenix, Arizona, I’ll take the USA in a close game.

Winner: USA

SEMIFINALS GAME 1

Quarterfinals Game 1 winner: Korea vs. Quarterfinals Game 3 winner: Dominican Republic

I like this Korean team, but just not as much as the Dominican Republic squad.  This will be the game where we realize that the Korean pitching, though very good, won’t be able to match up with the Dominican bats.  

The Dominican team will likely be throwing Alcantara or Cristian Javier to start in this one and that gives me enough confidence to put them into the Championship game.  

Winner: Dominican Republic

SEMIFINALS GAME 2

Quarterfinals Game 2 winner: Japan vs. Quarterfinals Game 4 winner: USA

This is the matchup of the tournament if it comes to this.  Team USA is the defending Champion.  Japan has won this event two times in four tries.  Ideally, I’d like to wait until this potential matchup to actually happen before making a pick, which would then give me an opportunity to see both teams play five games before they meet…but, that’s not how this works.  

My gut feeling is telling me to pick the USA.  They have, arguably, the best offensive balance and bench options in the field and a bullpen that’s as good as any.  AGAIN (and I emphasize “again”) it’s that darn mediocre starting pitching that concerns me for the U.S.  It does not match up with what Japan will likely be throwing out there in this game.  

Japan has never missed the Semis in this event.  4-for-4.  They don’t get intimidated by where they play.  In fact, I hope someday the WBC decision-makers decide that maybe it would be fair to have another country host the Semifinals and Championship rounds once in a while.  It’s always in the U.S., which seems a bit unfair. 

Anyway, I’m talking myself into picking Japan.  Their lineup is good enough to score some runs and their pitching is certainly good enough to keep the USA offense at bay.  Yeah, it’s settled.  

Winner: Japan

CHAMPIONSHIP

Semifinals Game 1 winner: Dominican Republic vs. Semifinals Game 2 winner: Japan

After talking myself into picking Japan over the United States in the last round, I now need to pump the brakes a bit and realize that this is the Championship game.  This isn’t a Best-of-3 series or longer.  It’s a winner take all game and that means that both teams will certainly be unloading their full arsenals to do whatever is needed to take home the top prize.

It’s obvious that the Dominican Republic has the better overall lineup.  Japan’s is rock solid and this is a lineup that I am looking forward to watching as this tournament progresses. It’s hard to really know how good it is until I can see it in action, but I do know that the Dominican lineup is great.  I’ve seen all of those players hit.  Other than the catchers, Gary Sánchez and Francisco Mejia (not sure who will be starting this game), I see no weaknesses in the rest of the lineup.  The bench is similar to the USA, in that most of them would be starting on any other team.  Even if Japan has all of its best players from the NPB, I highly doubt they go as deep on the bench.  The advantage goes to the Dominican Republic.

Pitching is a different story.  I think both teams are about even.  The depth of the starting pitching favors Japan, and the bullpens from all I have researched, are arguably the top two in the tournament.  I’ll give a slight edge in overall pitching to Japan.

It’s close.  If this was a Best-of-7 series, I’d watch every game and wouldn’t be surprised if it went to Game 7.  You can flip a coin here, but because I refuse to do that in March Madness when I have a toss-up pick, I won’t be doing it here.  

CHAMPION: Dominican Republic 

Final Thought: My goal was to finish writing this before the start of the tournament tonight at 11 p.m. eastern.  Thankfully, I did it just in the nick of time. So my picks are officially in and my confidence right now is pretty high, as it usually is before March Madness begins. Unfortunately, all it takes is one upset to bust your bracket. The same is true with my first attempt at predicting the WBC winners.

I hope everyone enjoys the Classic. I will be posting some updates and thoughts throughout.

Thank you for joining me on this "quest" as I like to call it. This will be a newsletter with opinion pieces, recaps, and more about Major League Baseball. There is a lot I want to get to before opening day. I plan on posting frequently during spring training and daily once the regular season begins on Thursday, March 30th.

WHO I AM

I'm the kind of fan who follows Major League Baseball year-round and not just in-season as many do.  I often wake up thinking about baseball and go to bed wondering about the latest happenings, regardless if it's midsummer or midwinter. This is a game I started taking seriously as a fan in the early 90s.  I'm 40 and am thankful to be old enough to have seen the difference between how baseball was played a few decades ago in comparison to today.  There have been numerous changes in the major leagues, especially over the last few years, and we'll see how they impact the game going forward.  I have my reservations about some of these new and "permanent" rules, which I'll get into as the regular season nears.  

The bottom line is this: I enjoy writing.  I've written many articles in a private fantasy baseball league since 2004.  There's a core group of us that have kept it going from the inaugural season to where it is now, and if I were to pinpoint exactly when I became interested in writing about this game, then I would have no choice but to mention our fantasy league as my starting point.  Between posting daily updates, and weekly reviews, as well as off-season stories and happenings within our dynasty league for nearly 20 years, I feel confident about putting words on the page in a public setting.

THE IDEA BEHIND 'BASEBALL FAN PERSPECTIVE'

I'm thinking of this blog/newsletter as a chance to clear my mind every day about the game we follow and enjoy.  It's not just about writing the same old stuff you can find on mainstream sites, usually from the viewpoint of a paid sports writer in the media.  Their job is to write about baseball in a way that makes the fan want more of the game and to keep coming back, even if they put a negative spin on something like a questionable decision made by MLB. 

Sports media needs us in the same way that the leagues they're covering need the writers to tell the fans to remain fans.  That might seem complicated, but put simply, coverage of sports as we know it today, wouldn't be around without the fans.

This blog will not be sugarcoating stories.  I'm not here to try to make you love baseball and feel pressured into finding a silver lining with every stupid decision the commissioner, a team, or a player makes. As fans, that's not our job.  We watch because we either enjoy the game as it is or because we have something at stake based on the outcome.  We shouldn't be following just because the league or media patronizes us into thinking they know what is best for the paying customer and fan.  I have never bought into that idea. 

If the day ever arrives when professional baseball is unwatchable and unrecognizable, then I will walk away from it.  Give us the product that most of us want, and we'll stick around.  Ultimately, the fans should be able to dictate that.

What I will attempt with this blog is to be real with you; from one fan to another.  I have no doubt that you and other readers will disagree at times with some of my takes and that is fine.  That is what talking about sports will inevitably bring about.  Agreements and disagreements, but all with the purpose of starting a respectable conversation.  We can enjoy talking about the game whether our ideas are the same or not.  

I've always looked at it like this: If it's worth arguing about, then at the very least, it means that both sides care.  The joy of talking about baseball with you is what my main goal will be.  Some of the talks will be positive (hopefully more often than not) and some will naturally be negative because the storyline calls for it.  We all have our opinions, and after each post, please feel free to chime in and discuss any topic regarding anything about baseball, even if it is not mentioned in the article. 

I have no doubt that there will be days when I don't write about a hot topic, so feel free to bring it up.  This place is for all of us.  We're the fans who keep the game going.  Our opinions matter and I invite all of you to join in conversations going forward.  

I appreciate you giving this newsletter a chance.  I'm looking forward to getting to know you during the season.  With spring training games already in progress and The World Baseball Classic starting on March 7th, there will be plenty to talk about this month.  Stay tuned!